W2W4 - Florida State

[JasonB]

Well, the big game is finally here. First game in the ACC, at home, against a big name opponent. And while Florida State's season isn't going well so far, that is going to change over the course of the season. There is just too much talent on the roster for it to do otherwise. FSU is fighting for their lives in order to drag their way back into the conference race, while SMU is attempting to make a statement that we belong and are here to compete. It should be a heck of a game, and some old school, hit them in the mouth, physical football.

SMU RUNNING AGAINST FSU DEFENSE

This is probably the biggest matchup of the game. Clearly, we are becoming a run-first team supplemented by an efficient passing attack. Last week's 238 at a 5.7 clip against TCU was fantastic. Clearly the offensive line has come together, and the combo of Chamblee-Parr-Clark-Osborne-PJ was outstanding last week. Chamblee is the weakest of the group right now, but as he gets more fit and into the scheme, his stock is going to rise substantially.

In the backfield, Brashard has been awesome. But now we are starting to run into some depth issues. LJ has actually run the ball okay, but his availability has been an issue and now he is in concussion protocol. McFall has shown some explosion, and Daniels can shift but we could be in a situation where we don't have any power backs. Jennings certainly takes some of that load off, but with his frame you can't let him get hit too much against the big linemen in the FSU defense. Yes, we want to run the ball 40 times, but I only want 15 of those from Smith to keep him fresh. Jennings will take 10, which means we are going to need at least 15 carries out of the other three backs, and my guess would be those are split between McFall and Daniels.

Now, when it comes to Florida State, I think it might be stuck in our minds what their defense did against BC and GT. But against Memphis and Cal, their running defense was actually quite good. One of the differences against those teams is that GT and BC both had mobile QBs, and FSU really struggled to contain them. The LBs were over aggressive against the zone read, and it absolutely killed them when they guessed wrong. This game is going to be an interesting test to see if they still have the same old issues, or if they have fixed a lot of things defensively. My guess is the latter. The FSU defense has been top 30 in the country the last three years, they were amazing last season, and the bones are all there to be fantastic again.

With TCU, they had low ranking recruits at DT who weren't performing well, and we abused them last weekend. FSU is different. They have talent at DT, and it is actually not the DTs who are struggling in the running game. Their DEs are the ones who haven't played as well against the run, the LB corps has not been good either, and they have really struggled at strong safety. In particular, Marvin Jones Junior at DE, Lundy at LB, and Kirkland at SS have been terrible against the run.

So, whereas against TCU we ran straight up the middle, in this game I think we are going to end up having success with the zone read (to add a bit of misdirection to the LBs) and running behind the tackles. If we can find PJ matched up against Jones, that is the advantage I would like to see us take advantage of.

This is a matchup SMU can win, but it is also important to note that FSU isn't going to give up a ton of explosives. SMU is going to have to grind it out and keep this a short yardage game. It is critical to limit negative plays and penalties in order for us to drive the ball against them. And when we do get an explosive, it is something we have to take advantage of.

SMU PASSING AGAINST FSU DEFENSE

This matchup is NOT in SMU's favor. The corners (FSU plays in a 4-2-5) are outstanding, and they have depth. They struggle a bit at safety and at LB. This is probably not a game where you are going to see the wideouts have success. FSU is also very quick, so the WR screen isn't going to be great. I would look for a lot of misdirection in the passing game. Playaction rollouts in order to neutralize the pass rush. This is a game where Jennings over Stone gives SMU a better advantage - in a straight dropback offense, their DEs will have an advantage over us at tackle and put the QB under pressure non-stop. By getting Jennings outside the pocket, it will put a lot of pressure on FSU at LB and S, their two weakest positions. I would look for a lot of rollout with the TE over the middle - if the LB/S take the TE, Jennings runs. If they come track Jennings, he completes the easy pass. I would anticipate a very heavy focus on TE in the SMU passing attack.

But again, I think the Mustangs are going to really focus on the running game and just use the passing game to complement it. If FSU shuts down the run, or finds a way to create negative plays, it is going to be a long day for the SMU offense.

FSU RUNNING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE

Roydell Williams is their starter and out of the game. But he wasn't having a very good season. Toafill will get most of their carries and has just been okay. It is weird to say about FSU, but the explosiveness of their offensive players just isn't really there. And this isn't just a one year thing. If you look at the offense in 2022 to 2023 to 2024, the metrics have dropped substantially each season. The offense was elite in 2022, then in 2023 Explosives, play efficiency, negative plays, and rushing effectiveness dropped substantially, but they were saved by QB1. Now this season, they have dropped substantially more. They are only averaging 3.3 ypc.

Usually, when you see regression like that it starts to point at the oline, and that is certainly the case this season. This might be a bit on Norvell, because at Memphis he always preferred pass blocking OL to Run blocking. The OL overall has been a big problem, and they have moved players around quite a bit over the course of the first four games. I'm not sure if it is because of injury or just trying to find the right pieces. They may have found something in Early, who missed the first two games but is now their starting RT and is doing a good job. Smith at C is pretty solid. But they are really struggling at both guard positions and at LT.

With the depth of our defensive line and strength at LB, I would expect SMU to control the FSU running attack similar to how we did against TCU. The one thing to watch on our end is the health of Kilgore - he was limited last week and Miyazano really struggled in his place.

FSU PASSING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE

Let's start with DJU. His stats are terrible - 55% completion percentage (worst in the league), 6.6 ypa (3rd worst), 2 TDs (worst) to 3 INT (second most). 3.8 BTT% (low). On the other hand, his Low Turnover worthy play rate of 1.3 is pretty decent, and the 10 drops from his receivers lead the league. His rating from PFF isn't great, but it isn't terrible. And he was great last year at OSU.
What is going on?

When you start to dig a little deeper, you start to see the real problem. Second in the league in balls thrown away. Leads the league in defensive pressures. 4th in sacks. His sack to pressure ratio isn't too bad, but he doesn't have the escapability of Jennings (4.2 pressure to sack percentage is amazing). His time to throw isn't great, but it is middle of the pack, so he isn't holding the ball too long. His OL is not protecting him very well. His Center does a great job, and his RT is okay, but RG, LG, and LT are not good at all in pass protection.

When DJU is kept clean, he completes 65% of his passes and has a 90 NFL rating. When he is under pressure, it drops to 39.1% and a 37. That tells the story.

As we know, with the SMU defense, our weakness is at corner. Smoke hasn't been good, and neither Deuce or Crossley have been able to show the ability to be a number 1 corner. We get saved by our safeties and slot corner, which are outstanding. But FSU just hasn't had anyone really step forward at WR. Douglas hasn't started, but he is emerging a little bit and is someone to watch. They have a lot of drops and are similar to our WR group in that they haven't had anyone step up, even though you know the athleticism is there. our safeties are awesome, and DJ throws a lot of ints in the middle of the field on passes over 10 yards. So, that aspect of our passing defense could really be disruptive.

PREDICTION

This matchup really favors SMU. Defensively, I think our DL is going to be a challenge for their OL to deal with. It is going to be hard for them to get consistency in the running game, and the pressure we can create in their passing game is going to be disruptive while generating negative plays. It was a challenge disrupting Hoover at times last week because he gets rid of the ball so quickly, but that isn't the case with DJU. I'm sure they will take advantage of us at corner for a couple of long plays. But I can't see them generating consistent offense.

On the other side of the coin, I think grinding it out through Jennings is a great fit. The key will be converting drives into TDs, but I do think we can put enough pressure on the edge to make it happen once.

This game is going to be close, physical, and dominated by the two defenses. Basically the opposite of last week. Turnovers and penalties could swing the game in an unexpected direction, so keep that in mind, but I'll take SMU.

SMU 19, FSU 10.

[SmooBoy]

thanks as always, jasonb! any ponyfan will take this all day long!

[BUS]

Thank you Jason.
Christian from the Saturday breakfast and practice. Is coming to the game and bought one of my tickets.
Let's hope your prediction hold true.
Peace
G

[crazy horse]

Excellent. I see them much like TCU. They have the athletes to win. But there is just something that is not quite right. In TCUs case, I think its largely Dykes. For FSU, I think last year did something to their confidence. And of course everything stated above.

If SMU plays like they did against TCU, we got this.

Go Mustangs!!