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As we have seen this past weekend, the two teams SMU lost close games to are pretty darn good. And UNT hung around much closer to Memphis than they did with us. As we enter conference play, we have to be considered one of the favorites for the title.

We open against UCF, who opened the season as a pre-season favorite and is 3-1 coming into the game, with only a loss to Louisville adding a blemish to the record. Their defense, as expected, is leading the way, not having allowed a team to score more than 20 points all season.

A really intriguing matchup in this game is the interior OL for SMU against the UCF DTs. Those areas have been a strength for both team this year, and the dive up the middle has been the only consistent running game for SMU against the better teams. Against a fast defense like UCF, a threat up the middle is important to keep the LBs from cheating back into pass coverage.

A second big matchup is going to be the UCF huge OTs against SMU's DEs, where the Paul + Samuels combo really stepped up against TCU. Against Plumlee, the defense has to be able to maintain the edge against the running game, but also create pressure without losing contain against a scrambling QB. It is a difficult task, especially for a young rotation.

Finally, the UCF LB group is really good. They are going to clog up the middle of the field in the passing game. I suspect that SMU is going to have to win at the outside WR spot in order to move the ball consistently. Dixon/Kerley/Corrales are going to have a ton of opportunities in this game.

This will really be a game of contrasting styles. SMU is going to try and speed the game up and run at a fast pace, while UCF is going to run power and really try to slow the game down. UCF is much more similar to TCU than Maryland. While I think our LB and S group have the ability to play much better against the run, they haven't shown it yet, and it will be a problem again in this game.

That said, there are three areas that make UCF different from TCU. First, Plumlee really struggled against both ACC teams, throwing for less than 200 against Louisville and under 100 yards against GT. And a completion percentage under 50% in both games. He is not the efficient QB that Tagli or Duggen were against SMU. Second, their RB rotation isn't nearly at the same level of skill of TCU's. Or even Maryland's for that matter. Third, UCF doesn't go deep. They haven't rotated a lot of players this year, and I think they will wear down if SMU is successful at driving a high pace.

When I predicted the TCU game, I said that if Duggan was good, TCU would win, but I didn't believe the hype so I picked SMU. He ended up being the difference. Plumlee isn't Duggan. When you go watch that TCU tape, SMU won their matchups a lot. But when they lost, they let up huge running plays, or Duggan made a perfect pass. I think two things happen in this game. When UCF breaks a run, it won't be as explosive as TCU was. And Plumlee isn't going to be able to make the plays in the passing game that Max did. They will move the ball, and Plumlee is going to pick up some third and longs with some scrambles when our DEs lose contain and get over aggressive. But SMU is going to score points, as they have against everyone this season, and UCF is going to struggle to keep up.

SMU 31 - UCF 24

Love it, JB, especially your outcome prediction!

All good points and insightful. I’d love to see improvement in our tackling this week.

You bring up a good point. Duggan clearly had a point to prove after, in his mind, personally losing to us last year. He was extra motivated, you might say. He’s a fine quarterback.

Anyways, thanks for the excellent analysis and thoughts.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. I miss reading Nate's game previews, and find myself looking forward to these now. Go Mustangs!

ponyboy wrote:You bring up a good point. Duggan clearly had a point to prove after, in his mind, personally losing to us last year. He was extra motivated, you might say. He’s a fine quarterback.

Anyways, thanks for the excellent analysis and thoughts.

Duggan is clearly a much different QB than he was in the past. It makes TCU a completely different team.

2019 - 53% completion, 6.1 per attempt, 15 TD 10 INT, 113 rating
2020 - 61%, 7.5, 10, 4, 134
2021 - 64%, 9.0, 16, 6, 157
2022 - 75%, 10.6, 11, 0, 202

JasonB wrote:

ponyboy wrote:You bring up a good point. Duggan clearly had a point to prove after, in his mind, personally losing to us last year. He was extra motivated, you might say. He’s a fine quarterback.

Anyways, thanks for the excellent analysis and thoughts.

Duggan is clearly a much different QB than he was in the past. It makes TCU a completely different team.

2019 - 53% completion, 6.1 per attempt, 15 TD 10 INT, 113 rating
2020 - 61%, 7.5, 10, 4, 134
2021 - 64%, 9.0, 16, 6, 157
2022 - 75%, 10.6, 11, 0, 202

And has shown he's a threat to run as well

JasonB wrote:A really intriguing matchup in this game is the interior OL for SMU against the UCF DTs. Those areas have been a strength for both team this year, and the dive up the middle has been the only consistent running game for SMU against the better teams. Against a fast defense like UCF, a threat up the middle is important to keep the LBs from cheating back into pass coverage.

Finally, the UCF LB group is really good. They are going to clog up the middle of the field in the passing game. I suspect that SMU is going to have to win at the outside WR spot in order to move the ball consistently. Dixon/Kerley/Corrales are going to have a ton of opportunities in this game.

And other than Gardner's 39 yard TD run, SMU's running game was anemic once again averaging less than 3 yards per carry. Also, we all know Tanner likes to throw a lot of back shoulder passes on the outside when he finds guys in one on one coverage. Was really disappointed in Corrales in particular for not making adjustments to come back to the ball. I'd like to see more Dylan Goffney. He showed some toughness on the one catch he had last night.

Goffney did not impact the game like we need to him to. Our second and slot receivers just didn't have an impact.

Moving JT to tackle instead of guard took away the ability for us to run up the middle. Hickman and Biss had great blocks on the 39 yard run but we were never able to replicate that the rest of the evening. Biss is really strong, but he isn't athletic. So he can slowly push people off the line, but it takes time for the hole to develop. If he is free, he doesn't get to the next line and block in space well.