W2W4 - TCU

[JasonB]

This is going to be a fascinating game, because the nature of the SMU offense is going to change completely, and none of us know what to expect as an outcome. I'm sure we all have a feeling that this game will be one extreme or another - either SMU plays well and wins, or we get blown out.

Let's start with The Decision. Last year, we struggled on offense and after the ECU game, the staff flipped to a pass-first approach, opened it up, and killed everyone remaining on the schedule. As a coach, you always have your style and your preferences that you want to be able to implement. Rhett wants to be able to physically dominate the other team offensively - run first, RPO, and then stretch the field. In the running game, he wants to be able to run more Gap scheme in order to implement power, take full advantage of individual matchup wins, and generate explosive plays. In camp, you try and implement your preferences, but it can be difficult to judge why you struggle - is the defensive line really good, is it a technique issue, or do the players just not have the ability. In the passing game, RPO versus opening things up is a huge decision to make.

At QB, Preston is clearly a better throwing QB than Jennings. There is no doubt. All of the metrics show it, his completion percentage is better, depth of target is better, YPA is better, and Big Time Throw rate is away higher. However, that doesn't mean that he runs the offense better. We consistently move the ball with Jennings more than we do with Stone. And here we get to the efficiency of handling pressure. On 52 dropbacks, Stone has been pressured 15 times and taken 3 sacks. And yes, there have been terrible blocking issues, but he is taking over 3 seconds to throw the ball, which is way too high for someone with his experience. Hoover, in comparison, releases the ball a full second before Preston does. It is a symptom of the problem - waiting for the big play instead of taking what is there. Jennings, on the other hand, has 57 drop backs, has been pressured 19 times, but hasn't been sacked once. And when he is blitzed, he gets the ball out - 12/19 for 180 and a TD with no sacks. Preston when blitzed is 12/18, 111 yards, and 2 sacks. Significantly fewer yards plus negative plays. The book is out on Preston against teams that have a good enough defense to blitz. They know that they can make him hold the ball long enough to have the pressure get to him, because he won't take the hot read. When the two QBs have about the same number of passing yards, but Jennings is creating fewer negative plays and is able to present a larger threat in the running game, you start to see why RL made the call.

And with the change to Jennings comes a change to more of an RPO style.

SMU RUNNING VERSUS TCU DEFENSE

Now let's get to the running game. The first few games of every year, we try and run more Gap scheme to see if the OL can pick it up. It is complicated because you have to win individually, but you also have to get the timing of a pulling guard correct, the play has to be run quickly enough so that you can leave a backside defender unblocked, and the RB has to hit the hole hard. The reason you want to run it is because that pulling blocker gives you an extra guy at the point of attack, so one of your OL is able to get to the next level and there is a lot more explosive play potential. Zone requires less athleticism, but it doesn't have the upside and it also requires the RB to have vision in order to read the hole. Every year, the ratio of zone to gap is closer in the beginning as we work on things, and then we run substantially more zone once we get into conference.

With the BYU game, it was the first game in a long time that we actually attempted to run more Gap than Zone. We didn't have a single game last season with that imbalance. We also tried to do a lot of complicated blocking schemes in pass protection. It obviously didn't go well. When you look at our individual players on PFF... Clark is a 72. on zone plays, but only 62 on Gap. Parr is 63 to 55, Byrd 80 to 54, Osborne 65 to 43, Anderson 74 to 63, Chamblee 62 to 47 (which you would expect for someone with a knee issue). The only outliers are PJ (74 for both) and SParks (56 to 73, which speaks to his mobility). On top of all of those ratings, also know that several of our holding penalties are because someone didn't get to their spot quickly enough in the gap scheme.

So, now it is decision time. You have one non-conference game left. Does the coaching staff still feel as though Gap is an option, so you stick with it and try to get things right before the big conference game against FSU? Or do you give up, go back to zone, and try to perfect that running style before we get to the games that really matter?

My prediction is that the coaches will move to a more Zone heavy scheme in this game. Gap will show on power runs, but the ratio will be heavy zone. It will help us both in the running game as well as in pass protection, to clean it all up. As for the starting lineup on the line, the ideal is PJ - Parr - Clark -Osborne - Chamblee. But we still don't know if Chamblee is ready to play, and the coaches might really want him to get right for conference. If he cant go, I would not be surprised at all if they leave Parr on the left and have Sparks play RG with Osborne moving to tackle. Sparks has been decent, he can actually pull, and Parr looks way more comfortable on the left than he did on the right.

You are also going to see a lot of zone read with Jennings and the RBs. But one thing not to overlook is the Knighton injury. I know he has a lot of critics, but we are now in a run-first offense, and we need a full stable of backs. As I have mentioned before, you really want to keep B Smith down to around 15 touches per game in order to keep him fresh and keep the zip in his step. Rooster out means you are either leaning on LJ (who is also coming off injury), giving B Smith too many carries, or you are playing McFall, who has a ton of talent, but is going to be susceptible to negative plays against TCU.

When you look at the UCF game, UCF really tore TCU up on the ground in the second half. The first half was tough sledding, but TCU eventually ran out of gas. UCF has the mobile QB as well, so now we are presenting a very similar look. TCU has changed from the 3-3-stack they ran the past two seasons, and under the new DC are running a 4-2-5 base, while occasionally providing a 3-4 look. Mitchell and Fox started at DT with Markis Deal and Ajijolaiya off the bench. Menseh and McDonald start at DE with Devin Dela and Jackson off the bench.

Typically, when you see teams switch from a 3 man to a 4 man front, you end up with a bunch of tweeners. Guys that are good DE in a 3 man front, but are not explosive enough to play edge and not quite big enough to play tackle. That isn't really the case with TCU. But if you compare their DT group to what we have, it is night and day in terms of talent from a recruiting standpoint. While we go a legit 3 deep with our DT group, they have 4 guys, and couple of them were really low recruits. This is the area where you see Sonny's impact on the TCU roster - they are loaded with talent overall, but the DT recruiting has really dropped off compared to what Patterson ran out there. And it shows in their performance. In 2022, their rushing efficiency defense was 24 in the country. Last year it dropped to 53. And so far this season they are 79th.

If Chamblee is able to play, SMU could have a big game running the ball. Clark is good enough to handle whichever DT that he matches up against, the tackles can seal the edge, and our guards will be able to get on a LB. The running backs just need to read which side of Clark the other DT is on and run the opposite direction. Which again, points to a more successful zone blocking scheme. This could be a big matchup advantage for SMU, and would repeat the success of the 2021 game.

SMU PASSING VERSUS TCU DEFENSE

Now, things start to get tricky. Part of the reason UCF had success against TCU is that Jefferson hit a couple of passes against them and forced the safeties off the line so that they couldn't help in the running game. Jennings is going to have to make some plays in the passing game in order to force TCU off the line. Clearly, you can see how bringing Stone off the bench if TCU is jamming the front could really pay off for SMU at some point int he game. So I would look for that to be integrated into the game plan. But hopefully Jennings is able to do something. TCU has some players off the edge and at LB that can create pressure, which is going to be an issue for SMU, just as it has been the entire season. Big questions here on whether or not SMU can fix their pass blocking scheme and eliminate the free runners.

If we can block, the TCU secondary is athletic, but not anything to be too afraid of. The question is going to be if SMU can hit anything at all down the field. RL mentioned the need to threaten all zones, and that is imperative in this game. So far this season, Jennings is 0/5 on passes over 20 yards, and only 7/17 with an INT between 10 and 20. Those numbers are terrible.

If I were the TCU DC, my game plan would be to keep my safeties in, in order to take away the underneath stuff while also helping in the running game, and let my corners solo on the outside. Dare Jennings to beat you over the top. Not necessarily run blitz, because I want my LBs available in the passing game. But the DEs will be able to generate pressure, so take away the easy options and make Jennings prove it on the deep ball. I expect a lot of 8 and 9 players in the box from TCU at the start of the game to see what happens. Jennings is either going to hit a deep pass or two, or Stone is going to have to come in to loosen things up.

TCU RUNNING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE

Again, this is another area where we see Sonny's influence taking hold. Two years ago, TCU was a fantastic running team and very efficent. Last year they dropped to 70 in running efficiency and now they are 118. The running attack has really struggled. They only have 280 yards for the season and 3.3 per carry. The OL is more built for pass blocking and struggles with run blocking, which is something we have seen in the past with Sonny's teams. With our deep DL, we have the ability to completely shut down their running game and make TCU one dimensional.

TCU PASSING AGAINST SMU DEFENCE

And now we get to the matchup that really favors TCU. Hoover has been absolutely fantastic this season. Great stats, 8 tds no picks, very high completion percentage. Reads the blitz well, and he gets the ball out really fast. They have some issues in pass blocking at one tackle and one guard spot, but he is just so effective at getting the ball out quick that it doesn't cause a lot of problems.

They don't throw it deep a lot, which is a bit of a surprise for a Dykes team. Only 4/7 but for 160 and two long TDs. They are fantastic though on the mid-range throws. That 10-20 yard pass. Everything they do is either right around the line of scrimmage or in that mid-range, which makes the passing game really difficult to defend - if your LBs move up to help with the short game, they will pick you apart right behind them. The mid-range passing game has been really critical for them in converting third and longs after the running game struggles.

And they are trying to match up against the biggest unknown for SMU's defense. Smoke is fast but isn't a great corner yet. Crossley is physical and long, but doesn't have the top end speed. Rogers has covered well but not gotten a lot of playing time and has the same issues with deep balls. AJ does okay. Deuce has probably played the best... it will be interesting to see if he starts pretty soon. Overall, our pass defense hasn't been bad, but it certainly isn't up to the level of last season.

I expect Dykes to really play around with things in order to force SMU to defend all three levels. They will have a short game, mid-range game, and long game. They will play short until our LBs move up and leave the gap, then hit mid-range, and then if we move our safeties up to the mid-range they will pop our corners over the top. Specifically I think they will line up a WR and slot on their left, run the WR on a go and the slot on a post, leak the RB or TE out to the flat on that side. That forces the LB to stay in the first zone to contain, and then forces the safety on that side to choose which player to help on. Crossley is going to need some help, so that means a lot of pressure on Sanders and McGill to cover well from the slot.

What I really hate about this matchup is the quick release time from Hoover. There are some games where our DEs can protect our corners a bit. The TCU offense makes such quick decisions it is going to be a challenge. That pressure probably needs to come up the middle in order to impact a quick passing game, so the most important players, in addition to Sanders and McGill, are probably JHH and Roberson at DT.

Overall, I think this might be the worst matchup of the year for us defensively.

PREDICTION

This game is going to go one of two ways. OL is resolved, one of our QBs is able to beat them over the top, we run the ball, control possession, and score touchdowns and we win in a close game. Or, the OL isn't fixed, TCU is able to keep 8 or 9 in the box to help the running game, and TCU's offense gets a bunch of possessions to beat our corners.

I can honestly see either happening. But I don't think I can trust the OL until I actually see it happen. I can't trust Jennings to hit a deep ball until I actually see it happen. I can't trust the Jennings offense to convert in the redzone until I see it happen. And I can't fully trust our corners in a game like that until they prove themselves.

TCU 34 SMU 13. Prove me wrong, Mustangs...

[highlander]

Well at least you're honest.

[JasonB]

Well at least you're honest.

I really wanted to pick the "good case" scenario, which is 24-17 SMU, but I just have to see it first. Rhett clearly believes in Jennings to start hitting those deep passes.

[BUS]

I sure hope you are wrong. But your eye is usually correct.

Get the o line playing better and we win!

[PNW_Stang]

You mention a few times how we could see Preston. Seems Lashlee picked his guy and is rolling with that from everything I heard. I’d be surprised if Preston plays in this game. But maybe he’s still going to play 2

[indianmustang]

looks like it will be a blowout for TCU

[Hop Sing]

The pressure is on. Not for his job, but to prove that he can coach and win the big games. We beat the weaklings last year and whiffed against OU, TCU and BC. Is he ready for weight class move up or not. So far this year it doesn’t look like he is.

[Arkpony]

My prediction was 35-13 TCU. Jennings continues to have trouble in the red zone.

[rootertooter]

LOL - 2 point line and peeps calling for a TCU blowout. All the other sports at SMU proving they can hang with arguably tougher ACC competition and peeps yelling we have no chance to win ACC games in football. PTSD is real for us!

[JasonB]

You mention a few times how we could see Preston. Seems Lashlee picked his guy and is rolling with that from everything I heard. I’d be surprised if Preston plays in this game. But maybe he’s still going to play 2

If I were TCU, I would be compressing the field and playing 8 to 9 in the box. If Jennings isn't able to hit longer passes to back them off the line, you almost have to play Stone.

Both of these next two games, TCU and FSU, they are struggling to stop the run with their base defense. Jennings obviously adds more capability to take advantage of that weakness, but if he can't stretch the field, that advantage disappears.

You could actually have a lot of fun with all of this. Send Preston in the game, line him up at WR, when TCU puts 9 in the box, you have him go in motion and replace Jennings and throw it deep. If they stay back, you have your zone read up the middle. The challenge, of course is that at that point TCU just run blitzes Preston and he hasn't been taking the hot read.

I know everyone wants to write off Stone, but don't discount the chance that this change pushes him to actually start making the reads Lashlee wants him to instead of being stubborn and playing his way. Larry Brown benching Nic Moore for a game kind of thing.

We will find out this afternoon.
'

[JasonB]

LOL - 2 point line and peeps calling for a TCU blowout. All the other sports at SMU proving they can hang with arguably tougher ACC competition and peeps yelling we have no chance to win ACC games in football. PTSD is real for us!

Like I said, I think this is a tough matchup for us. I don't think it reflects how competitive we will be in the ACC. I hope I am wrong about today!

[rootertooter]

LOL - 2 point line and peeps calling for a TCU blowout. All the other sports at SMU proving they can hang with arguably tougher ACC competition and peeps yelling we have no chance to win ACC games in football. PTSD is real for us!

Like I said, I think this is a tough matchup for us. I don't think it reflects how competitive we will be in the ACC. I hope I am wrong about today!

That makes 2 of us! LFG!

[Hop Sing]

Hard to be optimistic when it took a miracle to beat Nevada, and we couldn’t score a touchdown in the loss at HOME to the fighting Mormans

[Hop Sing]

Hopefully the extra week gave them time to come up with a winning strategy

[Miguelpony]

Will there be enough water this time around? 2 years ago was a joke. Hope we have that sorted out.