Thoughts on the HCU game
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2024 10:13 amIt was nice to see that game end up as expected... my prediction was 69-3, and we just about end up there except for the 10 minute clock burning drive by Luster in the 4th quarter. I'll go position by position on where we are at.
QB - It looks like we have made the adjustment I mentioned before the game - we have two different offenses. When Preston is in, open it up to a passing offense and then when Jennings is in (or Luster) it is RPO. Both quarterbacks were great, and they each only had one drive that resulted in a punt. Both punts illustrated the relative weakness of the QBs - Preston's punt was the slow start, and KJ's punt is when he gets behind the chains he isn't as polished in the passing game. But you can see where this strategy is going to evolve. In this game, HCU started rushing 3 and dropping everyone back. If you go back in time to the Tanner offense, this caused us all kinds of problems because of the downfield nature of the passing offense and the weaker OL. You saw it against TCU the last two years when they played the 3-3 stack - dare us to run on throw short passes and then tackle quick. With the rearranged OL, we can take a different approach. When Preston is in, the OL is good enough to power run against a 3 man line and get chunk plays. When KJ is in, his mobility and the RPO eat that defense alive. We have new, added versatility in the offense that hopefully will pay off against the better teams that we will play this season. I expect that this rotation of 2 series each to start the game will continue for the rest of non-conference (or at least up to the bye or first loss), but eventually it will become more strategic based on the matchup. For example, I could see Preston starting the games we are favored to win, whereas KJ starts the games like FSU where we are going to be the underdog and should be a very physical game. Just a note that Luster at the end did exactly what RL wanted him to - play it safe and eat the clock. Great job.
RB - Brashard smith is great and McFall really flashed. The LJ fumble is not really a concern as long as he is still healthy - that was a great hit. Again, this is going to evolve. Smith limit to 15 touches to keep him fresh. Rooster, McFall and Daniels can spell him in that role - with Camar out, it may not be possible to redshirt McFall. LJ becomes the physical RB. We might see a pairing here as well that when Preston is in the game, you see more LJ because the defense will back up and you want a physical bruiser against less DL, and then when KJ is in the game you have Smith to add a playmaker to the offense.
WR - This was really the only disappointment. I think it is clear at this point we have a bunch of athletes, but we don't really have a number 1 guy who is ready to step up and be elite. This is going to really hurt us against the better teams on the schedule - TCU, FSU, Louisville. It constricts the ceiling of the offense, and is a reason why the KJ RPO is going to be really important in those games.
TE - Obviously not a focus in the game, but great to see Adam Moore get in there and make some things happen. We are elite at this position, not worried.
OL - The reshuffling definitely worked. I said before the game that this would be a test for Clark at Center and Byrd at guard to see what things would look like moving forward, and they both passed the test with flying colors, especially Byrd who was outstanding. Osborne showed that he is ready for the outside. PJ-Byrd-Clark-Parr-Osborne are you starters, with Chamblee rotating in at tackle and Sparks and Anderson rotating in at guard. The opponent has to be kept in mind, of course, but it was great seeing them dominate. Chamblee started off the game after he came in really poorly, but settled down after a couple of series and did much better in the second half. Those are your 8 OL.
DT - Tank was awesome, and it is always great to see the big man TD. H-H still worries me a little bit in the running game. Great rating on PFF, and he is awesome rushing the passer, but he still loses lane integrity in the running game at times when he is overaggressive. Roberson was great for the second straight game, and I think Jefferson looks good as well. Lockhart played more and did a good job. I kind of wonder as the season goes along if we might start Jefferson with Tank and then have H-H be our passing down guy at DT. But we will see how he does in the BYU game where he is going to be challenged to be more physical in the running game. Such a luxury to have 5 good players at this position.
DE - Roberts is going to get a lot of attention, so it is awesome to see Harvey step up and play so well. Smith was very good and so was Cam. I was really hoping to see Obor and Walton in the 4th for longer, but we ate all the clock. Still incredible that we can bring a UT and OSU guy off the bench with our third string. But this group looks ready.
LB - Walker and Wilson looked much better than against Nevada. Walker was great. Wilson still struggled a bit, and Kilgore had another good game - kind of wonder if it is a matter of time... Miyazano was much better than game 1. Surprised we didn't see Booker and only got a little of Medlock, but I guess we ran down the clock too much in the 4th.
S - It is amazing when you can say McGill was your worst player in this group, that is just the level of talent we have. Moses you just can't say enough about, he is such a good player. Disappointed we didn't see more JMJ and Chambers in the mix, but again, we lost a lot of the 4th quarter.
CB - We may be evolving into Deuce and AJ. Deuce to me is our best corner, which is a real surprise after watching him the first week of practice. He has come a long way. AJ also started camp off slowly IMHO, but he looks like the second best corner. Smoke has the speed but there are instinctual things that worry me. Rogers and Crossley are both great on shorter routes but they can get beat badly over the top. Rogers and Crossley are fine as long as you give them plenty of help. The question is if Deuce is good enough to be a lockdown on the other side and not need protection. I don't think that is the case, so I think you end up with Deuce on one side and AJ on the other. Disappointed we didn't get to see more of Speedy, but again, we ate clock in the 4th quarter. We have 6 guys here that can play. I just don't think we have THE guy anywhere, and that is going to cost our pass defense against better teams. BYU is a big test this week, and they might expose us a bit.
Overall, obviously a much better performance. However, WR and CB are the positions I think that will end up holding this team back from really being competitive at the top of the ACC, and I think I kind of revise my W/L prediction down a little bit. BYU is going to be the first major test of the season, and I'm looking forward to see how it goes...
QB - It looks like we have made the adjustment I mentioned before the game - we have two different offenses. When Preston is in, open it up to a passing offense and then when Jennings is in (or Luster) it is RPO. Both quarterbacks were great, and they each only had one drive that resulted in a punt. Both punts illustrated the relative weakness of the QBs - Preston's punt was the slow start, and KJ's punt is when he gets behind the chains he isn't as polished in the passing game. But you can see where this strategy is going to evolve. In this game, HCU started rushing 3 and dropping everyone back. If you go back in time to the Tanner offense, this caused us all kinds of problems because of the downfield nature of the passing offense and the weaker OL. You saw it against TCU the last two years when they played the 3-3 stack - dare us to run on throw short passes and then tackle quick. With the rearranged OL, we can take a different approach. When Preston is in, the OL is good enough to power run against a 3 man line and get chunk plays. When KJ is in, his mobility and the RPO eat that defense alive. We have new, added versatility in the offense that hopefully will pay off against the better teams that we will play this season. I expect that this rotation of 2 series each to start the game will continue for the rest of non-conference (or at least up to the bye or first loss), but eventually it will become more strategic based on the matchup. For example, I could see Preston starting the games we are favored to win, whereas KJ starts the games like FSU where we are going to be the underdog and should be a very physical game. Just a note that Luster at the end did exactly what RL wanted him to - play it safe and eat the clock. Great job.
RB - Brashard smith is great and McFall really flashed. The LJ fumble is not really a concern as long as he is still healthy - that was a great hit. Again, this is going to evolve. Smith limit to 15 touches to keep him fresh. Rooster, McFall and Daniels can spell him in that role - with Camar out, it may not be possible to redshirt McFall. LJ becomes the physical RB. We might see a pairing here as well that when Preston is in the game, you see more LJ because the defense will back up and you want a physical bruiser against less DL, and then when KJ is in the game you have Smith to add a playmaker to the offense.
WR - This was really the only disappointment. I think it is clear at this point we have a bunch of athletes, but we don't really have a number 1 guy who is ready to step up and be elite. This is going to really hurt us against the better teams on the schedule - TCU, FSU, Louisville. It constricts the ceiling of the offense, and is a reason why the KJ RPO is going to be really important in those games.
TE - Obviously not a focus in the game, but great to see Adam Moore get in there and make some things happen. We are elite at this position, not worried.
OL - The reshuffling definitely worked. I said before the game that this would be a test for Clark at Center and Byrd at guard to see what things would look like moving forward, and they both passed the test with flying colors, especially Byrd who was outstanding. Osborne showed that he is ready for the outside. PJ-Byrd-Clark-Parr-Osborne are you starters, with Chamblee rotating in at tackle and Sparks and Anderson rotating in at guard. The opponent has to be kept in mind, of course, but it was great seeing them dominate. Chamblee started off the game after he came in really poorly, but settled down after a couple of series and did much better in the second half. Those are your 8 OL.
DT - Tank was awesome, and it is always great to see the big man TD. H-H still worries me a little bit in the running game. Great rating on PFF, and he is awesome rushing the passer, but he still loses lane integrity in the running game at times when he is overaggressive. Roberson was great for the second straight game, and I think Jefferson looks good as well. Lockhart played more and did a good job. I kind of wonder as the season goes along if we might start Jefferson with Tank and then have H-H be our passing down guy at DT. But we will see how he does in the BYU game where he is going to be challenged to be more physical in the running game. Such a luxury to have 5 good players at this position.
DE - Roberts is going to get a lot of attention, so it is awesome to see Harvey step up and play so well. Smith was very good and so was Cam. I was really hoping to see Obor and Walton in the 4th for longer, but we ate all the clock. Still incredible that we can bring a UT and OSU guy off the bench with our third string. But this group looks ready.
LB - Walker and Wilson looked much better than against Nevada. Walker was great. Wilson still struggled a bit, and Kilgore had another good game - kind of wonder if it is a matter of time... Miyazano was much better than game 1. Surprised we didn't see Booker and only got a little of Medlock, but I guess we ran down the clock too much in the 4th.
S - It is amazing when you can say McGill was your worst player in this group, that is just the level of talent we have. Moses you just can't say enough about, he is such a good player. Disappointed we didn't see more JMJ and Chambers in the mix, but again, we lost a lot of the 4th quarter.
CB - We may be evolving into Deuce and AJ. Deuce to me is our best corner, which is a real surprise after watching him the first week of practice. He has come a long way. AJ also started camp off slowly IMHO, but he looks like the second best corner. Smoke has the speed but there are instinctual things that worry me. Rogers and Crossley are both great on shorter routes but they can get beat badly over the top. Rogers and Crossley are fine as long as you give them plenty of help. The question is if Deuce is good enough to be a lockdown on the other side and not need protection. I don't think that is the case, so I think you end up with Deuce on one side and AJ on the other. Disappointed we didn't get to see more of Speedy, but again, we ate clock in the 4th quarter. We have 6 guys here that can play. I just don't think we have THE guy anywhere, and that is going to cost our pass defense against better teams. BYU is a big test this week, and they might expose us a bit.
Overall, obviously a much better performance. However, WR and CB are the positions I think that will end up holding this team back from really being competitive at the top of the ACC, and I think I kind of revise my W/L prediction down a little bit. BYU is going to be the first major test of the season, and I'm looking forward to see how it goes...