Post Signing Day Roster Analysis
Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:48 pmOverall, not unexpected. Homeruns in the transfer portal and mostly developmental projects in high school. Keep in mind that the staff as a whole hasn't been in Texas for a long time to earn the trust of the high school coaching community, and on top of that TCU has momentum, Houston made the jump, and Baylor and Tech both have staffs with massive Texas ties, so it isn't unexpected. I thought I would walk through position by position about where we stand right now.
QB: We lose a big recruit with TM, but Preston was a higher rated recruit and will be great next year. Jennings showed a lot in his time, and Keldric is actually a higher rated recruit than Jennings. We need 4 QBs just in case something bad happens, so I anticipate that we will add a senior transfer later in the cycle or the spring to serve as a third string QB. Someone who played at a lower level and wants a quality grad degree or an older QB who has been a reserve for a long time and is looking at an MBA or something.
RB - We know we are losing TJ, who would actually be the 6th highest rated recruit on our roster right now (although he was a solidly rated recruit). We gain Knighton, who was a stud HS recruit, is going to do really good things here, and is only behind Wheaton in terms of recruiting rating. In recruiting strength order, we have Wheaton, Knighton, Dawson, Gardner, Epton, Siggers, Lavine. More than enough numbers. Everyone has heard the smoke about the A&M RB, which would certainly imply that others are leaving at some point. I would expect to get to 5 one way or another. We have definitely upgraded the roster.
WR: We definitely lose Rice (the 5th highest rated recruit on our roster), Wiggins (6th), and Upshaw (16). Maybe Corrales as well (13th). We add #7, 8, 10, 12, and 14. We have 13 left if Corrales stays, which is enough numbers-wise. While Smith and Lavender are both very nice recruits, the others are just solid recruits. Lonnie Johnson is the lowest rated recruit, rated DITR by Rivals, but is okay by ESPN and 247, and had 2 P5 offers, so he isn't a nobody. So we have increased numbers, and don't really have any reaches, but we haven't replaced the talent level of Rice or Wiggins from a strong recruit standpoint. I know we tried but missed on the Arkansas WR, and I wouldn't be surprised if we are very active in the portal trying to get a top end WR. Otherwise, the position group has taken a step back.
TE: Maryland is great. We lose Redding, who was a DITR recruit. Who knows if Gonzalez and Matthews are coming back, and Allen hasn't shown anything so far. Tripp rates as our third highest TE (behind Maryland and Matthews), and is a very nice recruit. Technically we have 5, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see us bring another through the portal in if Matthews or Gonzalez move on. We have upgraded the talent of the group, but we need to add an experienced TE if Matthews and Gonzalez aren't going to be able to play.
OL: Out of 17 players we lose Condon (2), Bissinger (7 and I think he doesn't have eligibility left?), and Thomas (16). We add White (3), Woods (5), Gill (11), and Scott (17). Scott and Gill are DITR (although 247 likes gill). Woods as our 5th rated recruit is part of the problem - he is a solid recruit, don't get me wrong. But in other positions he would be middle of the pack rather than at the top end. We pretty much broke even, maybe a slight upgrade. Right now it seems like we have 14 on the roster, but Osborne, White, Sparks, Hickman, Bryant, and Ervin are the players I would consider really ready to play in a two deep. We all know about the A&M player, which would be a great add, and would be a 7th member of the 2 deep. How the staff views the development of Robinson, Waller, Larson, and Perdue is going to dictate whether or not we add more transfers, because we need to get up to 10 solid players. I would expect us to add two more (hopefully including the A&M player).
DT: Out of 12 right now (I am for now considering Roberts a DT and not a DE), we are losing Aho (7), Brown (8), and Newman (10). We bring in Roberts (2), Miller (6), and Allen (11). Definitely upgraded the room even though Allen is a true DITR. The challenge is that we only have two 1 technique players on the roster right now - Roberts and Sandjo. I expect that we will bring in one more transfer 1-technique. The 3 technique is set with Chatman running ahead of Wright and Roberts, and a whole slew of players that can play either DT or slide out to strong side DE.
DE: We lose Fite (7), Sneed (8), Coxe (11), and Wiley (12) out of 12 players on the roster. We gain Wimberly (4) and Flowers (9). Wimberly is a good recruit, who might be a strong side DE, might end up at DT. We probably upgraded the overall talent. This is a really stacked group with Levelston, Samuels, and Jones on the strong side and Paul, Smith, and Abiara on the weak side. Feel very good here going into next season and don't need to add anyone else.
LB: technically we add depth but downgrade talent (from a recruiting rating perspective). Out of 10 players, we lose ISM (1), Reid (3), and Phillips (9). We add Kilgore (6), Mayazona (8), and Walker (10). Walker is a true DITR, but his history at Liberty obviously suggests otherwise. With 7 on the roster, I am pretty confident that we will add more transfers here, because LB can play a big part on special teams. If we see the number of RB shrink, we may see the number of LB grow. The two Burns, Goree, Kilgore, and Farrar are all nice level recruits, but with very limited experience, and we saw Keke play NB a little in the bowl game. Walker is a really nice addition, but we need another with experience. Another thing to keep in mind is that shifting Levelston to DE, Chatman to the 3, and bring in true NT at the 1 will make our LB crew look a whole lot better.
Corner: Out of 10 players, we lose Lawton (4), Armani (7), and Westfall (9). We bring in Sanders (3), Muhammad (5), and Woods (10). We definitely upgraded. Woods came out of nowhere but was all Big 12 preseason and it a massive upgrade. This is an area we haven't recruited very well in the past, but we are finally up to 4 solid recruits (Rogers, Davis, Sanders, Muhammad). Woods and Sanders are your starters, Rogers has nice athleticism as a backup, Davis, McMorris, and Hall have shown flashes, and Muhammad is a nice recruit. We are replacing Armani and Westfall with a 2 year starter at Fresno who looks really good and an All Pac 12 player. Definitely an upgrade. I think we have good numbers here, are at a good talent level, and won't see any additional players come in.
NB: Really the only players we had this year were Crossley and Clay. Roberts was initially brought in to compete with Crossley and bounce between NB and S, but when Massey picked up the injury preseason it forced him to play safety. I can see us doing the same thing with McGill this year, who is a higher rated recruit than Crossley and a multi-year starter at Stanford. I have no idea if Clay is returning or not, and we also don't know if Keke is going to move back here. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't add more players here and move one of the corners (Hall?) over here during the spring, since we have 7 over there.
S: This is the big unknown. We know we lose Roberts (3) and Cromartie (5). Is Adimora going to return? What about NWO? Roberson I think has another year, but as hard as he works, he is a backup. Moses was a good recruit and is a starter going into next year, probably next to Massey, who was originally a DITR and was never fully healthy. Between S and NB, we need to go three deep, so we need 9 players. You need a full group because these guys can do well on special teams. Right now, we have Crossley, McGill, Clay, Adimora, NWO, Moses, Massey, and Roberson. A corner or Keke moving over makes in 9. McGill is an upgrade over Roberts, for sure, so we have upgraded the room, but there are a lot of unknowns on who is coming back. We had a last minute switch that went to Colorado, so I am guessing that we will see some additional attrition here, and that we will bring in someone to replace them. Unless there is a HS prospect that they like to immediately contribute (like Moses or the guy who went to Colorado), I suspect we will add a transfer to the group.
So, downgrades: QB room but we are fine, WR room and need transfer, LB and we need another transfer.
Upgrades: RB, TE but need another transfer, OL but need another transfer, DE, DT but need another NG transfer, CB, and S but need another transfer.
Overall team upgrade, and probably at a level to compete for the conference title in the downgraded AAC, but need to add some additional pieces in order to become the clear favorite to win the AAC next year, compete against OU and TCU, and become part of the national conversation.
Everyone contribute to NIL in order to make it happen
.
QB: We lose a big recruit with TM, but Preston was a higher rated recruit and will be great next year. Jennings showed a lot in his time, and Keldric is actually a higher rated recruit than Jennings. We need 4 QBs just in case something bad happens, so I anticipate that we will add a senior transfer later in the cycle or the spring to serve as a third string QB. Someone who played at a lower level and wants a quality grad degree or an older QB who has been a reserve for a long time and is looking at an MBA or something.
RB - We know we are losing TJ, who would actually be the 6th highest rated recruit on our roster right now (although he was a solidly rated recruit). We gain Knighton, who was a stud HS recruit, is going to do really good things here, and is only behind Wheaton in terms of recruiting rating. In recruiting strength order, we have Wheaton, Knighton, Dawson, Gardner, Epton, Siggers, Lavine. More than enough numbers. Everyone has heard the smoke about the A&M RB, which would certainly imply that others are leaving at some point. I would expect to get to 5 one way or another. We have definitely upgraded the roster.
WR: We definitely lose Rice (the 5th highest rated recruit on our roster), Wiggins (6th), and Upshaw (16). Maybe Corrales as well (13th). We add #7, 8, 10, 12, and 14. We have 13 left if Corrales stays, which is enough numbers-wise. While Smith and Lavender are both very nice recruits, the others are just solid recruits. Lonnie Johnson is the lowest rated recruit, rated DITR by Rivals, but is okay by ESPN and 247, and had 2 P5 offers, so he isn't a nobody. So we have increased numbers, and don't really have any reaches, but we haven't replaced the talent level of Rice or Wiggins from a strong recruit standpoint. I know we tried but missed on the Arkansas WR, and I wouldn't be surprised if we are very active in the portal trying to get a top end WR. Otherwise, the position group has taken a step back.
TE: Maryland is great. We lose Redding, who was a DITR recruit. Who knows if Gonzalez and Matthews are coming back, and Allen hasn't shown anything so far. Tripp rates as our third highest TE (behind Maryland and Matthews), and is a very nice recruit. Technically we have 5, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see us bring another through the portal in if Matthews or Gonzalez move on. We have upgraded the talent of the group, but we need to add an experienced TE if Matthews and Gonzalez aren't going to be able to play.
OL: Out of 17 players we lose Condon (2), Bissinger (7 and I think he doesn't have eligibility left?), and Thomas (16). We add White (3), Woods (5), Gill (11), and Scott (17). Scott and Gill are DITR (although 247 likes gill). Woods as our 5th rated recruit is part of the problem - he is a solid recruit, don't get me wrong. But in other positions he would be middle of the pack rather than at the top end. We pretty much broke even, maybe a slight upgrade. Right now it seems like we have 14 on the roster, but Osborne, White, Sparks, Hickman, Bryant, and Ervin are the players I would consider really ready to play in a two deep. We all know about the A&M player, which would be a great add, and would be a 7th member of the 2 deep. How the staff views the development of Robinson, Waller, Larson, and Perdue is going to dictate whether or not we add more transfers, because we need to get up to 10 solid players. I would expect us to add two more (hopefully including the A&M player).
DT: Out of 12 right now (I am for now considering Roberts a DT and not a DE), we are losing Aho (7), Brown (8), and Newman (10). We bring in Roberts (2), Miller (6), and Allen (11). Definitely upgraded the room even though Allen is a true DITR. The challenge is that we only have two 1 technique players on the roster right now - Roberts and Sandjo. I expect that we will bring in one more transfer 1-technique. The 3 technique is set with Chatman running ahead of Wright and Roberts, and a whole slew of players that can play either DT or slide out to strong side DE.
DE: We lose Fite (7), Sneed (8), Coxe (11), and Wiley (12) out of 12 players on the roster. We gain Wimberly (4) and Flowers (9). Wimberly is a good recruit, who might be a strong side DE, might end up at DT. We probably upgraded the overall talent. This is a really stacked group with Levelston, Samuels, and Jones on the strong side and Paul, Smith, and Abiara on the weak side. Feel very good here going into next season and don't need to add anyone else.
LB: technically we add depth but downgrade talent (from a recruiting rating perspective). Out of 10 players, we lose ISM (1), Reid (3), and Phillips (9). We add Kilgore (6), Mayazona (8), and Walker (10). Walker is a true DITR, but his history at Liberty obviously suggests otherwise. With 7 on the roster, I am pretty confident that we will add more transfers here, because LB can play a big part on special teams. If we see the number of RB shrink, we may see the number of LB grow. The two Burns, Goree, Kilgore, and Farrar are all nice level recruits, but with very limited experience, and we saw Keke play NB a little in the bowl game. Walker is a really nice addition, but we need another with experience. Another thing to keep in mind is that shifting Levelston to DE, Chatman to the 3, and bring in true NT at the 1 will make our LB crew look a whole lot better.
Corner: Out of 10 players, we lose Lawton (4), Armani (7), and Westfall (9). We bring in Sanders (3), Muhammad (5), and Woods (10). We definitely upgraded. Woods came out of nowhere but was all Big 12 preseason and it a massive upgrade. This is an area we haven't recruited very well in the past, but we are finally up to 4 solid recruits (Rogers, Davis, Sanders, Muhammad). Woods and Sanders are your starters, Rogers has nice athleticism as a backup, Davis, McMorris, and Hall have shown flashes, and Muhammad is a nice recruit. We are replacing Armani and Westfall with a 2 year starter at Fresno who looks really good and an All Pac 12 player. Definitely an upgrade. I think we have good numbers here, are at a good talent level, and won't see any additional players come in.
NB: Really the only players we had this year were Crossley and Clay. Roberts was initially brought in to compete with Crossley and bounce between NB and S, but when Massey picked up the injury preseason it forced him to play safety. I can see us doing the same thing with McGill this year, who is a higher rated recruit than Crossley and a multi-year starter at Stanford. I have no idea if Clay is returning or not, and we also don't know if Keke is going to move back here. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't add more players here and move one of the corners (Hall?) over here during the spring, since we have 7 over there.
S: This is the big unknown. We know we lose Roberts (3) and Cromartie (5). Is Adimora going to return? What about NWO? Roberson I think has another year, but as hard as he works, he is a backup. Moses was a good recruit and is a starter going into next year, probably next to Massey, who was originally a DITR and was never fully healthy. Between S and NB, we need to go three deep, so we need 9 players. You need a full group because these guys can do well on special teams. Right now, we have Crossley, McGill, Clay, Adimora, NWO, Moses, Massey, and Roberson. A corner or Keke moving over makes in 9. McGill is an upgrade over Roberts, for sure, so we have upgraded the room, but there are a lot of unknowns on who is coming back. We had a last minute switch that went to Colorado, so I am guessing that we will see some additional attrition here, and that we will bring in someone to replace them. Unless there is a HS prospect that they like to immediately contribute (like Moses or the guy who went to Colorado), I suspect we will add a transfer to the group.
So, downgrades: QB room but we are fine, WR room and need transfer, LB and we need another transfer.
Upgrades: RB, TE but need another transfer, OL but need another transfer, DE, DT but need another NG transfer, CB, and S but need another transfer.
Overall team upgrade, and probably at a level to compete for the conference title in the downgraded AAC, but need to add some additional pieces in order to become the clear favorite to win the AAC next year, compete against OU and TCU, and become part of the national conversation.
Everyone contribute to NIL in order to make it happen
.