The SMU case for the CFP
Posted: Sun Nov 10, 2024 1:34 pmObviously, if we win out, we are in. But what are the chances SMU gets an at-large?
When it comes to the CFP, the case of the Big 10 getting 4 teams makes a lot of sense - they have four that have separated themselves out from the rest of the pack, with no bad losses between them (yet).
The Big 12 is a one team conference.
If ND wins out, they are in.
One spot is going to the G5.
That takes 7 of the 12 spots.
The case for the SEC getting 4 teams, however, is much more complicated.
There are five big reasons why the SEC's position is over-inflated. I'll walk through those reasons first, and then walk through a case-by-case discussion of the top teams in the conference.
1) Missouri was highly ranked to start the season. Missouri turned out to not be a good football team. Wins against Mizzou need to be completely reassessed. They barely beat Boston College OOC at home, and in fact were trailing for good portions of that game. They don't have any quality wins in conference and have lost to all of the top teams. They should not be considered a quality win.
2) Oklahoma was highly ranked to start the season. Oklahoma is flat out bad. No quality wins and they barely beat a bad Houston team non-conference. They are not a quality win, at all.
3) Arkansas is .500 in the SEC, but is not a good football team. They lost to winless-in-the-Big-12 OK State. They have one quality win this season, which we are going to get into in a bit...
4) LSU is really not that good. They have a quality win over Ole Miss, but they lost to A&M and Bama. And they lost to USC who is really not good at all. That is a bad loss that should take them out of CFP consideration in coordination with their 3 losses overall.
5) Let's talk about Vandy. They opened the season with an upset over VT, who it turns out is a .500 ACC team. Solid win, not spectacular. Then they upset Bama, which is a really nice win for them. However, they lost to Georgia State, barely beat Ball State, lost to a mid Mizzou team and got drilled by South Carolina. They are certainly better than expected. But they are a .500 SEC team who would be middle of the pack in any of the major conferences. They are a tough team, but not a quality win.
The resume for each of the top SEC teams:
- Tenn - they beat a bad NC State team OOC, lost to Arkansas who isn't good. They have one quality win, at home against Bama. One quality win and one bad loss. If they lose to Georgia, I think the resume is very questionable for their inclusion. And when you watch them play, there are major issues. They don't pass the eye test. I think they have a 50% chance of losing @vandy to close out the season.
- A&M - They have one quality win over LSU, which as stated before, is a good team but not a CFP team. They lost against ND, which is a quality loss, and then lost to South Carolina, which is mid. The Texas game is a knockout game for them - win it and they get another quality win. Lose it and they are out with three losses.
- Texas - Zero quality wins on the season so far. They beat a not good Michigan team OOC, so that doesn't count. They lost against the only decent team they have played, Georgia. They have by far and away the easiest schedule in the SEC. The A&M game is their only chance at a quality win. IMHO, they haven't done enough to get into the CFP if they lose the A&M game - that is a winner-take-all matchup.
- Georgia - Really up and down this year. Only two losses, but they really struggle with the eye test. Quality win against Texas. Not sure if the Clemson win counts as a quality win or not at this point? Lost to Bama and Ole Miss. They have Tenn and a sneaky GT game left on the schedule. I think if they have one more loss, they are out. They have the best case of any 3 loss team if it comes down to that.
- Ole Miss - They are going to be helped by all the metrics, but the resume isn't great. They did nothing OOC, have a bad loss to Kentucky. Quality loss to LSU and then they have a quality win against Georgia. They don't have anyone decent left on the schedule. I think they need to find a way into the SEC championship game.
- Alabama - OOC, they beat a mid Wisconsin team. Not a quality win. Quality wins over Georgia and LSU, which both have their warts. Quality loss to Tenn, and then a mid-loss to Vandy. Easy schedule to close the season. If they suffer an upset for a third loss, they are out. But they are a lock as a 2 loss team.
Now, let's say that SMU runs the table, but loses the ACC Championship game against Miami (if we lose to Clemson, it won't be considered a quality loss, and we will be out) in a close game. How does the SMU resume compare? Lots of decent wins, but no high quality wins, and two close high quality losses.
If Tenn loses to Georgia, it gives them one quality win, one quality loss, and then one bad loss. I think SMU would need BYU to run the table, and Tenn would probably need to look bad against Georgia/Vandy for SMU to be considered here.
If Georgia loses to Tenn, I think it is interesting. They would have 3 quality losses and one quality win. SMU would have 2 quality losses and no quality wins. I think SMU would need Texas to lose to A&M and BYU to win out in order to sneak by Georgia.
If A&M loses to Texas, SMU is ahead of A&M who would have three losses.
If Texas loses to A&M, then both teams have two high quality losses with no quality wins. SMU probably needs BYU to run the table and Georgia to lose another game to take the luster off of that quality loss for Texas. Otherwise, the Texas brand is going to win.
If Ole Miss wins out, they have a bad loss, a quality loss, and a quality win. I think for Ole Miss to pass SMU, they would need BYU to lose and they would need to win (or closely lose) the SEC conference championship game.
In conclusion, I think we are rooting for BYU, TCU, Louisville, Texas, and Tennessee. In that case, Bama is the third SEC to get in, and it is our resume against a 3 loss A&M team, a 3 loss Georgia team, and a 2 loss Ole Miss team. If BYU runs the table, then I think we are in.
Of course, it goes without saying to root against ND every week and root for upsets across the board
. A 2 loss ND team isn't getting in.
When it comes to the CFP, the case of the Big 10 getting 4 teams makes a lot of sense - they have four that have separated themselves out from the rest of the pack, with no bad losses between them (yet).
The Big 12 is a one team conference.
If ND wins out, they are in.
One spot is going to the G5.
That takes 7 of the 12 spots.
The case for the SEC getting 4 teams, however, is much more complicated.
There are five big reasons why the SEC's position is over-inflated. I'll walk through those reasons first, and then walk through a case-by-case discussion of the top teams in the conference.
1) Missouri was highly ranked to start the season. Missouri turned out to not be a good football team. Wins against Mizzou need to be completely reassessed. They barely beat Boston College OOC at home, and in fact were trailing for good portions of that game. They don't have any quality wins in conference and have lost to all of the top teams. They should not be considered a quality win.
2) Oklahoma was highly ranked to start the season. Oklahoma is flat out bad. No quality wins and they barely beat a bad Houston team non-conference. They are not a quality win, at all.
3) Arkansas is .500 in the SEC, but is not a good football team. They lost to winless-in-the-Big-12 OK State. They have one quality win this season, which we are going to get into in a bit...
4) LSU is really not that good. They have a quality win over Ole Miss, but they lost to A&M and Bama. And they lost to USC who is really not good at all. That is a bad loss that should take them out of CFP consideration in coordination with their 3 losses overall.
5) Let's talk about Vandy. They opened the season with an upset over VT, who it turns out is a .500 ACC team. Solid win, not spectacular. Then they upset Bama, which is a really nice win for them. However, they lost to Georgia State, barely beat Ball State, lost to a mid Mizzou team and got drilled by South Carolina. They are certainly better than expected. But they are a .500 SEC team who would be middle of the pack in any of the major conferences. They are a tough team, but not a quality win.
The resume for each of the top SEC teams:
- Tenn - they beat a bad NC State team OOC, lost to Arkansas who isn't good. They have one quality win, at home against Bama. One quality win and one bad loss. If they lose to Georgia, I think the resume is very questionable for their inclusion. And when you watch them play, there are major issues. They don't pass the eye test. I think they have a 50% chance of losing @vandy to close out the season.
- A&M - They have one quality win over LSU, which as stated before, is a good team but not a CFP team. They lost against ND, which is a quality loss, and then lost to South Carolina, which is mid. The Texas game is a knockout game for them - win it and they get another quality win. Lose it and they are out with three losses.
- Texas - Zero quality wins on the season so far. They beat a not good Michigan team OOC, so that doesn't count. They lost against the only decent team they have played, Georgia. They have by far and away the easiest schedule in the SEC. The A&M game is their only chance at a quality win. IMHO, they haven't done enough to get into the CFP if they lose the A&M game - that is a winner-take-all matchup.
- Georgia - Really up and down this year. Only two losses, but they really struggle with the eye test. Quality win against Texas. Not sure if the Clemson win counts as a quality win or not at this point? Lost to Bama and Ole Miss. They have Tenn and a sneaky GT game left on the schedule. I think if they have one more loss, they are out. They have the best case of any 3 loss team if it comes down to that.
- Ole Miss - They are going to be helped by all the metrics, but the resume isn't great. They did nothing OOC, have a bad loss to Kentucky. Quality loss to LSU and then they have a quality win against Georgia. They don't have anyone decent left on the schedule. I think they need to find a way into the SEC championship game.
- Alabama - OOC, they beat a mid Wisconsin team. Not a quality win. Quality wins over Georgia and LSU, which both have their warts. Quality loss to Tenn, and then a mid-loss to Vandy. Easy schedule to close the season. If they suffer an upset for a third loss, they are out. But they are a lock as a 2 loss team.
Now, let's say that SMU runs the table, but loses the ACC Championship game against Miami (if we lose to Clemson, it won't be considered a quality loss, and we will be out) in a close game. How does the SMU resume compare? Lots of decent wins, but no high quality wins, and two close high quality losses.
If Tenn loses to Georgia, it gives them one quality win, one quality loss, and then one bad loss. I think SMU would need BYU to run the table, and Tenn would probably need to look bad against Georgia/Vandy for SMU to be considered here.
If Georgia loses to Tenn, I think it is interesting. They would have 3 quality losses and one quality win. SMU would have 2 quality losses and no quality wins. I think SMU would need Texas to lose to A&M and BYU to win out in order to sneak by Georgia.
If A&M loses to Texas, SMU is ahead of A&M who would have three losses.
If Texas loses to A&M, then both teams have two high quality losses with no quality wins. SMU probably needs BYU to run the table and Georgia to lose another game to take the luster off of that quality loss for Texas. Otherwise, the Texas brand is going to win.
If Ole Miss wins out, they have a bad loss, a quality loss, and a quality win. I think for Ole Miss to pass SMU, they would need BYU to lose and they would need to win (or closely lose) the SEC conference championship game.
In conclusion, I think we are rooting for BYU, TCU, Louisville, Texas, and Tennessee. In that case, Bama is the third SEC to get in, and it is our resume against a 3 loss A&M team, a 3 loss Georgia team, and a 2 loss Ole Miss team. If BYU runs the table, then I think we are in.
Of course, it goes without saying to root against ND every week and root for upsets across the board
. A 2 loss ND team isn't getting in.