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Thoughts on the Louisville game

PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2024 9:00 pm
by JasonB
Sorry for the delay - I was out of town until last night (not at the game, unfortunately) and wanted to make sure I had enough time to put everything together... but what a game and what a win! As I said going in, Louisville is a really good team. To go out there and win like that, the way we did, that was big boy football. We haven't won a game on the road against a team that good in a long, long time.

- Let's start with Jennings. That dude is incredible. Such a smart QB, and just some outstanding throws, especially the ones to the outside down the line. His deep ball isn't there yet, otherwise he has a couple of more huge completions on Saturday, but it will eventually be there. On the broadcast they kept bringing up Lamar Jackson because we were playing Louisville. But that isn't accurate. Lamar was really an athlete playing QB for most of his college career, with crazy running numbers. Jennings is QB1, first and foremost. Don't get me wrong, he is dangerous running and great moving around. But he makes some great throws, and his completion percentage has been fantastic since being named the starter, well over 70%. RG3? RG3 had the high completion percentage, more explosive plays throwing it deep, maybe a more explosive runner. More prototype height. Didn't really make the great passes Jennings makes, he was a system guy. Let's see... Mobile, undersized, but pass-first.... not Baker, he was more of a shot taker and not as athletic. Same with Romo. And then it hit me. Russell Wilson. Efficient, effective, runs the show, rocket arm. Athletic but pass-first. Does what it takes to win. We might have Russell freaking Wilson at QB.
- Louisville's defense is really good. I thought we needed to throw the ball to back them off the line, and that first play call going empty set and a nice throw was a fantastic call to set the tone of the game. We opened the game enough just enough to keep them from pressuring the line with the LBs, who are awesome.
- I also mentioned that their over-aggressive play hurts them on misdirection, and the zone reads from Jennings were great.
- I know we complain about the receivers, but the deep threat they provide keeps teams off the line. Louisville was not able to play nearly as aggressive against us as they were against ND. It tells us the elite playmakers that we have. They kept players high for a lot of the game, and we were just barely off when we tried to hit single coverage deep. It was enough of a threat to back them off.
- First game we saw Brashard struggle to make a big impact, but again their LBs are awesome. That isn't going to happen much the rest of the season. Nice to see LJ get some carries, it is going to be really important the rest of the season. I'm a little surprised we ran right so much instead of left. PJ is a very good run blocker, but their best run end is on our right side. We had decent success up the middle, which was expected when their LBs were off the line.
- Really impressed with our our OL got better as the game went along. Especially with us not rotating out linemen for the first time all season. Byrd struggled in pass-pro, which I expected coming into the game, and was part of the reason I wanted us to run left behind him- to wear their speed DE down. Byrd can be a powerful run blocker, but struggles in pass protection. It will be very interesting to keep an eye on the competition between him and Chamblee over the bye week.
- RJ was awesome. Expected him to have opportunities because the aggressive defense enables a lot of 1v1 and he won his share. I think we will see more of those double TE looks the rest of the season. That was a new wrinkle and really worked well.
- Also was great to see a big breakout from Smith in a big game. We will see more from him the rest of the season. That rotation of Moochie and Smith has really started to step up.
- Defensively, I thought we really missed Tank. Especially early in the game. Jefferson started for him and struggled a bit in the running game, getting turned. I mentioned in the preview that the Louisville RBs are talented, especially that Issac Brown, who really gashed us early. I'm surprised they didn't get him more touches over the course of the game. After the early drives, however, Lockhart came in and did a solid job, and after that the rotation smoothed out and we got better play at NG. JHH and Roberson had a strong rotation inside.
- Stepping up was really important. We knew they had deep threats and would take shots, so we needed to play some zone and some 2 deep. In order to do that, you have to be able to stop the run, and you also have to be able to pressure the QB with the 4 DL. After a rough start, the DL started playing better against the run, and the depth at DL really became a factor late in the game when the SMU line broke through and got a ton of pressures and couple of sacks. We out-pressured them 26 to 10 in the game, which was really critical. When Shough was clean, he completed 72% of his passes. When pressured, that dropped to 52%, plus we got 3 sacks. Roberts ended with 5 hurries, a sack, 3 tackles, and assist. Just a massive game. Harvey had 3 hurries and a QB hit, Robertson 2 hurries and a sack, and Smith 3 hurries and a hit. Lots of pressure by the 4 DE. 5 pressures from DT straight up the middle. Really impressive how SMU was able to take control of both sides of the line of scrimmage at the end of the game.
- Safety came up big again. NWO had 10 tackles and the winning INT. Huge game. Sanders in the slot I thought had a really good game. Physical and controlled the inside passing game. Didn't allow the YAC. McGill unfortunately gave up the big play, but outside of that was pretty solid.
- Corner we knew was going to be an issue against that QB and that WR group, When Smoke got beat early, it looked like it might end up being a really long day. A little surprised the pulled the plug on him so quick, but Crossley switched sides to match up against their top guy and was able to slow Brooks down. Importantly, Deuce came in and played well on the other side. I think we will probably see a change here in the off-week. Smoke has speed, but just doesn't read things well enough, there was really no reason for him to get beat early. I still think Nettles will end up playing this season, but I bet they wait until after that last bye so that they can keep his redshirt.

Also, I want to give RL some props. This is clearly the style of offense he wants to run - physical, run based, mobile QB. He adjusted what he needed to do under Dykes. And last year he tried at first to be physical but adjusted back to a pass first offense when he saw he didn't have the line or QB to run that style, and won a conference championship with it. But that is the sign of a great coach - willing to change your preferences to the best fit of the team. And now he has a team that fits the style of play that he likes, and we are seeing the results in terms of offensive efficiency.

Awesome game, and the best away result against a quality team in forever. But now the hard part starts. From here on out, the team has to play with the burden of expectations because they will be favored in every game. Win out, and you are guaranteed a spot in the ACC Championship game and probably a place in the CFP. Lose one and probably make the ACC Championship, but have to win that game in order to make the CFP. Lose two and out of the running for both. And there are zero easy games left. Stanford is the "weakest" team, but they played TCU close and beat Syracuse on the road before QB1 got injured. He is a mobile QB, which always gives Symons' defense fits, and could be healthy for our game. Duke has a really good defense. Pitt is a good team with a strong QB and a good defense. BC has Castellanos and some mojo against SMU. Virginia showed this weekend that they are not a fluke. And Cal is clearly a good team.

It won't be easy, and a penalty/weather/turnover game or two is going to come our way at some point. Injuries at RB might continue to pile up. Depth at OL as definitely something to watch. But it sure as hell is going to fun to watch this team and our physical style of play on both sides of the ball make a run for the ACC in year 1.

Re: Thoughts on the Louisville game

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2024 12:08 am
by peruna81
The most notable thing about what you have observed each week is that our success is 'repeatable'...no one game fluke of good fortune, but instead a plan that emphasizes our strengths and minimizes deficiencies...and one that can be duplicated each week with tweeks for each opponent.

I won't make light of the now-tired "pick against us again, JasonB" cracks, as most can see that your analysis is pretty complete. It just may be, with all things considered...this is the best SMU team since the early 80s, and we are in for a fun season.

Anyhow, deeply appreciate you sharing your wisdom for us to read.

Re: Thoughts on the Louisville game

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:50 am
by Arkpony
Thanks Jason! Your before and after analysis is always looked forward to!

Re: Thoughts on the Louisville game

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:15 am
by Topper
There has been a lot of whining about the production of the WRs this year including from me. But these guys all seem to be exceptional blockers and don't mind that duty when called upon. Kudos.

Re: Thoughts on the Louisville game

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:17 am
by PerunaPunch
"But now the hard part starts. From here on out, the team has to play with the burden of expectations because they will be favored in every game."

Isn't that the best kind of FB? Where every game is do or die. I just hope these kids are more mature than I was at 20. A huge, and life changing opportunity for all of them.

Thank you JasonB. Superb and insightful as always. A tough two weeks to wait until Stanford.

Re: Thoughts on the Louisville game

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2024 11:42 am
by EastStang
We have one game, Stanford as I said on another thread.