My season preview, record and roster evaluation

[JasonB]

I took a look at all the recruiting ratings for our team and our opponents. This is all based on high school rankings, not re-rank data, because I wanted to do an apples-to-apples comparison. It is based on the top 66 players on each team's roster.

When you look at Team Talent, there are clear levels that pop out to you. Rather than go through our schedule in game order, I am going to go through them by tier that they are in.

Tier 1 - Sigma

Florida State stands alone in this category. They have top end talent, and depth. Best roster in the ACC, hands down. It is amazing how they fell apart so bad after the loss of QB1 last year, because they really do have a very talented and deep roster. There is a 180 point difference in calculation between them and Tier 2.

Tier 2 - Alpha

SMU and TCU are the two schools in this tier. TCU's roster is loaded with talent. It seems like they have QB1 figured out and if he stays healthy, they have the best roster in the Big 12. In fact, I think a lot of money can be made on TCU betting the over on wins in their season and winning the Big12 because there valuation doesn't align with their roster level. TCU has a slight edge over us with their roster this year. Less of a gap than last year, but I still think I would pick us to lose on roster talent.

Tier 3 - Alpha Lite

Louisville, Stanford, Pitt and Cal fit into this tier. They are all around 75 points behind us in total talent. The rosters are a little different from each other. Louisville and Cal both have the top end talent, but not as much depth. Louisville you can see that their QB1 and playmakers played above their recruiting ranking and really carried the team to a higher level last year. They aren't a bad team or anything like that, they just need their top end players to stay healthy and the new QB to be awesome to repeat last year. If they don't get the same level of performance at QB, they take a step back, behind Clemson, FSU, Miami, NC State, and SMU. If they have injuries to elite players, they don't have the roster depth to make up for it. Cal is the same way, to an even more extreme. They are in this tier, but they have to stay healthy. Injuries will really set them back, because they drop off like Louisville does at the back of the roster. Kind of the same way as Louisville - if they get an outstanding QB performance, they could surprise. If they don't, they are in this spot, and then if they have injuries they seriously underperform.

Pitt and Stanford are both interesting, and it surprised me to see them up there. They are the opposite of the other two. They have very deep rosters, but a limited number of elite recruits. That depth is going to allow them to grind and make every game a slog, make it close. But with that depth, if they discover a QB and a couple of elite players pop up, they would come out of nowhere and challenge.

I have us winning all 4 of these games, but they could each turn out to be better teams than projected if they get some great QB play.

Tier 4 - Mid, maybe?

Duke, Virginia, BC. These are all teams with about the same roster - They have limited elite talent, they have ok depth, and then it falls off at the end. They are around 200 points behind us in team talent. If they get really good QB play (I would expect BC this year and Duke did it last year), they can move up a tier in the ACC and be decent. Otherwise, their rosters are at the bottom of conference.

Tier 5 - Beta

The BYU roster is way behind from a P5 perspective. They are another 50 points behind tier 4. It isn't competitive. Back in the day, they could win a ton of G5 games because they had an older roster and the Polynesians on the OL. Covid killed the age difference, and the size on the OL and DL isn't enough anymore. They are good for beating a couple of bad P5 teams every year, and that is about it right now unless they have a great QB who can run up points. Our roster is way better than theirs.

Tier 6 - Giving lots of Beta

I'm not going to touch on HCU at all. With Nevada there has been a lot of talk about transfers and all that stuff. They do have a couple of transfers that have bolstered the roster a little, but they are 1800 points behind us overall. We are going to beat them badly.

Based on roster composition, I have us at 9-3 (6-2 in the ACC) on the season, losing to FSU and TCU at home and one of the Tier 3 teams in an upset. Not a bad first season at all. Probably not quite enough to get us in the ACC championship game, and not enough for a CFP invite, but a good bowl at the end of the year.

What could make this season better or worse?

On offense, QB is going to be interesting. RL wants to run the ball. He wants us to be a physical, punishing team. He loves the RPO. Stone, however, is not an RPO QB. Stone is at his best when he drops back on pure passing plays with a supporting running game. It is going to be interesting to see how this plays out. I could see a scenario where we open it up and allow Preston to be Preston and take advantage of a strong WR corps. I could also see it where Rhett is determined to go RPO and Preston struggles so Jennings takes over. We are in a unique situation because Preston is the flashy put up numbers guy who can win those games, while Jennings is more of your grind it out QB, who ground out the win against Tulane and then should have ground out a win against BC if his long TD pass isn't dropped.

Against Nevada, HCU, and BYU, if Preston struggles with RPO and we open things up, we are good enough at the skill positions to win those game. Against TCU and FSU, however, I am not sure if that is true. You have to be realistic, because if your WR and TE can't win consistently in those games, Preston throws under 50% and we turn it over and you get blown out. Grinding keeps those types of games close, like the OU game last year. But is Stone the better QB in that type of game or Jennings? From what I have seen, Hudson, Smith, and Brinson all took big steps and we are very deep at TE. But those top teams have elite players also.

Another factor here is the Camar injury. With LJ and Rooster as your main backs and then Smith and McFall in the 3rd down back, Braden West roll, do we have enough horses for a grind-it-out gameplan for a full season?

Finally, on the OL, our starting group when everyone is healthy will be PJ - Parr - Osborne - Clark - Chamblee. That is a dominant, physical offensive line that will be able to run the ball on everyone. Even if Parr gets hurt, I can plug in Byrd and still run the ball really well. Beyond that, however, Sparks, Anderson, and Woods are players who can hold their own, but aren't going to drive players off the line. So, when we are healthy, grind it out, running, RPO is going to work. But if people get injured, I'm not sure how well that style holds up.

So, offensively, I think we are going to go out and let Stone pass when he is in the game, and if things don't work, Jennings go in and drives an RPO-heavy attack with more focus on the running game. I suspect Jennings will get a couple of series in each of the first three games, and we will see a difference in how the team plays when the two QBs are in there. But in terms of "overperforming" this year, it is all about QB1 - Stone or Jennings are going to have to be great in order for us to win the TCU and/or FSU games. Underperforming expectations would be lots of injuries on the OL.

Defensively, our DL is going to be awesome. LBs are deep and awesome. S is deep and awesome. The question is corner. Smoke is a good corner. Not sure if he is going to be great, but he is good. Deuce has athleticism and speed. His feet were really slow to me at the start of camp, but they look better on video now. Rogers looks much better IMHO than he has in the past, but still doesn't have the top end speed for the deep ball. Speedy Nettles is going to be an awesome corner for us, and I think he is going to play a big part at some point this year. I feel much better at corner now than I did coming into camp. If our corners turn out to be awesome, this could be the best defense in the ACC. I think they will be adequate, which will still make us a top 5 defense in the ACC. IMHO the only reason we would underperform defensively is if the corners are so bad that the DL doesn't have time to impact the game. Injuries could get us there.

So, I have us at 9-3. Great QB play gets us to 11-1. Injuries on the OL and CB put us at 7-5.

[highlander]

great stuff!

[ponyswim]

Thanks Jason. This is great. Love the insight about difference between the quarterbacks.
Makes me wonder if Luster could have an impact sooner than we think.

[PNW_Stang]

Thank you so much for the report. Only place I get my SMU news, so it was appreciated.

[MV pony]

Best source for SMU news. Thanks, Jason.

[AusTxPony]

Thanx Jason. Good stuff to "pony up" my optimism. I certainly hope we get the football gods to give us some lucky breaks for TCU, though.

[Graceland Tar Heel]

I took a look at all the recruiting ratings for our team and our opponents. This is all based on high school rankings, not re-rank data, because I wanted to do an apples-to-apples comparison. It is based on the top 66 players on each team's roster.

When you look at Team Talent, there are clear levels that pop out to you. Rather than go through our schedule in game order, I am going to go through them by tier that they are in.

Tier 1 - Sigma

Florida State stands alone in this category. They have top end talent, and depth. Best roster in the ACC, hands down. It is amazing how they fell apart so bad after the loss of QB1 last year, because they really do have a very talented and deep roster. There is a 180 point difference in calculation between them and Tier 2.

Tier 2 - Alpha

SMU and TCU are the two schools in this tier. TCU's roster is loaded with talent. It seems like they have QB1 figured out and if he stays healthy, they have the best roster in the Big 12. In fact, I think a lot of money can be made on TCU betting the over on wins in their season and winning the Big12 because there valuation doesn't align with their roster level. TCU has a slight edge over us with their roster this year. Less of a gap than last year, but I still think I would pick us to lose on roster talent.

Tier 3 - Alpha Lite

Louisville, Stanford, Pitt and Cal fit into this tier. They are all around 75 points behind us in total talent. The rosters are a little different from each other. Louisville and Cal both have the top end talent, but not as much depth. Louisville you can see that their QB1 and playmakers played above their recruiting ranking and really carried the team to a higher level last year. They aren't a bad team or anything like that, they just need their top end players to stay healthy and the new QB to be awesome to repeat last year. If they don't get the same level of performance at QB, they take a step back, behind Clemson, FSU, Miami, NC State, and SMU. If they have injuries to elite players, they don't have the roster depth to make up for it. Cal is the same way, to an even more extreme. They are in this tier, but they have to stay healthy. Injuries will really set them back, because they drop off like Louisville does at the back of the roster. Kind of the same way as Louisville - if they get an outstanding QB performance, they could surprise. If they don't, they are in this spot, and then if they have injuries they seriously underperform.

Pitt and Stanford are both interesting, and it surprised me to see them up there. They are the opposite of the other two. They have very deep rosters, but a limited number of elite recruits. That depth is going to allow them to grind and make every game a slog, make it close. But with that depth, if they discover a QB and a couple of elite players pop up, they would come out of nowhere and challenge.

I have us winning all 4 of these games, but they could each turn out to be better teams than projected if they get some great QB play.

Tier 4 - Mid, maybe?

Duke, Virginia, BC. These are all teams with about the same roster - They have limited elite talent, they have ok depth, and then it falls off at the end. They are around 200 points behind us in team talent. If they get really good QB play (I would expect BC this year and Duke did it last year), they can move up a tier in the ACC and be decent. Otherwise, their rosters are at the bottom of conference.

Tier 5 - Beta

The BYU roster is way behind from a P5 perspective. They are another 50 points behind tier 4. It isn't competitive. Back in the day, they could win a ton of G5 games because they had an older roster and the Polynesians on the OL. Covid killed the age difference, and the size on the OL and DL isn't enough anymore. They are good for beating a couple of bad P5 teams every year, and that is about it right now unless they have a great QB who can run up points. Our roster is way better than theirs.

Tier 6 - Giving lots of Beta

I'm not going to touch on HCU at all. With Nevada there has been a lot of talk about transfers and all that stuff. They do have a couple of transfers that have bolstered the roster a little, but they are 1800 points behind us overall. We are going to beat them badly.

Based on roster composition, I have us at 9-3 (6-2 in the ACC) on the season, losing to FSU and TCU at home and one of the Tier 3 teams in an upset. Not a bad first season at all. Probably not quite enough to get us in the ACC championship game, and not enough for a CFP invite, but a good bowl at the end of the year.

What could make this season better or worse?

On offense, QB is going to be interesting. RL wants to run the ball. He wants us to be a physical, punishing team. He loves the RPO. Stone, however, is not an RPO QB. Stone is at his best when he drops back on pure passing plays with a supporting running game. It is going to be interesting to see how this plays out. I could see a scenario where we open it up and allow Preston to be Preston and take advantage of a strong WR corps. I could also see it where Rhett is determined to go RPO and Preston struggles so Jennings takes over. We are in a unique situation because Preston is the flashy put up numbers guy who can win those games, while Jennings is more of your grind it out QB, who ground out the win against Tulane and then should have ground out a win against BC if his long TD pass isn't dropped.

Against Nevada, HCU, and BYU, if Preston struggles with RPO and we open things up, we are good enough at the skill positions to win those game. Against TCU and FSU, however, I am not sure if that is true. You have to be realistic, because if your WR and TE can't win consistently in those games, Preston throws under 50% and we turn it over and you get blown out. Grinding keeps those types of games close, like the OU game last year. But is Stone the better QB in that type of game or Jennings? From what I have seen, Hudson, Smith, and Brinson all took big steps and we are very deep at TE. But those top teams have elite players also.

Another factor here is the Camar injury. With LJ and Rooster as your main backs and then Smith and McFall in the 3rd down back, Braden West roll, do we have enough horses for a grind-it-out gameplan for a full season?

Finally, on the OL, our starting group when everyone is healthy will be PJ - Parr - Osborne - Clark - Chamblee. That is a dominant, physical offensive line that will be able to run the ball on everyone. Even if Parr gets hurt, I can plug in Byrd and still run the ball really well. Beyond that, however, Sparks, Anderson, and Woods are players who can hold their own, but aren't going to drive players off the line. So, when we are healthy, grind it out, running, RPO is going to work. But if people get injured, I'm not sure how well that style holds up.

So, offensively, I think we are going to go out and let Stone pass when he is in the game, and if things don't work, Jennings go in and drives an RPO-heavy attack with more focus on the running game. I suspect Jennings will get a couple of series in each of the first three games, and we will see a difference in how the team plays when the two QBs are in there. But in terms of "overperforming" this year, it is all about QB1 - Stone or Jennings are going to have to be great in order for us to win the TCU and/or FSU games. Underperforming expectations would be lots of injuries on the OL.

Defensively, our DL is going to be awesome. LBs are deep and awesome. S is deep and awesome. The question is corner. Smoke is a good corner. Not sure if he is going to be great, but he is good. Deuce has athleticism and speed. His feet were really slow to me at the start of camp, but they look better on video now. Rogers looks much better IMHO than he has in the past, but still doesn't have the top end speed for the deep ball. Speedy Nettles is going to be an awesome corner for us, and I think he is going to play a big part at some point this year. I feel much better at corner now than I did coming into camp. If our corners turn out to be awesome, this could be the best defense in the ACC. I think they will be adequate, which will still make us a top 5 defense in the ACC. IMHO the only reason we would underperform defensively is if the corners are so bad that the DL doesn't have time to impact the game. Injuries could get us there.

So, I have us at 9-3. Great QB play gets us to 11-1. Injuries on the OL and CB put us at 7-5.

FSU also lost QB2 (Rodemaker) to injury. The guy saying at th close of season was a true freshman. The FSU weakness as a current program was shown in the Bowl. They did not get what they wanted, and then they just seemed uninterested in playing. So they got embarrassed. The FSU sense of entitlement gets them into more L columns than they should have.

[JasonB]

As a follow-up, 247 finally updated their college team talent list for the season.

SMU comes in 5th in the ACC... but only FSU is ahead of us of teams we play (Clemson, UNC, Miami are the others). Our 788 points would put us at the top of the Big 12, just ahead of TCU. That metric would have us at 11-1 on the season....