W2W4 - Duke
Posted: Fri Oct 25, 2024 1:33 pmDefense wins championships, right? In that case, we have two of the top teams in the ACC going against each other on Saturday evening, and it should be a physical grind of a game. You can question Duke's strength of schedule as much as you want, but their defense has played well against just about everyone. Manny Diaz is an elite defensive coordinator, and he has maximized the ability of the group - they are good against the run, have a strong secondary, and force turnovers. As we saw in Pitt - Syracuse last night (and Duke-FSU last week), turnovers can significantly impact the game. With SMU coming off a 3 turnover performance against Stanford, it is something to keep your eye on.
SMU RUNNING AGAINST DUKE DEFENSE
Duke actually plays a 4-3. They have one LB (4) who is more active and is that hybrid LB/S... the Tank position that TCU had back in the day under Gary Patterson, so it kind of morphs into a 4-2-5. They will play it pretty vanilla, which shows how confident they are about their players, until 3rd down. On 3rd and long they do some different stuff that we will talk about in the passing game.
Watching the FSU and GT games, they have a big line up front that is really effective against the run. They do have a tendency for the DTs to get overaggressive up the field at times, which can leave running gaps and leads to explosive plays. And they wore down a bit against Georgia Tech and allowed some running plays. But they get a lot of tackles behind the line of scrimmage, especially on running plays inside where it bounces outside because their pursuit from the LBs is fantastic. 12 is good really good at LB, but really all 4 of the LBs they will use - 12, 4, 3, and 45 - all show up and make plays. In fact, 12 is the lowest rated starter they have on defense by PFF, but he is still over 60 and he was all ACC second team last year. They don't have guys with huge tackling numbers because everyone gets involved.
What I saw GT do was to go lateral and try to make the LBs run outside - lots of RB screens, WR screens. I think we will see a lot of that lateral game, especially early. Teams kind of don't even bother to run up the middle against Duke early in the game - if you get behind the chains, their defense really turns it up a notch. Third down conversions are a disaster. So you want to try and get yards on first down.
I think SMU is going to run a bit of WR screen early to get them moving lateral, and it is going to be an extension of the running game. I'd also look for the jet sweep quite a bit and run some counter off of it. Brashard in the backfield with Junior coming in motion, sometimes you fake the jet sweep and run Brashard in the opposite direction to try and catch them in over-pursuit.
It is a challenge to run off tackle against them. They have size but are also athletic on the line, and the push the DTs get make it hard to bump outside. Instead, I think you have to run between guard and tackle - guard on a DT, tackle on the DE and then you have your H-Back try and take out the outside LB to spring a play. You will also see us run straight inside with the RB and try and pull a guard to block a LB. The zone read is also hard - because they have 3 LBs, they have players to take the option.
SMU is going to need to run the ball to be effective on offense, and it is going to be a hard slog. SMU has to keep the negative plays to a minimum. Parr is going to have to be a lot better than last week in order for this to work. Successful drives against Duke aren't explosive plays. They are long, sustained drives that pick up 4 or 5 yards per play. Penalties and negative plays will absolutely kill you. This is the most important matchup of the game offensively for SMU.
SMU PASSING OFFENSE AGAINST DUKE
Duke's pass defense is excellent. They get great safety play like SMU does and their corners, especially number 0, are fantastic. The DL has created a lot of sacks... they don't have a ton of pressures, but the secondary will create sacks for them at times. They don't have that stud super athletic edge that scares you - the matchups will be better for us at LT because they are more size guys who are good athletes, not the super athletic twitch players like number 23 for Stanford.
Because they are so good at corner and they play a 4-3, Bailey is going to be a big key in this game. He needs to be able to beat number 4, their hybrid LB and provide some opportunities for Jennings. One thing to watch in this game is that while Duke's pass defense has been outstanding, they really haven't played against teams that are pass-first. The corners are outstanding, don't get me wrong, but they really don't play a lot of nickel coverage and I am interested to see how they adjust against SMU with our slot and TE in the passing game. They have three safeties that rotate in who are all good players in both supporting the run and helping in coverage. There just aren't a lot of weaknesses in the group, which is why their pass defense EPA is 9th in the country.
I suspect they will try to play a lot of straight man. 4 will be on Bailey, and they will use an LB to spy on Jennings. This is where we will really miss RJ. With RJ as a threat, you can't get away with LB coverage. You start having to play zone or bracket him with a safety. It opens up the field for other players. Without him, they can get away with man and assigning a spy on Jennings.
When they get you in 3rd and long, things get really difficult. They will put 7 or 8 players on the line of scrimmage in blitz positions, and then shift right after the snap where you rush 4 or 5 random players and then the others drop back in coverage. It is very difficult to read, and as a result they have awesome third down percentages. Penalties and negative plays have to be kept to a minimum.
Because of how good Duke is defensively, and how much they struggle on offense, I expect us to be pretty conservative on offense. Most of our passes will be screens with the occasional deep shot, testing 26 on our left side. If Jennings can connect with K Smith on one of those, it will force the safeties back and that will help us out tremendously. The downside, of course, is that if you waste plays against these guys and get behind the chains, you are in a lot of trouble.
DUKE RUNNING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE
Keep in mind that Brewer went to Duke, so you are going to see us play against the SMU offensive concept, but with less explosive players.
Star Thomas is their best back, and his backup Peyton Jones is solid as well. Both are combo backs - they are not super fast, but have a good mix of size and speed and run really physically. The OL is solid, there are not a lot of issues there, but they also don't get a huge push. They just don't generate explosive plays in the running game. And the zero or negative gains kill them on offense because of the lack of explosive players. Murphy at QB doesn't participate in the running game and isn't a threat. This is the best aspect of their offense, but it is really just kind of meh. They don't run well to the outside - their most productive runs are right up the middle, which is kind of how they are built as a team - good size, good players, but not a lot of elite athletes on the offensive side... similar to Stanford, but with a better QB and a better, more experienced OL.
Unfortunately for Duke, up the middle is also where SMU excels. The depth at DT and on the line is going to be a real challenge for Duke to overcome in the running game. I expect Duke to really struggle moving the ball on SMU and the ground game won't be consistent.
DUKE PASSING AGAINST THE SMU DEFENSE
Murphy has great size as a QB and has a very strong arm. The challenge I see from him is that the majority of his passes are drop back and get rid of the ball quickly right down the seams. Occasionally he will throw the deep ball, but he doesn't connect on it very frequently, and it is almost thrown to try and draw an interference penalty. They don't ask him to drop back and roll through progressions. It is very simplified, and they want him to release the ball quickly. It leads to a lot of 100 mph throws on the seems that are hard to catch, and a little off target.
I suspect that part of the issue is lack of faith in the line, and part is the QB himself. The line gets good protection ratings overall, but they aren't asked to do a whole lot. The LT is the weakest point, so it is going to be interesting to see how much SMU can take advantage at that spot, but you don't get a lot of sacks against Duke because they release the ball so quickly.
The net result is that again, this is going to play right into what SMU wants to do on defense. Our strength in the passing game is our safety play and nickel corner, and that is right where these passes go on the seams. Even on the outside, Crossley is much better in close coverage than he is down the field, so he will be able to cover effectively. Additionally, Murphy is so static in the pocket that if JHH and Roberson free up inside on the pass rush, he is in a lot of trouble.
PREDICTION
I do think that missing RJ is going to impact SMU's offense in this game. I also am concerned about the number of turnovers and penalties we had against Stanford, because those can absolutely derail us. And because this is going to be a grind it out game on offense, our depth at RB could become a problem. Brashard and Junior need to be on a 12 carry limit, which means we may need LJ to run the ball 20 times on Saturday.
That said, I think this is another fantastic matchup for SMU defensively. I think the only way we give up more than 20 points in this game is with turnovers.
SMU has more explosive players on offense and special teams, and that gives SMU the lead early. Eventually, the fast pace of both offenses combined with ineffectivess of Duke's offense leads to a massive play difference and SMU just wears the Duke front 7 down.
SMU 31 Duke 10
SMU RUNNING AGAINST DUKE DEFENSE
Duke actually plays a 4-3. They have one LB (4) who is more active and is that hybrid LB/S... the Tank position that TCU had back in the day under Gary Patterson, so it kind of morphs into a 4-2-5. They will play it pretty vanilla, which shows how confident they are about their players, until 3rd down. On 3rd and long they do some different stuff that we will talk about in the passing game.
Watching the FSU and GT games, they have a big line up front that is really effective against the run. They do have a tendency for the DTs to get overaggressive up the field at times, which can leave running gaps and leads to explosive plays. And they wore down a bit against Georgia Tech and allowed some running plays. But they get a lot of tackles behind the line of scrimmage, especially on running plays inside where it bounces outside because their pursuit from the LBs is fantastic. 12 is good really good at LB, but really all 4 of the LBs they will use - 12, 4, 3, and 45 - all show up and make plays. In fact, 12 is the lowest rated starter they have on defense by PFF, but he is still over 60 and he was all ACC second team last year. They don't have guys with huge tackling numbers because everyone gets involved.
What I saw GT do was to go lateral and try to make the LBs run outside - lots of RB screens, WR screens. I think we will see a lot of that lateral game, especially early. Teams kind of don't even bother to run up the middle against Duke early in the game - if you get behind the chains, their defense really turns it up a notch. Third down conversions are a disaster. So you want to try and get yards on first down.
I think SMU is going to run a bit of WR screen early to get them moving lateral, and it is going to be an extension of the running game. I'd also look for the jet sweep quite a bit and run some counter off of it. Brashard in the backfield with Junior coming in motion, sometimes you fake the jet sweep and run Brashard in the opposite direction to try and catch them in over-pursuit.
It is a challenge to run off tackle against them. They have size but are also athletic on the line, and the push the DTs get make it hard to bump outside. Instead, I think you have to run between guard and tackle - guard on a DT, tackle on the DE and then you have your H-Back try and take out the outside LB to spring a play. You will also see us run straight inside with the RB and try and pull a guard to block a LB. The zone read is also hard - because they have 3 LBs, they have players to take the option.
SMU is going to need to run the ball to be effective on offense, and it is going to be a hard slog. SMU has to keep the negative plays to a minimum. Parr is going to have to be a lot better than last week in order for this to work. Successful drives against Duke aren't explosive plays. They are long, sustained drives that pick up 4 or 5 yards per play. Penalties and negative plays will absolutely kill you. This is the most important matchup of the game offensively for SMU.
SMU PASSING OFFENSE AGAINST DUKE
Duke's pass defense is excellent. They get great safety play like SMU does and their corners, especially number 0, are fantastic. The DL has created a lot of sacks... they don't have a ton of pressures, but the secondary will create sacks for them at times. They don't have that stud super athletic edge that scares you - the matchups will be better for us at LT because they are more size guys who are good athletes, not the super athletic twitch players like number 23 for Stanford.
Because they are so good at corner and they play a 4-3, Bailey is going to be a big key in this game. He needs to be able to beat number 4, their hybrid LB and provide some opportunities for Jennings. One thing to watch in this game is that while Duke's pass defense has been outstanding, they really haven't played against teams that are pass-first. The corners are outstanding, don't get me wrong, but they really don't play a lot of nickel coverage and I am interested to see how they adjust against SMU with our slot and TE in the passing game. They have three safeties that rotate in who are all good players in both supporting the run and helping in coverage. There just aren't a lot of weaknesses in the group, which is why their pass defense EPA is 9th in the country.
I suspect they will try to play a lot of straight man. 4 will be on Bailey, and they will use an LB to spy on Jennings. This is where we will really miss RJ. With RJ as a threat, you can't get away with LB coverage. You start having to play zone or bracket him with a safety. It opens up the field for other players. Without him, they can get away with man and assigning a spy on Jennings.
When they get you in 3rd and long, things get really difficult. They will put 7 or 8 players on the line of scrimmage in blitz positions, and then shift right after the snap where you rush 4 or 5 random players and then the others drop back in coverage. It is very difficult to read, and as a result they have awesome third down percentages. Penalties and negative plays have to be kept to a minimum.
Because of how good Duke is defensively, and how much they struggle on offense, I expect us to be pretty conservative on offense. Most of our passes will be screens with the occasional deep shot, testing 26 on our left side. If Jennings can connect with K Smith on one of those, it will force the safeties back and that will help us out tremendously. The downside, of course, is that if you waste plays against these guys and get behind the chains, you are in a lot of trouble.
DUKE RUNNING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE
Keep in mind that Brewer went to Duke, so you are going to see us play against the SMU offensive concept, but with less explosive players.
Star Thomas is their best back, and his backup Peyton Jones is solid as well. Both are combo backs - they are not super fast, but have a good mix of size and speed and run really physically. The OL is solid, there are not a lot of issues there, but they also don't get a huge push. They just don't generate explosive plays in the running game. And the zero or negative gains kill them on offense because of the lack of explosive players. Murphy at QB doesn't participate in the running game and isn't a threat. This is the best aspect of their offense, but it is really just kind of meh. They don't run well to the outside - their most productive runs are right up the middle, which is kind of how they are built as a team - good size, good players, but not a lot of elite athletes on the offensive side... similar to Stanford, but with a better QB and a better, more experienced OL.
Unfortunately for Duke, up the middle is also where SMU excels. The depth at DT and on the line is going to be a real challenge for Duke to overcome in the running game. I expect Duke to really struggle moving the ball on SMU and the ground game won't be consistent.
DUKE PASSING AGAINST THE SMU DEFENSE
Murphy has great size as a QB and has a very strong arm. The challenge I see from him is that the majority of his passes are drop back and get rid of the ball quickly right down the seams. Occasionally he will throw the deep ball, but he doesn't connect on it very frequently, and it is almost thrown to try and draw an interference penalty. They don't ask him to drop back and roll through progressions. It is very simplified, and they want him to release the ball quickly. It leads to a lot of 100 mph throws on the seems that are hard to catch, and a little off target.
I suspect that part of the issue is lack of faith in the line, and part is the QB himself. The line gets good protection ratings overall, but they aren't asked to do a whole lot. The LT is the weakest point, so it is going to be interesting to see how much SMU can take advantage at that spot, but you don't get a lot of sacks against Duke because they release the ball so quickly.
The net result is that again, this is going to play right into what SMU wants to do on defense. Our strength in the passing game is our safety play and nickel corner, and that is right where these passes go on the seams. Even on the outside, Crossley is much better in close coverage than he is down the field, so he will be able to cover effectively. Additionally, Murphy is so static in the pocket that if JHH and Roberson free up inside on the pass rush, he is in a lot of trouble.
PREDICTION
I do think that missing RJ is going to impact SMU's offense in this game. I also am concerned about the number of turnovers and penalties we had against Stanford, because those can absolutely derail us. And because this is going to be a grind it out game on offense, our depth at RB could become a problem. Brashard and Junior need to be on a 12 carry limit, which means we may need LJ to run the ball 20 times on Saturday.
That said, I think this is another fantastic matchup for SMU defensively. I think the only way we give up more than 20 points in this game is with turnovers.
SMU has more explosive players on offense and special teams, and that gives SMU the lead early. Eventually, the fast pace of both offenses combined with ineffectivess of Duke's offense leads to a massive play difference and SMU just wears the Duke front 7 down.
SMU 31 Duke 10