PonyFans.com

By Pete Fiutak
Here we go with the first of several ASK CFN - Preview Style editions with your specific questions about the can't-get-here-soon-enough 2004 season.

Who are the top five "TCU"s going to be this year? I mean the teams that'll be in the top 10-20 all year with a gaudy record and a cheesy schedule, but not actually be all that great. Essentially, what are the five most overrated teams going to be? - R.H., Boston

A: Ah, the eternal argument: Is a team ranked where its ranked because it's that good, or is it ranked that high because of its schedule and mindless voters that simply look at won-loss records? I'm not saying these five teams aren't going to be good, but I'm saying they'll probably not be as talented as their ranking will be thanks to their average slates of games.
1) West Virginia - My choice for the deepest Orange Bowl sleeper, the Mountaineers, considering their Big East success over the last few years, are playing what amounts to a two game schedule hosting Maryland and going to Virginia Tech. The Terps are notoriously slow starters, and they'll still have kinks to work out in mid-September. Tech won't be very good.
2) California - Call me skeptical. Cal still doesn't have a defense and will have to deal with something it hasn't had over the last few years; expectations. The Bears will be everyone's hot preseason pick (remember Arizona State last year?), but will fall at least once early with road games at Southern Miss, Oregon State and USC.
3) Oregon - I tried to tell everyone last year that TCU was average, and no one listened. This year, Oregon is going to be my constant battle as the Ducks will be ranked in several top 20s and have a gaudy record, and won't be anywhere near that good. They'll get blasted at Oklahoma early, and then go on a good run not playing USC and getting Arizona State and Washington at home.
4) Toledo - The media will be looking for the next Miami University and will think Toledo is it after what's sure to be a 7-1 start (6-2 at worst). This is a good team, but it's not last year's RedHawks. Marshall is going to be the best team in the league.
5) Virginia Tech - I'll be fascinated to see where the Hokies will be ranked in the preseason. I already know of a few preseason publications that'll have them in the top 25, but talent-wise, this team is a shadow of its former self and really not all that good (at least not going into the season). After getting destroyed by USC, they have a good schedule not playing a brutal road game until December 4th at Miami.

Your nominations?

One needs to consider Texas in that lineup. Last year Texas gets soundly whipped by Arkansas and Blown out with a capital B by Oklahoma.

There is something about the Big 12 and the BCS system that consistantly over ranks Big 12 Teams. Every other year a Big 12 team gets blown out in its Championship game and yets gets to play for the National championship. Name any other conference so favored?

I think if not next year then soon A&M will fall into that category. They'll win some games over big 'names,' but names having bad years. Remember when TCU "arrived on the scene?" They beat USC...everyone seemed to conveniently forget that it was a five-loss USC team having a down year. I remember the first time when they were on their way to being undefeated...only to be shocked back into reality with a loss to San Jose State.

A&M will do the same. Maybe not-I could be wrong.

So suddenly everyone in the Big12 will be on Baylor status and A&M will end up playing a "soft" schedule??? Your nuts! A&M's SoS last year was one of the toughest in the nation... If by some MIRACLE they have a 10 win season they deserve the hype... Here's hopeing SMU just wins a game this year!!!

The next TCU may very well be TCU. After playing us and Northwestern they go on the road to Texas Tech (a team that is rebuilding this year), after that they get the CUSA teams which are very beatable. They could easily go undefeated this year. I just hope we surprise them.

We have a better chance of beating TCU at their place then TCU has of beating Tech in Lubbock. Even a "rebuilding" tech will dismantle TCU when they play in Lubbock - in Ft Worth it might be different, but Tech is almost impossible to beat at home.

I liked the comment about Marshall being the best in the league. Good to know they are not dropping off on their way to the CUSA.

Re: Tech rebuilding .... what did they lose besides B.J. Symons and Carlos Francis?

And no, RR, I don't think everyone in the Big 12 will be on Baylor High status, but I will agree that Texas will roll up big numbers (stats and wins) before getting thumped .... again .... by a few teams. And the Longhorn faithful will continue to tout Mack February as a great coach.

When are people going to respect Mike Leach's ability as a mad scientist. Every year Tech is ranked by leading publications around 60 or 70 and each year they have a solid season almost breaking into the top 25. I don't know how they do it, but they do with players almost nobody has heard of. The Tech administration must be taking note giving Leach a big raise and contract extension. Personally, I think that might have been a little premature.

As for the TCU's of 2004 I like Houston and Utah for that honor, and throw in West Virginia too.