My season preview
Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2023 1:38 pmAs we all wait for the ACC announcement, I thought I would fill the time by dropping this today... I'll go position by position and then conclude with my overall prediction.
QB - Preston Stone of course will be the starter. What makes Preston different from TM is that while TM was a good quarterback with nice tools, he never had the "it" factor that Preston does. While Preston is certainly able to make they typical throws, he also brings the magic from time to time. His arm strength isn't elite, but it is very solid. His aggressive mentality is very Brett Favre. Mobility wise, I would kind of compare him to Tony Romo - he isn't going to break long runs necessarily, but he will be elusive in the pocket and he can run when he wants to. He goes through his progressions really quickly, something we haven't seen around here in a long time. That is a part of his game that might end up being elite. Comparing him to TM, I don't think you are going to see the consistency that we got from TM when he was really on his game. That said, he is going to be much better at just finding a way to make something happen when the offense is sluggish. Kind of like the Cincy game, when TM completed a decent percentage (15/25) but for only 105 yards and took a bunch of sacks. Preston came in and had an awful completion percentage (6/15) but just found a way to move the team down the field and almost led a comeback. I think Preston will throw for around 3500 yards like TM did, but with a few more interceptions... I would not be surprised to see 35 TD with 15 INT. I think 2024 will be an elite season from Preston after he gets his feet wet this year. Jennings is a very capable backup. I expect Preston to perform at a B+ level in conference this season, finishing as a top 4 QB, but that is mainly due to inexperience. He clearly has A potential, we will just to see if he gets there this season or next.
RB - We have clearly upgraded here significantly and are a legit 5 deep. LJ and Rooster are both very good college football running backs. Velton is going to surprise people and is a very good change of pace back in college football. Lavine is obviously a great physical short yardage runner. Rooster has the potential to get drafted because he is explosive but also can run with surprising power for his size. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain that strength and intensity at 185 lbs for the entire season. Of course, there is plenty of depth and if he does get banged up, Velton is very able to replace him. The X factor here is Wheaton. Wheaton has the size/speed/explosiveness combo to be an elite back. We just don't know if it is going to happen this year or next. This group should be the top RB group in conference this year. I'll give them an A- going into the season, but they have the potential to go A+ if Camar shows what he has or Rooster is NFL ready.
WR - The group here is very good - at least two deep at all 3 WR positions. All players who can be above average in the AAC. The only concern I have is that we have seen Rhett's offense perform extremely well when he has a go-to elite WR. Back when he was OC, Roberson blew everyone up the first part of the season, got hurt, and the offense wasn't quite the same from that point on. Last season, Rice was the elite receiver who made things roll. Nobody has really emerged as that elite guy from this group. Keyshawn, Kerley, Hudson all have that potential, but we haven't quite seen anyone emerge yet. While a good, solid "B" rated receiving corp is good enough in the AAC when your OL is protecting and Preston is so good at rolling through progressions, against TCU and OU you need "that guy" who you can heave it to and who will just go up and make a play. Rice, Roberson, Proche, and Sutton have all provided that option in recent years. They all had the size and/or athleticism to go along with physicality to go up and catch a contested ball or draw a PI if you deed it. Everyone wants Kerley to be that guy, but I have never seen that type of physical play out of him. Keyshawn has the potential to be that guy - not speed, but just to out muscle someone and go get the ball. If someone steps forward, then this can be an A group. But until it happens, they are a B, and I think it is what keeps us from winning the OU and TCU games.
TE - Matthews-Harris playing so well in fall camp is really important. He gives us that solid guy who can be a decent blocker and go out and catch the ball. And the you have RJ the playmaker who if he more consistent this year, pushes this position to an elite level. He is a future NFL guy. Riordan and Moore both look ready to contribute already, and even Kam Allen looks like a real TE. I think this group is an upgrade over last season, and I'll give it a B+ as a top 4 group in conference, with the chance to be an A if Maryland is elite consistently.
LT - Bryant. He looks better and more fluid than he did last year. I will grade him as a B+ because I expect him to be on one of the all conference teams this season, but he has A- potential. I'm not sure if he is quite an NFL guy, but if he stays healthy he could be top of the conference. PJ Williams is behind him and will be a star in the future.
LG - Parr or Sparks. Last year, Biss was underappreciated and had a very good year, probably a B or a B+ as one of the better guards in conference. Very good in pass blocking and also good strength in the running game even though he didn't really make it to the second level very often. If Sparks starts, I'll give this a C, he will be an average starter in conference. Parr is the guy who I think has next level potential. Good size and strength, with the mobility to get out on screens and block at the second level. Parr brings this up to a B with the potential to be on an all conference list at B+ or A-. This is a position to watch to see if it ends up being an upgrade or a downgrade over last season.
C - Hickman or Clark. Last year, Hickman graded out really well in games, but his lack of size is a problem in certain matchups. And there are plays where he just gets beat, like in the Cincy game in the two point conversion we failed when we had a chance to tie. I know the coaches love him, and I know he grades out really well, he just doesn't dominate. Clark would have been an upgrade here, but came in massively overweight and we won't know if he can play a lot of snaps until later in the season. HIckman showed enough improvement in Spring and Fall camp to indicate that he is ready to improve. If he starts, I believe he will be above average in conference (not quite all-conference) and I would give us a B- rating (last year, he would have been C or C+). If Clark somehow makes it back, he will absolutely be all conference and this gets bumped up to a B+/A-.
RG - Osborne was second team all conference last season, and he looks significantly better to me. I expect him to perform at an A/A- level and be the best guard in conference.
RT - White has been another extremely pleasant surprise. Last year, JT played some here and struggled because he was supposed to play guard/center. And then Condon who wasn't great. White is a massive upgrade in size and athleticism. I expect him to be the best tackle in conference this year, and I'll give him an A rating, because I think he is an NFL guy. IMHO, he is the best tackle we have had since Beachum.
Strong side DE - Roberts. This was a below average position last year. We were depending on Coxe, and when he got hurt before the season, we never had anyone big enough to play this position. Roberts changes all of that. He is big enough to hold the edge against the run, and agile/strong/fast enough to be effective rushing the passer. His impact is going to be very similar to Tank Lawrence with the Cowboys - When Tank is there, yes he makes plays, but he might not rack up a ton of numbers. Then, all of a sudden when he is out, Micah Parsons isn't as effective rushing the passer and the Cowboys give up a ton of yards on the ground. Even if Roberts doesn't make a ton of tackles and/or sacks, his presence is really going to change the effectiveness of the defense. Backing him up is Samuels (who is developing really well and is going to be a beast in pass rushing downs) and Abiara. I am going to project that Roberts plays at an all-conference level... I'll mark the position as an A- just because I worry a little about run defense when Roberts isn't playing.
3-tech DT - Levelston added weight and looks great. He will split time with Chatman and you are going to see Stephan Wright make plays and Kori Roberson make plays here as well. There is no way that any other team in conference has this much depth and talent at DT, and I think Levelston has all-conference potential. Again, this position gets an A as best in conference.
NG - Miller fills a huge hole for us here that was missing last season. He is another guy who might not rack up tackles or sacks, but he is going to impact every play. Two years ago, the run defense looked completely different with the Stanford tackle; the Miami tackle is going to have an even bigger impact. While Miller is going to play at an all-conference level, I do have concerns about the depth here. Sandjo is just kind of a guy. Chatman will probably be more effective at NG than last season when he is playing fewer snaps, so that will help. And Kori Roberson will play here and has size. I'll grade this as a B+ heading into the season because of depth concerns, but if Roberson and Chatman are able to do the job rotating in, then this group could perform at an A/A- level.
Pass Rush DE (Bandit) - Last year we didn't see enough productivity. Paul was okay here, but he didn't provide a consistent threat; in fact, almost all of his sacks came in a single game (TCU). He continues to start, with Smith and Cam Robertson pushing hard behind him. Smith and Roberson each have a ton of potential, but them not pushing past Paul is a little bit of a concern. With Roberts starting on the other side, and the strength at NG inside, this position should be singled up with no RB support this season. Productivity in terms of pressures and sacks is going to be essential for this defense becoming elite versus just showing improvement to become an average defense. While Smith and Roberson flash at times, one of them is going to have to grab the job for this spot to be upgraded from the C I am giving it prior to the season.
Mike LB - last year, SMU really struggled at LB because they didn't have the size to make up for an underperforming DL, nor the speed to really do a great job in coverage. This led to getting blocked out of plays quite a bit, missed tackles, and soft spots over the middle of the field in coverage. Ahmad Walker has been brought in to improve this spot. IMHO, he plays at a better speed for his size than the guys before him, which will allow him to make a better impact in both the running and passing game, but he isn't like Richard Moore was pre-injury where he dominated games. I don't expect him to dominate, but I do expect an improvement up to C. Waiting behind him is Kilgore, who I absolutely love as a player, and who will get more and more playing time as the season rolls along.
Will LB - Again, massive struggles last season, partially because of the line. There are three players battling it out here - Wilson, Adimora, and Burns. Burns was expected to step up, but really hasn't Wilson and Adimora have looked great in fall camp. The guy I would keep my eye on is Wilson. He graded out extremely well last year on PFF for Temple (6th in conference), and flies around in practice. While most of the talk has been around Walker because of his Liberty connections, this is the position I think we will improve the most in the LB group. This is probably my most controversial grade, but I am going to rate this as a B, because with the added speed and improved DL, I think Wilson might rack up tackles, sacks, and plays in the secondary to be in the discussion for an all-conference spot.
RCB - Johnson played this spot for a few years, and everyone knows what he was - he was best playing tight coverage on shorter routes, but he didn't have the top end speed to stay with players deep. He was a solid corner last season, grading out middle of the pack. S, LCB, and LB were much bigger problems in the SMU pass defense. This year, however, SMU has upgraded significantly. Charles Woods is going to be a lock down corner in the league, and our depth is improved. I expect Woods to garner all conference honors; his ratings his first year at WV and the previous year at Illinois State are great, and he has looked great in practice. I am grading this position an A- heading into the season, a massive upgrade over the C from last year.
LCB - Rogers and Westfall really struggled last year, as two of the lowest rated corners in the league. They are replaced by Megginson, who would have graded out as a top 10 corner in the AAC last season. Megginson has looked really good in camp. I'm not sure he will be all-conference, but improving from a D to a B will have a significant impact.
NCB - Crossley returns and is backed up by the transfer Sanders. Crossley got better as the season went a long last year and ended up having a very solid year in coverage (his tackling wasn't great, like much of the team). Sanders gives us much better depth than we had at the position last season. There is some upside here for Crossley to push for an all-conference spot, but I'll rate this as a B going into the season.
FS - There is no sugar coating it - Massey never recovered last season from the ankle injury in fall camp, and really struggled, especially with tackling in the run game. It was a real disappointment after Massey had played so well in the spring and fall camp pre-injury, and was expected to compete for all conference honors. Ahmad Moses came in as a true frosh and really looked the part, flashing in every game he played in. This group is going to significantly improve this season. I'll rate it as a B, but I think there is a chance Massey gets an all-conference selection this season.
SS - Roberts was solid early in the season, but had limitations athletically and his performance/impact declined as the season went along. NWO as well all know struggled with a lot of things last season and didn't have a big impact on the field. McGill will be a significant improvement, and NWO looks much better than he did last season. While McGill has looked great in camp, I am going to only rate this as a B going into the season because McGill played mostly at nickel corner at Stanford, so moving completely to the SS role is going to be new for him. There is clearly all-conference potential here, though.
So, there is my look at the team heading into the season. As you can tell, this is the deepest team we have had in a long time - IMHO, Rooster, Maryland, Bailey, Bryant, Osborne, White, Roberts, Miller, Levelston, Woods, McGill, and Massey could all push for all-conference awards this year. Our K and P as well. Maybe even Stone if an outside receiver steps up, and Wilson at LB.
I am going to project us at 9-3 and winning the AAC conference championship game in our last season in the conference. I think we COULD run the table and become a force at the national level, but in order to beat TCU/OU and avoid a turnover/Stone injury loss in conference we need: Rooster or Wheaton to be elite, a WR to step up and be a dominant force, and a bandit player to become unstoppable off the edge. While I DO think that it is possible that all three of those things happen, I'm not sure I believe it yet.
Anyway, enjoy the season, and hopefully in a year I'm trying to explain how we will finish .500 in our first year in the ACC!
QB - Preston Stone of course will be the starter. What makes Preston different from TM is that while TM was a good quarterback with nice tools, he never had the "it" factor that Preston does. While Preston is certainly able to make they typical throws, he also brings the magic from time to time. His arm strength isn't elite, but it is very solid. His aggressive mentality is very Brett Favre. Mobility wise, I would kind of compare him to Tony Romo - he isn't going to break long runs necessarily, but he will be elusive in the pocket and he can run when he wants to. He goes through his progressions really quickly, something we haven't seen around here in a long time. That is a part of his game that might end up being elite. Comparing him to TM, I don't think you are going to see the consistency that we got from TM when he was really on his game. That said, he is going to be much better at just finding a way to make something happen when the offense is sluggish. Kind of like the Cincy game, when TM completed a decent percentage (15/25) but for only 105 yards and took a bunch of sacks. Preston came in and had an awful completion percentage (6/15) but just found a way to move the team down the field and almost led a comeback. I think Preston will throw for around 3500 yards like TM did, but with a few more interceptions... I would not be surprised to see 35 TD with 15 INT. I think 2024 will be an elite season from Preston after he gets his feet wet this year. Jennings is a very capable backup. I expect Preston to perform at a B+ level in conference this season, finishing as a top 4 QB, but that is mainly due to inexperience. He clearly has A potential, we will just to see if he gets there this season or next.
RB - We have clearly upgraded here significantly and are a legit 5 deep. LJ and Rooster are both very good college football running backs. Velton is going to surprise people and is a very good change of pace back in college football. Lavine is obviously a great physical short yardage runner. Rooster has the potential to get drafted because he is explosive but also can run with surprising power for his size. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain that strength and intensity at 185 lbs for the entire season. Of course, there is plenty of depth and if he does get banged up, Velton is very able to replace him. The X factor here is Wheaton. Wheaton has the size/speed/explosiveness combo to be an elite back. We just don't know if it is going to happen this year or next. This group should be the top RB group in conference this year. I'll give them an A- going into the season, but they have the potential to go A+ if Camar shows what he has or Rooster is NFL ready.
WR - The group here is very good - at least two deep at all 3 WR positions. All players who can be above average in the AAC. The only concern I have is that we have seen Rhett's offense perform extremely well when he has a go-to elite WR. Back when he was OC, Roberson blew everyone up the first part of the season, got hurt, and the offense wasn't quite the same from that point on. Last season, Rice was the elite receiver who made things roll. Nobody has really emerged as that elite guy from this group. Keyshawn, Kerley, Hudson all have that potential, but we haven't quite seen anyone emerge yet. While a good, solid "B" rated receiving corp is good enough in the AAC when your OL is protecting and Preston is so good at rolling through progressions, against TCU and OU you need "that guy" who you can heave it to and who will just go up and make a play. Rice, Roberson, Proche, and Sutton have all provided that option in recent years. They all had the size and/or athleticism to go along with physicality to go up and catch a contested ball or draw a PI if you deed it. Everyone wants Kerley to be that guy, but I have never seen that type of physical play out of him. Keyshawn has the potential to be that guy - not speed, but just to out muscle someone and go get the ball. If someone steps forward, then this can be an A group. But until it happens, they are a B, and I think it is what keeps us from winning the OU and TCU games.
TE - Matthews-Harris playing so well in fall camp is really important. He gives us that solid guy who can be a decent blocker and go out and catch the ball. And the you have RJ the playmaker who if he more consistent this year, pushes this position to an elite level. He is a future NFL guy. Riordan and Moore both look ready to contribute already, and even Kam Allen looks like a real TE. I think this group is an upgrade over last season, and I'll give it a B+ as a top 4 group in conference, with the chance to be an A if Maryland is elite consistently.
LT - Bryant. He looks better and more fluid than he did last year. I will grade him as a B+ because I expect him to be on one of the all conference teams this season, but he has A- potential. I'm not sure if he is quite an NFL guy, but if he stays healthy he could be top of the conference. PJ Williams is behind him and will be a star in the future.
LG - Parr or Sparks. Last year, Biss was underappreciated and had a very good year, probably a B or a B+ as one of the better guards in conference. Very good in pass blocking and also good strength in the running game even though he didn't really make it to the second level very often. If Sparks starts, I'll give this a C, he will be an average starter in conference. Parr is the guy who I think has next level potential. Good size and strength, with the mobility to get out on screens and block at the second level. Parr brings this up to a B with the potential to be on an all conference list at B+ or A-. This is a position to watch to see if it ends up being an upgrade or a downgrade over last season.
C - Hickman or Clark. Last year, Hickman graded out really well in games, but his lack of size is a problem in certain matchups. And there are plays where he just gets beat, like in the Cincy game in the two point conversion we failed when we had a chance to tie. I know the coaches love him, and I know he grades out really well, he just doesn't dominate. Clark would have been an upgrade here, but came in massively overweight and we won't know if he can play a lot of snaps until later in the season. HIckman showed enough improvement in Spring and Fall camp to indicate that he is ready to improve. If he starts, I believe he will be above average in conference (not quite all-conference) and I would give us a B- rating (last year, he would have been C or C+). If Clark somehow makes it back, he will absolutely be all conference and this gets bumped up to a B+/A-.
RG - Osborne was second team all conference last season, and he looks significantly better to me. I expect him to perform at an A/A- level and be the best guard in conference.
RT - White has been another extremely pleasant surprise. Last year, JT played some here and struggled because he was supposed to play guard/center. And then Condon who wasn't great. White is a massive upgrade in size and athleticism. I expect him to be the best tackle in conference this year, and I'll give him an A rating, because I think he is an NFL guy. IMHO, he is the best tackle we have had since Beachum.
Strong side DE - Roberts. This was a below average position last year. We were depending on Coxe, and when he got hurt before the season, we never had anyone big enough to play this position. Roberts changes all of that. He is big enough to hold the edge against the run, and agile/strong/fast enough to be effective rushing the passer. His impact is going to be very similar to Tank Lawrence with the Cowboys - When Tank is there, yes he makes plays, but he might not rack up a ton of numbers. Then, all of a sudden when he is out, Micah Parsons isn't as effective rushing the passer and the Cowboys give up a ton of yards on the ground. Even if Roberts doesn't make a ton of tackles and/or sacks, his presence is really going to change the effectiveness of the defense. Backing him up is Samuels (who is developing really well and is going to be a beast in pass rushing downs) and Abiara. I am going to project that Roberts plays at an all-conference level... I'll mark the position as an A- just because I worry a little about run defense when Roberts isn't playing.
3-tech DT - Levelston added weight and looks great. He will split time with Chatman and you are going to see Stephan Wright make plays and Kori Roberson make plays here as well. There is no way that any other team in conference has this much depth and talent at DT, and I think Levelston has all-conference potential. Again, this position gets an A as best in conference.
NG - Miller fills a huge hole for us here that was missing last season. He is another guy who might not rack up tackles or sacks, but he is going to impact every play. Two years ago, the run defense looked completely different with the Stanford tackle; the Miami tackle is going to have an even bigger impact. While Miller is going to play at an all-conference level, I do have concerns about the depth here. Sandjo is just kind of a guy. Chatman will probably be more effective at NG than last season when he is playing fewer snaps, so that will help. And Kori Roberson will play here and has size. I'll grade this as a B+ heading into the season because of depth concerns, but if Roberson and Chatman are able to do the job rotating in, then this group could perform at an A/A- level.
Pass Rush DE (Bandit) - Last year we didn't see enough productivity. Paul was okay here, but he didn't provide a consistent threat; in fact, almost all of his sacks came in a single game (TCU). He continues to start, with Smith and Cam Robertson pushing hard behind him. Smith and Roberson each have a ton of potential, but them not pushing past Paul is a little bit of a concern. With Roberts starting on the other side, and the strength at NG inside, this position should be singled up with no RB support this season. Productivity in terms of pressures and sacks is going to be essential for this defense becoming elite versus just showing improvement to become an average defense. While Smith and Roberson flash at times, one of them is going to have to grab the job for this spot to be upgraded from the C I am giving it prior to the season.
Mike LB - last year, SMU really struggled at LB because they didn't have the size to make up for an underperforming DL, nor the speed to really do a great job in coverage. This led to getting blocked out of plays quite a bit, missed tackles, and soft spots over the middle of the field in coverage. Ahmad Walker has been brought in to improve this spot. IMHO, he plays at a better speed for his size than the guys before him, which will allow him to make a better impact in both the running and passing game, but he isn't like Richard Moore was pre-injury where he dominated games. I don't expect him to dominate, but I do expect an improvement up to C. Waiting behind him is Kilgore, who I absolutely love as a player, and who will get more and more playing time as the season rolls along.
Will LB - Again, massive struggles last season, partially because of the line. There are three players battling it out here - Wilson, Adimora, and Burns. Burns was expected to step up, but really hasn't Wilson and Adimora have looked great in fall camp. The guy I would keep my eye on is Wilson. He graded out extremely well last year on PFF for Temple (6th in conference), and flies around in practice. While most of the talk has been around Walker because of his Liberty connections, this is the position I think we will improve the most in the LB group. This is probably my most controversial grade, but I am going to rate this as a B, because with the added speed and improved DL, I think Wilson might rack up tackles, sacks, and plays in the secondary to be in the discussion for an all-conference spot.
RCB - Johnson played this spot for a few years, and everyone knows what he was - he was best playing tight coverage on shorter routes, but he didn't have the top end speed to stay with players deep. He was a solid corner last season, grading out middle of the pack. S, LCB, and LB were much bigger problems in the SMU pass defense. This year, however, SMU has upgraded significantly. Charles Woods is going to be a lock down corner in the league, and our depth is improved. I expect Woods to garner all conference honors; his ratings his first year at WV and the previous year at Illinois State are great, and he has looked great in practice. I am grading this position an A- heading into the season, a massive upgrade over the C from last year.
LCB - Rogers and Westfall really struggled last year, as two of the lowest rated corners in the league. They are replaced by Megginson, who would have graded out as a top 10 corner in the AAC last season. Megginson has looked really good in camp. I'm not sure he will be all-conference, but improving from a D to a B will have a significant impact.
NCB - Crossley returns and is backed up by the transfer Sanders. Crossley got better as the season went a long last year and ended up having a very solid year in coverage (his tackling wasn't great, like much of the team). Sanders gives us much better depth than we had at the position last season. There is some upside here for Crossley to push for an all-conference spot, but I'll rate this as a B going into the season.
FS - There is no sugar coating it - Massey never recovered last season from the ankle injury in fall camp, and really struggled, especially with tackling in the run game. It was a real disappointment after Massey had played so well in the spring and fall camp pre-injury, and was expected to compete for all conference honors. Ahmad Moses came in as a true frosh and really looked the part, flashing in every game he played in. This group is going to significantly improve this season. I'll rate it as a B, but I think there is a chance Massey gets an all-conference selection this season.
SS - Roberts was solid early in the season, but had limitations athletically and his performance/impact declined as the season went along. NWO as well all know struggled with a lot of things last season and didn't have a big impact on the field. McGill will be a significant improvement, and NWO looks much better than he did last season. While McGill has looked great in camp, I am going to only rate this as a B going into the season because McGill played mostly at nickel corner at Stanford, so moving completely to the SS role is going to be new for him. There is clearly all-conference potential here, though.
So, there is my look at the team heading into the season. As you can tell, this is the deepest team we have had in a long time - IMHO, Rooster, Maryland, Bailey, Bryant, Osborne, White, Roberts, Miller, Levelston, Woods, McGill, and Massey could all push for all-conference awards this year. Our K and P as well. Maybe even Stone if an outside receiver steps up, and Wilson at LB.
I am going to project us at 9-3 and winning the AAC conference championship game in our last season in the conference. I think we COULD run the table and become a force at the national level, but in order to beat TCU/OU and avoid a turnover/Stone injury loss in conference we need: Rooster or Wheaton to be elite, a WR to step up and be a dominant force, and a bandit player to become unstoppable off the edge. While I DO think that it is possible that all three of those things happen, I'm not sure I believe it yet.
Anyway, enjoy the season, and hopefully in a year I'm trying to explain how we will finish .500 in our first year in the ACC!