W2W4 - BC

[JasonB]

I took the time to watch the BC games against Syracuse and Virginia Tech before writing this... and don't overlook BC, even with the QB change. They are a very physical football team, and if you aren't ready for that grind, they will make you pay for it. They lost a close game at Mizzou and beat Michigan State. They are strong on both sides of the line, they just make too many mistakes on offense and don't have the explosive players to make up for it. Which leads us to the QB change...

I get it, that you look at the stats and think "what the hell?". TC has put up some nice looking numbers this year. But that really doesn't tell the story. TC that we saw last year continuously made plays that kept them in the game and made them competitive. TC this year continuously makes mistakes that kill them. He has 7 fumbles, and they come at the worst times - either in their own redzone or in the opponent's red zone. His Time To Throw is 3.26 seconds, which is crazy high - on film, he doesn't see receivers that are open, he is always waiting for the big play to develop. And he is almost trying to prove he is a pocket passer, staying home - probably to fit in the BOB pro style offense. It leads to 18 sacks on only 67 pressures. His arm strength and accuracy aren't great, so he doesn't complete passes over 10 yards deep to the outside. He panics under pressure; his numbers are awful when he is under pressure. Watching the Syracuse game, first drive, they power run all the way down the field. Moving the ball like clockwork. Then, inside the ten on second down, he decides to pull the ball on an RPO and then slips as he backs up and falls down, which leads to a FG that they miss horribly. Later, he floated a ball late to the outside that could have been a pick 6. Really slow in his progressions. He missed several wide open WR because his throwing mechanics are terrible. And, whether he is banged up or something else, he didn't show the explosiveness in his running game that he showed in our bowl game, both against Syracuse and VT. So, I 100% understand the decision by BOB to replace him as starter. Especially because BOB wants to establish a very physical run game in a pro-style offense that requires a QB to hit the open passes when teams load up against the run. TC has demonstrated that he can't do it. IMHO, BOB made a decision to get him out of the program so that he can recruit a better QB immediately. As long as TC was there, that was going to be impossible.

I will get into the replacement, James, later. But he is a different QB - pocket passer, quicker decisions, more accuracy. Lacks arm strength. But for what they want to do in their offense, he may be an improvement.

SMU RUNNING AGAINST BC

BC runs a 4-2-5, and they play more like Duke where they rely on the DL to do the work rather than blitzing LBs (like Pitt and Louisville did). They have a big, strong, very physical DL, just like what we saw in the bowl game. I know on that day it was hard to get traction with the horrible turf, but they dominated our OL and the game is going to be a challenge on Saturday in the trenches. They have one highly rated DT on PFF (96), and PFF doesn't rate the other DT very highly. That is NOT what I saw on tape. They are strong and have a good rotation in the middle of the line. They have good, strong DEs who are good here as well. The LBs are solid and do what they need to do to make plays. Everyone on the team is physical and hits in the run game. This is a very well coached defense. They expect their DL to control the LOS, so their LBs can stay off the line a bit and run around and make plays. The defense from an analytics perspective is better than what it was in 2023 and 2022, and the main reason for the improvement is their performance in the running game. VT was the only team this year that really ran the ball well against them. The rest had to really grind out yardage or were shut down.

SMU, on the other hand, has shown that they can run the ball on pretty much anyone. The performance of the OL has been awesome. I don't think Bailey will play, we will see, but we are still short on RBs and that worries me, especially with BC being such a physical team. I guess they are really trying to redshirt McFall, but I don't see how that is actually going to happen. Watching the VT game, what they did was to really spread BC out in the running game. They were 3 wide and would split a TE out as well the entire game, and then were able to seal the edge in the running game. The BC LBs are physical, but they aren't really fast, so they are better in the power running game than getting out to the sidelines. Their number 3 is the slot corner, and he is a true slot corner more than a safety.

Again, SMU has been able to run the ball on everyone, and I don't think you can bet against us succeeding in the running game. On top of that, BC hasn't played against anyone in the top 50 in running efficiency (we are 20th). I think SMU will be able to run the ball, but it will be inconsistent. We have to run the ball up the middle to keep them honest, but you are going to see the chunk plays come running behind PJ and Byrd on the edges. I expect a lot of small gains and then the occasional explosive.

SMU PASSING AGAINST BC DEFENSE

On the edge, Ezeinqua number 6 is fantastic. Very dynamic pass rusher with a ton of pressures and sacks. And they line him up on their right a lot, along with a very quick backup (15) they rotate in, so Byrd is going to have his hands full. He struggled in several games with the more athletic pass rushers, and I would anticipate the same on Saturday. The BC pass rush had McCord from Syracuse running for his life a lot of the time (of course, we said the same thing about Pitt, so clearly the Syracuse OL is not anything to write home about). But my eyes will be on Byrd on passing downs, because he has a matchup issue.

In the secondary, their corners are really young, but they are very impressive on tape. They gave up some plays in the Syracuse game, but it required perfect passes from McCord. We are going to need to take some deep shots in order to spread the field out for the running game, but that is where the pass rush will come into play. The matchup I think we have an advantage on is Hibner at TE against the LBs. The corners aren't elite like the Duke corners were, but they are good players.

Louisville had to comeback to squeak out a win against BC. BC held them in check in the first half and then Louisville really opened it up in the passing game in the second to spark the comeback. I would not be surprised at all to see SMU come out throwing the ball to try and open up the field early and then come back to the running game.

BC RUNNING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE

This is where BC has really figured things out. They have an outstanding run blocking OL. They are the ultimate Run The Damn Ball team, where they are killing teams with the OL and then suddenly will decide to pass the ball and screw things up. That all stopped last weekend after they made the QB change - they stuck with the run and pulverized Syracuse at the LOS. What is really interesting to watch is the size and athleticism of the OL group. They pull everyone and run off the edge. When they really got it going against Syracuse, there were plays where they would pull the C, RG, and RT all on a play run to the left and just manhandle Syracuse on that side of the ball. We have not played against a team who runs the ball like that.

This is where we need to watch if Roberts plays, and if he doesn't who the second string DE is going to be. Cam will start, and he does fine against the run on the edge. But if the next one up is Abiara, how does he handle the physicality in that running game?

Against a scheme like this, the two DTs and the backside DE actually become really important. When they right off the left side, for example, the DT on your right side needs to be able to dominate a 1v1 and force a double team. The DT on the left needs to either prevent the C/RG from pulling or they need to have the pursuit speed to catch the RB from the backside. Same with the backside DE - they need to actively chase from the backside. If I am BC, I am trying to pick where JHH/Roberson line up and I am running my pull play off the end to that side. I am going to test if Tank/Lockhart can make a play from the backside DT spot that I am pulling from. When BC ran a pull play against Syracuse, the guard would take out a tackle 1v1, and the OT would take out the DE, so the pulling guard could hammer the LB and create a massive running lane. The DE and DT on the side BC is running to have to win battles to force engagement from the pulling guard so that the LB is free to make the play. Otherwise it is a long day. Luckily, SMU also has a great safety group and BC isn't too much of a passing threat, so they can provide help as well.

As for the running backs, they have a good core of solid running backs who are fast enough and really physical. They churn yards. The exception to the group is the guy who played a big role for the first time last week, number 24 McDonald, who is a transfer from UCF. I don't know why he hasn't been playing, but he is a long, lanky running back that hits the hole very hard and is more explosive than the other backs. Very quick acceleration after the handoff, which doesn't give you much time to penetrate the line. He is definitely someone to keep an eye on.

Again, SMU has been great against the run all season. I'd expect it to continue. But the scheme is awesome to watch, and it could cause us some problem. This is the best OL group we have faced this year, and keep an eye on Roberts' replacement if he can't go.

BC PASSING AGAINST SMU

The new QB, James, is more accurate than TC is, which is going to help them. I expect them to try and establish the run and then move to a lot of play action passing and try to find players open across the middle. That is effectively what they did against Syracuse, where even though James played the entire second half, he was just 5/6 passing. A good amount of the yards and the TD came on a play action pass on 4th and 1 where Syracuse left the receiver uncovered because the safeties and LBs were crashing the line to stop the run.

I don't think he has a ton of arm strength, and I think they will limit the throws to the outside, but will take occasional shots down the field just to try and make something happen and force us off the line. Going back to his time at FIU, the year he played the most in 2022, he was only 9/33 on passes longer than 20 yards, and completed less than 50% of his passes between 10 and 20 yards. Another thing to watch is that he was terrible when pressured... but the BC OL is fantastic, so that is easier said than done. Conley, 67, is their RG and has given up most of their pressures this season, so inside pressure from JHH and Roberson are things to watch. Because James is a pocket passer and doesn't have a strong arm, pressure straight up the middle is going to be a big problem for him.

They have one player at WR that stands out at WR, Bond (number 11). He is a good, athletic player who will lineup both wide and in the slot. Good player, but he isn't that dominant skill position guy that stretches the field. BC just lacks those elite skill guys on the offensive side of the ball that give you trouble and make you game plan for them. Once they add a downfield threat and a QB in the offseason, you can see where this team is going to be an upper tier team in the ACC very quickly, because BOB will be able to pull those guys in. But they aren't there yet.

Most of the passing game is going to go across the middle and not pick on the SMU weakness on defense, our corners. Maybe they will catch us on a playaction at some point in the game, but I think SMU is going to handle the passing game pretty easily. There will absolutely be some opportunities for turnovers, assuming we can pressure him.

PREDICTION

I think BC is the perfect team for us to face defensively. They don't have a mobile QB anymore, they struggle to test the corners, and they are predicated around the running game. They are going to grind out some yardage and move the ball a little, but sustaining drives is going to be a big challenge for them.

When our offense has the ball... I was impressed to see that from an analytics perspective, our offense this year is now actually in front of our offense from both 2022 and 2023. More balance with the running game, but we are the top in the country in terms of play efficiency.

Another thing to note - the BC special teams are awful. They can't kick field goals, the punting is bad. It is terrible, and those lost points and yards are really going to hurt against SMU.

At the end of the day, I think we just have too many playmakers and will generate explosive plays that BC can't match. On top of that, our players are going to be really amped up for this game to make up for the bowl game.

As much as I love the OL and DL for BC, how physically they play, and how much I think they are just a couple of playmakers away on offense, I think SMU will handle them with ease because of our matchups on defense.

SMU 38 - 14

[SmooBoy]

I am wondering how many blitz packages will be lined up for the new QB. Should be fascinating. We CANNOT make another backup QB have their breakout game against us - right?!

[BUS]

Thanks for the write up. What I see out of Vegas is that they agree with your assessment.
Go Mustangs

[Arkpony]

Thanks as always.

[ponyswim]

Thanks Jason. Greatly appreciate it.

[dalpony]

Thanks Jason B - I really enjoy your analysis. Helps me to focus on our opponents a lot better and what to watch for - thanks again

[MV pony]

Thanks Jason B - I really enjoy your analysis. Helps me to focus on our opponents a lot better and what to watch for - thanks again

Ditto

[JasonB]

With Roberts now officially out... that is a big deal. He is a 3rd round draft pick who is very physical on the edge and while he gets attention because of his pressures, he plays the run very well. It is kind of like losing our Demarcus Lawrence. I would expect BC to go after Cam and his backup (Abiarra maybe) pretty frequently and pull to run off tackle on that side of the field. BOB is the type of coach that will find a mismatch and pick the scab over and over until you have to adjust, and then hit you with the playaction. Just something to keep an eye on if SMU can hold up on that edge early in the game.

[fan]

With Roberts now officially out... that is a big deal. He is a 3rd round draft pick who is very physical on the edge and while he gets attention because of his pressures, he plays the run very well. It is kind of like losing our Demarcus Lawrence. I would expect BC to go after Cam and his backup (Abiarra maybe) pretty frequently and pull to run off tackle on that side of the field. BOB is the type of coach that will find a mismatch and pick the scab over and over until you have to adjust, and then hit you with the playaction. Just something to keep an eye on if SMU can hold up on that edge early in the game.

Well... this observation seems to have been correct.