Ari Wasserman is impressed with SMU's Recruiting Appeal
Posted: Mon Aug 02, 2021 12:26 pmFrom Ari Wasserman's article in The Athletic today, Theory #5 out of 5:
Theory 5: The Big 12 leftovers are in trouble
In the 2021 recruiting cycle, each of the top 15 players in the state of Texas in the 247Sports Composite rankings signed with either Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, Texas A&M, LSU or Oklahoma.
In the 2020 cycle, nine of the top 15 players in Texas went to either Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, Texas A&M or Oklahoma.
So you could make the case that not much is changing for the Big 12 leftovers. But there are some exceptions to how recruiting plays out, especially for the “other” Big 12 programs located in Texas. In the 2020 cycle, TCU signed three of the top 15 players in the state of Texas, most notably five-star running back Zach Evans of Houston North Shore. Yes, Evans had a strange recruitment, but he ended up at TCU and could be one of the best running backs in the Big 12 this year.
The question: Are those days over?
Texas is the primary feeding ground for Big 12 programs. But if most of the elite prospects are going to be drawn to SEC programs or Ohio State, how many quality players will be left for the rest of the schools to pursue? Take this into account, too: SMU has really ramped up its recruiting efforts. SMU will be a much more attractive program once the Playoff expands as you could make the case that the Mustangs will have an easier path to the postseason than middle-tier Power 5 programs. SMU is suddenly a factor for solid three- and four-star prospects — something that wasn’t the case until recently.
Things may change with more realignment. The AAC and Big 12 leftovers may make a move. More changes are on the horizon. No matter how it shakes it out, though, the Big 12 leftovers will likely have a more difficult time attracting top-level players.
Theory 5: The Big 12 leftovers are in trouble
In the 2021 recruiting cycle, each of the top 15 players in the state of Texas in the 247Sports Composite rankings signed with either Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, Texas A&M, LSU or Oklahoma.
In the 2020 cycle, nine of the top 15 players in Texas went to either Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, Texas A&M or Oklahoma.
So you could make the case that not much is changing for the Big 12 leftovers. But there are some exceptions to how recruiting plays out, especially for the “other” Big 12 programs located in Texas. In the 2020 cycle, TCU signed three of the top 15 players in the state of Texas, most notably five-star running back Zach Evans of Houston North Shore. Yes, Evans had a strange recruitment, but he ended up at TCU and could be one of the best running backs in the Big 12 this year.
The question: Are those days over?
Texas is the primary feeding ground for Big 12 programs. But if most of the elite prospects are going to be drawn to SEC programs or Ohio State, how many quality players will be left for the rest of the schools to pursue? Take this into account, too: SMU has really ramped up its recruiting efforts. SMU will be a much more attractive program once the Playoff expands as you could make the case that the Mustangs will have an easier path to the postseason than middle-tier Power 5 programs. SMU is suddenly a factor for solid three- and four-star prospects — something that wasn’t the case until recently.
Things may change with more realignment. The AAC and Big 12 leftovers may make a move. More changes are on the horizon. No matter how it shakes it out, though, the Big 12 leftovers will likely have a more difficult time attracting top-level players.