Thoughts on Cincy
Posted: Sun Oct 23, 2022 11:34 am- Not to state the obvious, but the wind had a massive impact on the game. And it wasn't just us - go check out Ewers' stats for UT yesterday. I felt going in that Cincy had an advantage, but the wind gave them a gigantic advantage because their running game is so much better than ours. If you told me going in that the conditions would make passing that difficult, I would have put Cincy to win by 14.
- Lots of plays in the game, but we lost because we lost the turnover battle 1-0 and gave them three points. That early pick ended up being the difference in the game. Great job by the defense to hold them to 3, but that really cost us.
- Symons has done a great job of adjusting to personnel and flipping back and forth between the 3-4 and the 4-2-5. 91 and 98 are both playing much better than they did at the beginning of the season. Still not getting enough production out of Chatman and Levelston as we would like, but the DTs overall are holding their own now more like we expected coming into the season.
- Most surprising part to me yesterday was that our DEs weren't able to generate as much pressure as I thought they would. Cincy has a pretty high sack rate given up. Probably because we were focused on defending the run, but I expected more.
- A little disappointing that we didn't clog the middle better on pass plays. Especially when Cincy was going against the wind, we needed to force them to throw to the outside, but they hit several passes right over the middle for easy conversions. We just aren't where we need to be athletically at LB and S.
- On offense, TM had a really bad game. If I were to take a really critical eye, I would say at the beginning of the year, he got bailed out locking on Rice and throwing it up for him to get. Once Rice got hurt, that went away, and the passing game has been less consistent. There is a lot of Ben Hicks and Bo Levi showing up and it kills the rhythm of the offense. Stick with the top option too long, then by the time you get to the others, they are almost through their routes, so you lose the opportunity to take a shot, and it becomes playground ball/scramble drill with a QB who doesn't run enough. Then you add yesterday not throwing the ball away to avoid sacks... just not a good performance at all.
- Stone - You could see in the game that when he throws a deep ball, he puts arc under it to try and allow receivers to make a play on the ball. It didn't work (and was a little naive) yesterday because the wind just takes those types of throws and puts them 20 yards beyond the WR. He is also going to tuck it and run a lot more frequently, and runs a true zone read on the RPO, which helps the offense a bit. It is an aspect that is important to the RL offense, and something he has never had here. He is also definitely going to get nicked up, so you need players in the wings ready to go. Just remember, his drives were significantly aided by penalties. He is going to be hit and miss. If I were RL, I would actually start TM and then plan to alternate every time a drive doesn't finish in points. TM and PS are such different QBs, it is a nightmare for a DC to plan for, and I would use it to our advantage.
- I wrote a way too long winded dissection of the running game last week, and with Wheaton starting and Levine playing a lot you can see what is happening. Our OL wins in blocking their assignments, they just don't get out to the next level. When our other backs run, the running plays are slow to develop, so the LBs fill the holes and stop us. Wheaton hits the hole before the other team can react, takes advantage of some good blocks, and gets out in the open. That is what we need. Levine is effective because even though he doesn't hit the hole as quick, he is big enough to run over the LB or S who tries to fill the gap, and he can get 3 or 4 yards. We need to stick with those two moving forward and stop trying to run plays to the outside and expecting our guys to hold their blocks for a long time or move the second level. Good adjustment in the running attack, and it is nice to see Wheaton start to get healthy and we can see what he brings to the table.
- Finally, our secondary players need to start showing up. One of the most disappointing parts of the season has been the inability of Maryland, Dixon, Kerley, Daniels and Goffney to consistently make plays. The first four have the athletic ability to make big plays, and Goffney wins his routes enough to be a consistent receiver. Part of it is TM not checking to other routes quick enough, so maybe we see more productivity with him coming into the game. But It has been disappointing so far.
I'll close with this - the "November swoon" under Sonny was never really a thing. The fact is that, including this year, for the last 4 years, we beat the teams we should beat, and then we find ways to lose to really good teams. Yes, Sonny found ways to beat TCU, but those TCU teams were not really good. They weren't a top 10 team. For the most part, we end up beating teams that are below us in the 247 composite rankings, and we lose to the teams that are above us (although usually those games are really competitive). Yes, there were occasional gaffes against worse teams after we lost our undefeated run, but by and large the schedules were always backloaded and it allowed us to run up a great record against bad teams.
- Lots of plays in the game, but we lost because we lost the turnover battle 1-0 and gave them three points. That early pick ended up being the difference in the game. Great job by the defense to hold them to 3, but that really cost us.
- Symons has done a great job of adjusting to personnel and flipping back and forth between the 3-4 and the 4-2-5. 91 and 98 are both playing much better than they did at the beginning of the season. Still not getting enough production out of Chatman and Levelston as we would like, but the DTs overall are holding their own now more like we expected coming into the season.
- Most surprising part to me yesterday was that our DEs weren't able to generate as much pressure as I thought they would. Cincy has a pretty high sack rate given up. Probably because we were focused on defending the run, but I expected more.
- A little disappointing that we didn't clog the middle better on pass plays. Especially when Cincy was going against the wind, we needed to force them to throw to the outside, but they hit several passes right over the middle for easy conversions. We just aren't where we need to be athletically at LB and S.
- On offense, TM had a really bad game. If I were to take a really critical eye, I would say at the beginning of the year, he got bailed out locking on Rice and throwing it up for him to get. Once Rice got hurt, that went away, and the passing game has been less consistent. There is a lot of Ben Hicks and Bo Levi showing up and it kills the rhythm of the offense. Stick with the top option too long, then by the time you get to the others, they are almost through their routes, so you lose the opportunity to take a shot, and it becomes playground ball/scramble drill with a QB who doesn't run enough. Then you add yesterday not throwing the ball away to avoid sacks... just not a good performance at all.
- Stone - You could see in the game that when he throws a deep ball, he puts arc under it to try and allow receivers to make a play on the ball. It didn't work (and was a little naive) yesterday because the wind just takes those types of throws and puts them 20 yards beyond the WR. He is also going to tuck it and run a lot more frequently, and runs a true zone read on the RPO, which helps the offense a bit. It is an aspect that is important to the RL offense, and something he has never had here. He is also definitely going to get nicked up, so you need players in the wings ready to go. Just remember, his drives were significantly aided by penalties. He is going to be hit and miss. If I were RL, I would actually start TM and then plan to alternate every time a drive doesn't finish in points. TM and PS are such different QBs, it is a nightmare for a DC to plan for, and I would use it to our advantage.
- I wrote a way too long winded dissection of the running game last week, and with Wheaton starting and Levine playing a lot you can see what is happening. Our OL wins in blocking their assignments, they just don't get out to the next level. When our other backs run, the running plays are slow to develop, so the LBs fill the holes and stop us. Wheaton hits the hole before the other team can react, takes advantage of some good blocks, and gets out in the open. That is what we need. Levine is effective because even though he doesn't hit the hole as quick, he is big enough to run over the LB or S who tries to fill the gap, and he can get 3 or 4 yards. We need to stick with those two moving forward and stop trying to run plays to the outside and expecting our guys to hold their blocks for a long time or move the second level. Good adjustment in the running attack, and it is nice to see Wheaton start to get healthy and we can see what he brings to the table.
- Finally, our secondary players need to start showing up. One of the most disappointing parts of the season has been the inability of Maryland, Dixon, Kerley, Daniels and Goffney to consistently make plays. The first four have the athletic ability to make big plays, and Goffney wins his routes enough to be a consistent receiver. Part of it is TM not checking to other routes quick enough, so maybe we see more productivity with him coming into the game. But It has been disappointing so far.
I'll close with this - the "November swoon" under Sonny was never really a thing. The fact is that, including this year, for the last 4 years, we beat the teams we should beat, and then we find ways to lose to really good teams. Yes, Sonny found ways to beat TCU, but those TCU teams were not really good. They weren't a top 10 team. For the most part, we end up beating teams that are below us in the 247 composite rankings, and we lose to the teams that are above us (although usually those games are really competitive). Yes, there were occasional gaffes against worse teams after we lost our undefeated run, but by and large the schedules were always backloaded and it allowed us to run up a great record against bad teams.