Pony NATE-tion: SMU faces biggest challenge at Cincinnati
Posted: Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:22 amPony NATE-tion: SMU faces season's biggest challenge at Cincinnati
Mustangs hope to interrupt Bearcats' undefeated season
Posted on 11/17/2021 by PonyFans.com
PonyFans.com is proud to have journalism student Nate back as a guest columnist for the 2021 season. This week, Nate looks back at the Mustangs' convincing win over UCF and previews Saturday's matchup at Cincinnati.
Feel free to post comments and constructive criticism, ask him questions, and/or give suggestions for upcoming columns! (He can be followed on Twitter at @Pony_NATE_tion.)
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SMU heads to Cincinnati for its biggest game of the season in terms of opponent and general spotlight Saturday at 2:30 against the Bearcats, who are ranked No. 3 in the country by the Associated Press and in the USA Today Coaches Poll, and No. 5 in the College Football Playoff rankings. The Mustangs are hoping to both keep their American Athletic Conference Championship hopes alive and spoil the Bearcats’ College Football Playoff hopes.
The Ponies come in riding high after emphatically snapping their two-game losing streak with a 55-28 thrashing of UCF.
It was arguably SMU’s best performance of the season despite the rocky start. After UCF took an early 14-7 lead, SMU’s offense kicked into gear and Jim Leavitt’s defense turned it up a notch. From that point on, SMU outscored UCF, 48-14. The offense was great, with Tanner Mordecai throwing for 392 yards and three touchdowns, to earn AAC Offensive Player of the Week honors, and the offense converting 65 percent of its third downs. The offense rolled up 633 yards, with 241 yards coming on the ground. The defense held UCF to just 35 percent on third down and tallied seven sacks.
It was the type of performance that eased the doubts that a rough two-week stretch created. SMU is still alive in the AAC title race but does not control its own destiny after the Memphis loss. The Mustangs need to win out against Cincy and Tulsa and need Cincinnati to lose next week against East Carolina as well. But the first step is going to Nippert Stadium and getting a win against one of the best coaches in the country in Luke Fickell.
SMU certainly is getting Cincinnati at a time when the undefeated Bearcats are looking a bit vulnerable. The Bearcats notched one-score wins against Navy and Tulsa, which is a signal that the team has been underachieving a bit. Regardless of the recent trend, the Bearcats are still as formidable an opponent as any team SMU has faced in recent memory.
Offensively, Cincy is led by quarterback Desmond Ridder, who returned to school and probably is happy he did. He has been very efficient, passing for 242 yards per game while completing 66 percent of his passes and throwing 22 touchdowns with just six interceptions. Ridder is also an efficient runner with 279 yards (this includes yards lost on sacks) and five touchdowns coming on the ground. Cincy’s offense ranks fifth in the AAC in yards per game (417.7), fifth in passing yards per game (244.7), fifth in rushing yards per game (173) and second in points per game (41.6).
Ridder has solid weapons around him, and the Bearcats lean most on running back Jerome Ford, the Alabama transfer who has racked up 888 yards on 6.3 yards per rush and 15 touchdowns. Ridder doesn’t have any superstars on the outside, but rather several solid options. Alec Pierce is his go-to option, leading the Bearcats in receptions (37) and yards (627). Ridder’s top red zone option is tight end Josh Whyle, who leads the team in receiving touchdowns with six. Ridder spreads the ball around well: eight receivers with 12 or more receptions and six or more receivers with 200 or more yards.
Cincy’s basic counting stats on offense aren’t terribly impressive, but it is able to put up big scoring numbers due to how efficient the offense is. Cincinnati is fantastic on third downs, converting a torrid 44.6 percent of its third downs. That ranks 35th in the country. The Bearcats also convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns at a very high rate of 72.3 percent.
Cincinnati is definitely not built on its offense though. The Bearcats defense is loaded with talent and is easily one of the best in the country. The Bearcats’ national rankings in major defensive categories are as follows:
• Defensive pass efficiency: 1 (95.2)
• Takeaways: 2 (25)
• Red zone defense: 3 (61.3 percent)
• Passing defense: 5 (164.4 yards per game)
• Scoring defense: 6 (16.2 points per game)
• Total defense: 13 (315.8 yards per game)
• Tackles for loss: 18 (69)
• Third down conversion percentage: 31 (35.3 percent)
• Sacks: 56 (23)
• Rushing defense: 69 (151.4 yards per game)
The numbers speak for themselves. This is an incredibly good defense that quite literally does everything well: Cincinnati gets off the field on third down, takes the ball away, defends the run, defends the pass, and gets in the backfield. It is really quite impressive.
The defense is led by linebacker Joel Dublanko, who leads the team in tackles with 85, has two sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss and eight quarterback hits. Cincy has a stable of good linebackers, including Deshawn Pace, who leads the team with four interceptions. The defense is led up front by star defensive lineman Myjai Sanders, who is projected by most to be a first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Sanders has 23 tackles and two sacks so far. Sanders is accompanied by the team leader in sacks and tackles for loss, Curtis Brooks, who has 3.5 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss to his name.
On top of the great front seven is an even better secondary. Ahamd “Sauce” Gardner is one of the best cornerbacks in the country and is almost a surefire first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Gardner has 25 tackles, two sacks, three interceptions and two pass breakups. He is accompanied in the back end with another stud cornerback in Coby Bryant, who has an incredible 11 pass breakups and three interceptions this season. This defense is scary from top to bottom.
One big question mark is the health status of SMU’s star wideout Danny Gray. Gray left the UCF game with an ankle injury and was on the sideline in a boot and on crutches. Head coach Sonny Dykes elaborated on his status Tuesday. “I think he'll progress. Danny is a quick healer normally. So we'll see what he can do tomorrow,” he said. “I think if he's going to play this week, he's going to need to do something tomorrow, but we'll see how he does."
Dykes also emphasized that he is not going to make this game bigger for his players. “Our guys are excited — they'll be excited to play,” he said. “They like challenges and this is obviously a challenge and it's a good barometer for us to see where we're at. I think we'll have the same approach we always do.”
SMU comes into this game playing for its postseason lives, but at the same time, almost a sense of playing with house money. SMU doesn’t have too much to lose and has a ton to gain from shocking the nation and upsetting Cincinnati.
To pull off the upset, the Mustangs need to check all of the typical boxes to succeed, which becomes even more important when playing an elite team. Mordecai needs to take care of the ball against one of the best defenses in the country at taking the ball away. SMU can stay in this game if the offense is able to convert third downs and red zone opportunities at a high rate (something SMU failed miserably at in the 2020 matchup). Defensively, Leavitt has done a good job of in-game adjustments, as we have seen the defense stiffen throughout the game as adjustments are made.
I’m not sure SMU can afford another slow start this week. The slow start against UCF will not be so easily overcome against the Bearcats. I hate to make one player seem so big, but Gray’s status is crucial to SMU’s chances at upsetting Cincinnati. Dylan Goffney did a good job breaking out as he filled in for Gray against UCF, but he isn’t the gamebreaker that Gray is.
I think the Mustangs can keep it close, but we’ll see the Bearcats pull away late. It should be a fun matchup Saturday afternoon as SMU tries to shock the world. I’ve got Cincinnati getting it done though.
Nate’s take: Cincy 41, SMU 30
Mustangs hope to interrupt Bearcats' undefeated season
Posted on 11/17/2021 by PonyFans.com
PonyFans.com is proud to have journalism student Nate back as a guest columnist for the 2021 season. This week, Nate looks back at the Mustangs' convincing win over UCF and previews Saturday's matchup at Cincinnati.
Feel free to post comments and constructive criticism, ask him questions, and/or give suggestions for upcoming columns! (He can be followed on Twitter at @Pony_NATE_tion.)
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
SMU heads to Cincinnati for its biggest game of the season in terms of opponent and general spotlight Saturday at 2:30 against the Bearcats, who are ranked No. 3 in the country by the Associated Press and in the USA Today Coaches Poll, and No. 5 in the College Football Playoff rankings. The Mustangs are hoping to both keep their American Athletic Conference Championship hopes alive and spoil the Bearcats’ College Football Playoff hopes.
The Ponies come in riding high after emphatically snapping their two-game losing streak with a 55-28 thrashing of UCF.
It was arguably SMU’s best performance of the season despite the rocky start. After UCF took an early 14-7 lead, SMU’s offense kicked into gear and Jim Leavitt’s defense turned it up a notch. From that point on, SMU outscored UCF, 48-14. The offense was great, with Tanner Mordecai throwing for 392 yards and three touchdowns, to earn AAC Offensive Player of the Week honors, and the offense converting 65 percent of its third downs. The offense rolled up 633 yards, with 241 yards coming on the ground. The defense held UCF to just 35 percent on third down and tallied seven sacks.
It was the type of performance that eased the doubts that a rough two-week stretch created. SMU is still alive in the AAC title race but does not control its own destiny after the Memphis loss. The Mustangs need to win out against Cincy and Tulsa and need Cincinnati to lose next week against East Carolina as well. But the first step is going to Nippert Stadium and getting a win against one of the best coaches in the country in Luke Fickell.
SMU certainly is getting Cincinnati at a time when the undefeated Bearcats are looking a bit vulnerable. The Bearcats notched one-score wins against Navy and Tulsa, which is a signal that the team has been underachieving a bit. Regardless of the recent trend, the Bearcats are still as formidable an opponent as any team SMU has faced in recent memory.
Offensively, Cincy is led by quarterback Desmond Ridder, who returned to school and probably is happy he did. He has been very efficient, passing for 242 yards per game while completing 66 percent of his passes and throwing 22 touchdowns with just six interceptions. Ridder is also an efficient runner with 279 yards (this includes yards lost on sacks) and five touchdowns coming on the ground. Cincy’s offense ranks fifth in the AAC in yards per game (417.7), fifth in passing yards per game (244.7), fifth in rushing yards per game (173) and second in points per game (41.6).
Ridder has solid weapons around him, and the Bearcats lean most on running back Jerome Ford, the Alabama transfer who has racked up 888 yards on 6.3 yards per rush and 15 touchdowns. Ridder doesn’t have any superstars on the outside, but rather several solid options. Alec Pierce is his go-to option, leading the Bearcats in receptions (37) and yards (627). Ridder’s top red zone option is tight end Josh Whyle, who leads the team in receiving touchdowns with six. Ridder spreads the ball around well: eight receivers with 12 or more receptions and six or more receivers with 200 or more yards.
Cincy’s basic counting stats on offense aren’t terribly impressive, but it is able to put up big scoring numbers due to how efficient the offense is. Cincinnati is fantastic on third downs, converting a torrid 44.6 percent of its third downs. That ranks 35th in the country. The Bearcats also convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns at a very high rate of 72.3 percent.
Cincinnati is definitely not built on its offense though. The Bearcats defense is loaded with talent and is easily one of the best in the country. The Bearcats’ national rankings in major defensive categories are as follows:
• Defensive pass efficiency: 1 (95.2)
• Takeaways: 2 (25)
• Red zone defense: 3 (61.3 percent)
• Passing defense: 5 (164.4 yards per game)
• Scoring defense: 6 (16.2 points per game)
• Total defense: 13 (315.8 yards per game)
• Tackles for loss: 18 (69)
• Third down conversion percentage: 31 (35.3 percent)
• Sacks: 56 (23)
• Rushing defense: 69 (151.4 yards per game)
The numbers speak for themselves. This is an incredibly good defense that quite literally does everything well: Cincinnati gets off the field on third down, takes the ball away, defends the run, defends the pass, and gets in the backfield. It is really quite impressive.
The defense is led by linebacker Joel Dublanko, who leads the team in tackles with 85, has two sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss and eight quarterback hits. Cincy has a stable of good linebackers, including Deshawn Pace, who leads the team with four interceptions. The defense is led up front by star defensive lineman Myjai Sanders, who is projected by most to be a first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Sanders has 23 tackles and two sacks so far. Sanders is accompanied by the team leader in sacks and tackles for loss, Curtis Brooks, who has 3.5 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss to his name.
On top of the great front seven is an even better secondary. Ahamd “Sauce” Gardner is one of the best cornerbacks in the country and is almost a surefire first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Gardner has 25 tackles, two sacks, three interceptions and two pass breakups. He is accompanied in the back end with another stud cornerback in Coby Bryant, who has an incredible 11 pass breakups and three interceptions this season. This defense is scary from top to bottom.
One big question mark is the health status of SMU’s star wideout Danny Gray. Gray left the UCF game with an ankle injury and was on the sideline in a boot and on crutches. Head coach Sonny Dykes elaborated on his status Tuesday. “I think he'll progress. Danny is a quick healer normally. So we'll see what he can do tomorrow,” he said. “I think if he's going to play this week, he's going to need to do something tomorrow, but we'll see how he does."
Dykes also emphasized that he is not going to make this game bigger for his players. “Our guys are excited — they'll be excited to play,” he said. “They like challenges and this is obviously a challenge and it's a good barometer for us to see where we're at. I think we'll have the same approach we always do.”
SMU comes into this game playing for its postseason lives, but at the same time, almost a sense of playing with house money. SMU doesn’t have too much to lose and has a ton to gain from shocking the nation and upsetting Cincinnati.
To pull off the upset, the Mustangs need to check all of the typical boxes to succeed, which becomes even more important when playing an elite team. Mordecai needs to take care of the ball against one of the best defenses in the country at taking the ball away. SMU can stay in this game if the offense is able to convert third downs and red zone opportunities at a high rate (something SMU failed miserably at in the 2020 matchup). Defensively, Leavitt has done a good job of in-game adjustments, as we have seen the defense stiffen throughout the game as adjustments are made.
I’m not sure SMU can afford another slow start this week. The slow start against UCF will not be so easily overcome against the Bearcats. I hate to make one player seem so big, but Gray’s status is crucial to SMU’s chances at upsetting Cincinnati. Dylan Goffney did a good job breaking out as he filled in for Gray against UCF, but he isn’t the gamebreaker that Gray is.
I think the Mustangs can keep it close, but we’ll see the Bearcats pull away late. It should be a fun matchup Saturday afternoon as SMU tries to shock the world. I’ve got Cincinnati getting it done though.
Nate’s take: Cincy 41, SMU 30