W2W4 - Pitt
Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2024 7:51 pmWell, here we go, we all made it to the big game. Last week was scary, we almost lost the opportunity to fight for the conference championship. But, another week, another knockout game. Whoever wins this game has a shot at the ACC Championship and the CFP. The loser is pretty much done.
Pitt is a very good football team. They aren't getting the national respect because they were terrible least year. But make no mistake, they are a very good team. Similar to SMU, they played two Big 12 teams OOC - WVU and Cincy - but Pitt beat them both. Both WVU and Cincy are 3-2 in the Big 12, the same record as TCU. And the Cincy win was on the road.
It isn't a fluke, either. In 2022, they went 9-4 with a really good defense and a solid offense built around running the ball. 2023 was a step back because they were awful offensively and swapped out the OC. In 2024, the offense has been good, and this time more efficient in the air. The QB transfer from Bama has been very good, and they have some playmakers at RB and WR to go with him.
But the constant is that defense, which once again is top 25 and actually ranked ahead of SMU in the efficiency metrics. Pitt runs a 4-3, just like Duke did, with one player, Louis (9), playing the hybrid LB/S role. The difference between Pitt and Duke, however, is that while both teams have great LB units, they use them in different ways. Duke sits the LBs off the ball and lets the DL do the work, and then the LBs react. They wait until third and long to really send pressure at the QB. Pitt is more like Louisville - who had great LBs and blitzed them constantly (even though it was out of a 4-2-5). Pitt will pressure with the LBs and try to do what they can to produce negative plays. They blitz and then play a variety of different zone coverages in the secondary, so the QB has to make reads very quickly. They will disguise which LB is blitzing really well. Very complicated defense to play against.
SMU RUNNING AGAINST PITT DEFENSE
I'm going to run with the assumption that both Jennings and Osborne are healthy for SMU. As I mentioned, Duke blitzes a ton. And they have a really good run defense, both from a total yardage and an efficiency perspective. The one flag you would put up is their need to blitz. PFF has a "stop" metric - tackles that constitute a failure for the offense. When you look at SMU and Duke, the LBs make plays, but there are a lot of stops by the DL, both on the edge and at DT. Roberts has 19, JHH 13, Smith 14, Harvey 10, Roberson 7, Lockhart 6, Cam 10, Jefferson 6, Tank 3 (88 total).
When you look at Pitt's stats, they are all from LB and S. Their linemen with over 100 snaps played have 2, 13, 8, 7, 6, 6, 5, 4, and 3 (54 total). They have defended the same number of plays as SMU, and generate the same number of stops, but it all comes from LB. This is a little bit of a red flag for me, like Louisville. Their DL does a good job of holding the line and creating space for the LBs to clean up the running game. But they don't penetrate, and they don't generate the negative plays in the running game that Duke was great at (and SMU avoided).
SMU at this point has shown that they can run the ball against pretty much anybody. As long as Osborne is healthy (remember, we quit running against Duke when he got hurt), I expect the same will be true here. SMU will go 1v1 on the line and bring in an H-Back or pull the off guard in order to take out a LB. The Pitt safeties are great in the run game, and will limit the number of explosives you get. But I expect us to attack them straight up the middle and grind out a running game.
One thing to keep an eye on - I believe Bailey is out, so with Junior at slot full-time, someone is going to need to take carries from Brashard. We need double digit carries from LJ and we need and few from McFall as well. If we don't see McFall in this game, he must have an injury and may not play the rest of the season. As long as we have healthy bodies and a healthy OL, I believe we will be able to run the ball.
SMU PASSING AGAINST PITT DEFENSE
Because of the blitzing, the numbers will tell you that Pitt's secondary is vulnerable. I disagree with those assessments. The two corners, Battle and Gandy look really good on film. In fact, Battle is higher rated on PFF, but I think Gandy is better from what I see. Gandy will take our right hand side, Hudson, while Battle is on the left against K Smith. The starting safeties are really good as well. The depth struggles in coverage a bit more. But this is a good secondary, as they showed with 5 INTs against Syracuse. This, of course, scares the heck out of you coming off the Duke game.
In the Syracuse game, Pitt really got after the Syracuse QB, who is a pocket QB. He was forced to release the ball quicker than he wanted. Pitt's LBs, S, and Corners sat in the zone, and really attacked the short routes to intercept the ball on those quick throws. The third LB, Louis, is a great athlete and is fantastic both in the run game and in coverage. He will lineup on the side Junior lines up, I believe. The other LBs they have are much better when they are asked to blitz or play the run than they are in the passing game. SMU needs to find a way to get Hibner, Junior, and Brashard to get matched up against the weaker LBs in coverage or find a place to sit in the zone.
The Pitt defensive line, especially the ends and the LBs do a great job putting pressure on the QB. Number 2 at DE I really like - he is big enough to play he run well but is also very quick. Jennings, of course, is mobile, but we really saw him struggle for the first time against Duke when he got outside the pocket. And Duke, similar to Pitt, would play man on the outside and then zone in the middle. Playing zone can really help defend a mobile QB because you are in your zone facing the QB, so it allows you to swarm when he crosses the LOS. And that caused Jennings to get hit a lot early on the run than he was used to and he fumbled the ball. We also don't know if the injury from last week will hamper Jennings' mobility and willingness to run. When Jennings had to force a throw last week, he really struggled to read the defense and find players in space in zone coverage. Between the weather, the strength of the Pitt secondary, the zone concepts and Jenning's game last week, this could be tough sledding for Jennings.
PITT RUNNING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE
One injury to note is that the Pitt starting LT is out for the year. The OL as a whole has been okay in the running game, but they aren't dominant. The key to the running game are the playmakers. Reid is the starting RB and is a Brashard Smith clone. He is absolutely fantastic. Super quick, surprises you with his power. Explosive runner. He is really the thing that makes the whole offense run. He started his career at Western Carolina and transferred in this season. Holstein, the frosh QB, has also been very effective in the running game and is averaging over 7 yards per carry. He does have fumble issues like Jennings, but they are very different runners. Holstein is 6'4, and is more like Josh Allen in the running game - surprisingly fast for his size and isn't afraid to run you over if he needs to. They will run some zone read, but half of his carries are off of the scramble. A much higher percentage of runs by scramble than Jennings, but not surprising for a young player. He will drop back looking to pass and then once the defense gets deep will take off and run. The RB is effective as a pass receiver as well, so he can pull a LB into the flat and allow the QB to take off.
An interesting tendency to watch is running to the right. Most of Reid's yardage is running off the RE and behind the RG. When Holstein runs on the zone read, he tends to run right as well. SMU tends to play Roberts on the left side of our line, so that is a great matchup for us.
SMU has been able to contain the run all season, and with the abillty of our DL to penetrate and create negative plays, I expect the same in this game in the standard running play. Reid is going to have a couple of explosive runs, so expect it. But the SMU LB and S should be able to contain him for the most part, and the DL will create some losses behind the LOS. The bigger concern is our tendency to play man and getting in situations where the QB is able to run on pass plays and get a 1v1 matchup on an LB. With the concussion issue last week, maybe Holstein scrambles a little bit less than usual. But him running in space worries me.
PITT PASSING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE
This is the most important matchup in the game. Let's start it by talking about Holstein. As I mentioned, he is tall and has a great frame. I used the Josh Allen comp in the running game, but his mechanics are way more polished than where Allen was early in his college career. Holstein has a very strong core, holds the ball in a high throwing position, even when he is evading pressure. He always mechanically ready to launch it and he puts good speed on the pass. You can see why he was recruited by Alabama. He looks like he studied the Mannings his entire life and went to every Manning camp.
He got off to a great start this year, with a couple of 300 yard games, but then has really struggled a bit the last couple of games. He has completed 64% of his passes overall, but is well under 60% in conference. Part of the problem is his OL - they are average in pass protect, give up pressures, and he takes sacks back there. But there are a couple of issues in his game. First is that even through he has great arm strength, he doesn't complete a ton of deep passes, and that has gotten worse as the season has gone on. Second, like most freshmen, he struggles when he is put under pressure and when he is blitzed. Finally, he doesn't do well on play action passes, which is really unfortunate given their desire to run the ball. But this is also common for frosh - by the time you look up from the play action, your clock has to move quicker and they aren't operating at the speed required to quickly identify openings to make a play. Where he is great, and where his arm shows up, is in the midrange pass.
At receiver, they have a really solid group of players. Reid as we mentioned is a great option out of the backfield, and is their second leading receiver. He is a real problem and if he gets isolated on a LB it can be trouble. Mumpfield (9) is the big threat at WR. His average depth of target is 15 yards and he averages 17.5 per catch. He is the guy that Holstein will target in the 10-20 yard range on the outside. He plays most snaps outside, but will bounce inside to slot receiver as well. He is a massive matchup issue for us on the outside. The other outside WRs that play, Lee and Johnson, are also very good receivers although not quite the same threat as Mumpfield. But they are strong on the outside. They really struggle a bit throwing it inside to Williams in the slot - low completion percentage and a lot of picks. Finally, they will use the TE in the passing game, but really he is a possession receiver, not a downfield threat.
You can see where this is a bad matchup for SMU. They have good outside WR matched up against the weakness of the SMU team (our outside corners). And a QB with the size and arm strength to hit those midrange throws that Duke hit so effectively. While I understand that Pitt hasn't thrown the ball that well the last couple of weeks, you can see all the talent is there.
What saved SMU against Duke was that our DL eventually took over the game and started generating enough pressure to disrupt the passing game while taking away the run. That is going to need to be the case on Saturday or Pitt will pick us apart on the outside.
PREDICTION
On offense, I do think we will be able to grind out yards in the running game. I worry about Jennings in the passing game against their zone, especially if he doesn't have his standard mobility. I also worry about a young QB getting things in his head after all of the turnovers last week.
Defensively, I am concerned about the matchups outside. And about Holstein in the running game.
And of course we are coming off a -6 TO game when Pitt was +5.
That said, winning a game -6 is incredible, and it shows how great the defense is and how resilient the team is. I think part of the issue was playing on the road with a smaller roster and massive travel back to back weeks. I believe SMU will be able to control both sides of the line, and the defensive line will really push to keep Holstein out of rhythm. Finally, something that jumps off the page is that Jennings' numbers are awesome against the blitz, and Pitt relies on the blitz. Even though there are going to be a ton of Pitt fans at the stadium, the students are going to provide a great atmosphere. Pitt opens the game up early, but SMU dominates the second half to win and just barely cover late in a game that is higher scoring than folks expect.
SMU 34 - Pitt 24.
Pitt is a very good football team. They aren't getting the national respect because they were terrible least year. But make no mistake, they are a very good team. Similar to SMU, they played two Big 12 teams OOC - WVU and Cincy - but Pitt beat them both. Both WVU and Cincy are 3-2 in the Big 12, the same record as TCU. And the Cincy win was on the road.
It isn't a fluke, either. In 2022, they went 9-4 with a really good defense and a solid offense built around running the ball. 2023 was a step back because they were awful offensively and swapped out the OC. In 2024, the offense has been good, and this time more efficient in the air. The QB transfer from Bama has been very good, and they have some playmakers at RB and WR to go with him.
But the constant is that defense, which once again is top 25 and actually ranked ahead of SMU in the efficiency metrics. Pitt runs a 4-3, just like Duke did, with one player, Louis (9), playing the hybrid LB/S role. The difference between Pitt and Duke, however, is that while both teams have great LB units, they use them in different ways. Duke sits the LBs off the ball and lets the DL do the work, and then the LBs react. They wait until third and long to really send pressure at the QB. Pitt is more like Louisville - who had great LBs and blitzed them constantly (even though it was out of a 4-2-5). Pitt will pressure with the LBs and try to do what they can to produce negative plays. They blitz and then play a variety of different zone coverages in the secondary, so the QB has to make reads very quickly. They will disguise which LB is blitzing really well. Very complicated defense to play against.
SMU RUNNING AGAINST PITT DEFENSE
I'm going to run with the assumption that both Jennings and Osborne are healthy for SMU. As I mentioned, Duke blitzes a ton. And they have a really good run defense, both from a total yardage and an efficiency perspective. The one flag you would put up is their need to blitz. PFF has a "stop" metric - tackles that constitute a failure for the offense. When you look at SMU and Duke, the LBs make plays, but there are a lot of stops by the DL, both on the edge and at DT. Roberts has 19, JHH 13, Smith 14, Harvey 10, Roberson 7, Lockhart 6, Cam 10, Jefferson 6, Tank 3 (88 total).
When you look at Pitt's stats, they are all from LB and S. Their linemen with over 100 snaps played have 2, 13, 8, 7, 6, 6, 5, 4, and 3 (54 total). They have defended the same number of plays as SMU, and generate the same number of stops, but it all comes from LB. This is a little bit of a red flag for me, like Louisville. Their DL does a good job of holding the line and creating space for the LBs to clean up the running game. But they don't penetrate, and they don't generate the negative plays in the running game that Duke was great at (and SMU avoided).
SMU at this point has shown that they can run the ball against pretty much anybody. As long as Osborne is healthy (remember, we quit running against Duke when he got hurt), I expect the same will be true here. SMU will go 1v1 on the line and bring in an H-Back or pull the off guard in order to take out a LB. The Pitt safeties are great in the run game, and will limit the number of explosives you get. But I expect us to attack them straight up the middle and grind out a running game.
One thing to keep an eye on - I believe Bailey is out, so with Junior at slot full-time, someone is going to need to take carries from Brashard. We need double digit carries from LJ and we need and few from McFall as well. If we don't see McFall in this game, he must have an injury and may not play the rest of the season. As long as we have healthy bodies and a healthy OL, I believe we will be able to run the ball.
SMU PASSING AGAINST PITT DEFENSE
Because of the blitzing, the numbers will tell you that Pitt's secondary is vulnerable. I disagree with those assessments. The two corners, Battle and Gandy look really good on film. In fact, Battle is higher rated on PFF, but I think Gandy is better from what I see. Gandy will take our right hand side, Hudson, while Battle is on the left against K Smith. The starting safeties are really good as well. The depth struggles in coverage a bit more. But this is a good secondary, as they showed with 5 INTs against Syracuse. This, of course, scares the heck out of you coming off the Duke game.
In the Syracuse game, Pitt really got after the Syracuse QB, who is a pocket QB. He was forced to release the ball quicker than he wanted. Pitt's LBs, S, and Corners sat in the zone, and really attacked the short routes to intercept the ball on those quick throws. The third LB, Louis, is a great athlete and is fantastic both in the run game and in coverage. He will lineup on the side Junior lines up, I believe. The other LBs they have are much better when they are asked to blitz or play the run than they are in the passing game. SMU needs to find a way to get Hibner, Junior, and Brashard to get matched up against the weaker LBs in coverage or find a place to sit in the zone.
The Pitt defensive line, especially the ends and the LBs do a great job putting pressure on the QB. Number 2 at DE I really like - he is big enough to play he run well but is also very quick. Jennings, of course, is mobile, but we really saw him struggle for the first time against Duke when he got outside the pocket. And Duke, similar to Pitt, would play man on the outside and then zone in the middle. Playing zone can really help defend a mobile QB because you are in your zone facing the QB, so it allows you to swarm when he crosses the LOS. And that caused Jennings to get hit a lot early on the run than he was used to and he fumbled the ball. We also don't know if the injury from last week will hamper Jennings' mobility and willingness to run. When Jennings had to force a throw last week, he really struggled to read the defense and find players in space in zone coverage. Between the weather, the strength of the Pitt secondary, the zone concepts and Jenning's game last week, this could be tough sledding for Jennings.
PITT RUNNING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE
One injury to note is that the Pitt starting LT is out for the year. The OL as a whole has been okay in the running game, but they aren't dominant. The key to the running game are the playmakers. Reid is the starting RB and is a Brashard Smith clone. He is absolutely fantastic. Super quick, surprises you with his power. Explosive runner. He is really the thing that makes the whole offense run. He started his career at Western Carolina and transferred in this season. Holstein, the frosh QB, has also been very effective in the running game and is averaging over 7 yards per carry. He does have fumble issues like Jennings, but they are very different runners. Holstein is 6'4, and is more like Josh Allen in the running game - surprisingly fast for his size and isn't afraid to run you over if he needs to. They will run some zone read, but half of his carries are off of the scramble. A much higher percentage of runs by scramble than Jennings, but not surprising for a young player. He will drop back looking to pass and then once the defense gets deep will take off and run. The RB is effective as a pass receiver as well, so he can pull a LB into the flat and allow the QB to take off.
An interesting tendency to watch is running to the right. Most of Reid's yardage is running off the RE and behind the RG. When Holstein runs on the zone read, he tends to run right as well. SMU tends to play Roberts on the left side of our line, so that is a great matchup for us.
SMU has been able to contain the run all season, and with the abillty of our DL to penetrate and create negative plays, I expect the same in this game in the standard running play. Reid is going to have a couple of explosive runs, so expect it. But the SMU LB and S should be able to contain him for the most part, and the DL will create some losses behind the LOS. The bigger concern is our tendency to play man and getting in situations where the QB is able to run on pass plays and get a 1v1 matchup on an LB. With the concussion issue last week, maybe Holstein scrambles a little bit less than usual. But him running in space worries me.
PITT PASSING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE
This is the most important matchup in the game. Let's start it by talking about Holstein. As I mentioned, he is tall and has a great frame. I used the Josh Allen comp in the running game, but his mechanics are way more polished than where Allen was early in his college career. Holstein has a very strong core, holds the ball in a high throwing position, even when he is evading pressure. He always mechanically ready to launch it and he puts good speed on the pass. You can see why he was recruited by Alabama. He looks like he studied the Mannings his entire life and went to every Manning camp.
He got off to a great start this year, with a couple of 300 yard games, but then has really struggled a bit the last couple of games. He has completed 64% of his passes overall, but is well under 60% in conference. Part of the problem is his OL - they are average in pass protect, give up pressures, and he takes sacks back there. But there are a couple of issues in his game. First is that even through he has great arm strength, he doesn't complete a ton of deep passes, and that has gotten worse as the season has gone on. Second, like most freshmen, he struggles when he is put under pressure and when he is blitzed. Finally, he doesn't do well on play action passes, which is really unfortunate given their desire to run the ball. But this is also common for frosh - by the time you look up from the play action, your clock has to move quicker and they aren't operating at the speed required to quickly identify openings to make a play. Where he is great, and where his arm shows up, is in the midrange pass.
At receiver, they have a really solid group of players. Reid as we mentioned is a great option out of the backfield, and is their second leading receiver. He is a real problem and if he gets isolated on a LB it can be trouble. Mumpfield (9) is the big threat at WR. His average depth of target is 15 yards and he averages 17.5 per catch. He is the guy that Holstein will target in the 10-20 yard range on the outside. He plays most snaps outside, but will bounce inside to slot receiver as well. He is a massive matchup issue for us on the outside. The other outside WRs that play, Lee and Johnson, are also very good receivers although not quite the same threat as Mumpfield. But they are strong on the outside. They really struggle a bit throwing it inside to Williams in the slot - low completion percentage and a lot of picks. Finally, they will use the TE in the passing game, but really he is a possession receiver, not a downfield threat.
You can see where this is a bad matchup for SMU. They have good outside WR matched up against the weakness of the SMU team (our outside corners). And a QB with the size and arm strength to hit those midrange throws that Duke hit so effectively. While I understand that Pitt hasn't thrown the ball that well the last couple of weeks, you can see all the talent is there.
What saved SMU against Duke was that our DL eventually took over the game and started generating enough pressure to disrupt the passing game while taking away the run. That is going to need to be the case on Saturday or Pitt will pick us apart on the outside.
PREDICTION
On offense, I do think we will be able to grind out yards in the running game. I worry about Jennings in the passing game against their zone, especially if he doesn't have his standard mobility. I also worry about a young QB getting things in his head after all of the turnovers last week.
Defensively, I am concerned about the matchups outside. And about Holstein in the running game.
And of course we are coming off a -6 TO game when Pitt was +5.
That said, winning a game -6 is incredible, and it shows how great the defense is and how resilient the team is. I think part of the issue was playing on the road with a smaller roster and massive travel back to back weeks. I believe SMU will be able to control both sides of the line, and the defensive line will really push to keep Holstein out of rhythm. Finally, something that jumps off the page is that Jennings' numbers are awesome against the blitz, and Pitt relies on the blitz. Even though there are going to be a ton of Pitt fans at the stadium, the students are going to provide a great atmosphere. Pitt opens the game up early, but SMU dominates the second half to win and just barely cover late in a game that is higher scoring than folks expect.
SMU 34 - Pitt 24.