Fresmen All-American Recruiting rankings

[Grider]

OK so I was bored. I looked at two different Freshman All-American teams, and out of curiosity, checked their rivals ratings. Here's the breakdown by stars:

American Football Writers Association
http://www.sportswriters.net/fwaa/news/2005/allamerica060104.html

Offense:
5--1
4--1
3--5
2--3
1--0
Not found on rivals--2

Defense:
5--2
4--2
3--3
2--4
1--0
Not found in rivals--1


Rivals Freshman All-American Team:
http://oregon.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=484758
Offense:
1st team
5--1
4--2
3--5
2--2
1--0
Not found in rivals--1
2nd team
5--1
4--1
3--4
2--5
1--0

Defense:
1st team
5--2
4--2
3--4
2--3
1--0

2nd team
5--1
4--1
3--3
2--5
1--0
Not found in rivals -- 1

Totals
5--8
4--9
3--24
2--22
1--0
Not found in rivals--5

Anyone want to comment on this?

[McClown27]

Anyone want to comment on this?

The reason there aren't more 4 and 5 star plaayers on Freshmen All-American lists is because they go to the best schools. When you go to Miami, it is less likely you will walk in and start.

Interesting work Grider!

[MustangIcon]

Recruiting is by no means an exact science. There are SO many players to scout, how can a team possibly see them all while at the same time preparing for games in the season. Sometimes a guy will be overlooked, be a 2 star, but be an absolute stud. I think a lot of times guys get poor ratings bc of their size/speed combo, when the fact of the matter is they just flat out know how to play football.

On the other hand.... it all depends on getting in the right situation. I did not look at this list but say I am a 2 star running back recruit who signed with some powerhouse program who has a stud starting tailback and very good backup but otherwise thin at that position. The stud gets injured, his backup falls out of favor wiuth coaches for fumble problems and all the sudden I am the starting tailback on a top 15 team in the country. I have an unbelievable line, I have a great QB, excellent coaching, etc etc. Then all the sudden I am an absolute stud because I happened to get in the right situation. Not to say I am better than some 5 star guy that signed with USC that was burried behind 2 all american RBs, but my situation was far better and gave me the opportunity to showcase my skills.

This also leads me to another point. Alot of top top recruits sit the bench till they are Juniors. If I sign with Texas as a 4 star O lineman, I have to know they have 3-4 classes of 4 star O-lineman already on the roster. I am going to sit the bench. Look at LSU right now. Jamarcus Randall starting QB that led his team all season to a BCS bowl game. Injured for the game and replaced by some Freshman QB whose name escapes me who absolutey tears it up. So they have 2 very qualified starting QBs next season PLUS Ryan Perilleaux (one of the top QBs in the country last recruiting period) who will be a redshirt freshman. So next year when Justin Willis has a good season and is CUSA all freshman team will we be able to say oh wow our 3 star guy is way better than top QB prospect Perilleaux from the same recruiting class? I would say no bc Perilleaux won't have had his chance to shine. Just an example to make the point of how I think kids are crazy to go to such loaded systems sometimes where they may never even see the field.

[McClown27]

Hypothetical: If we signed the players UT signed this year, how many would start for us?

I would guess at least 8, maybe 12.

[Stallion]

Its an optical illusion. Apparently you assume that there are equal numbers of 5, 4, 3 and 2 star players. There are only 38 5 star players most of which played on teams full of great players and so did not get the playing time necessary to be an All-American. In 2006 there were 38 5 stars, 12 pages at 30 per page of 4 stars(about 360 players), 30 pages of 3 stars (or about 900), 80 pages of 2 stars(or about 2,400 players). So using your own totals, 41 out of the 63 points earned in your calculations came from the Top 1/3rd of the Players. Approximately, 12.5% of the points came from the Top 1% of the Class. Approximately 27% of the points came from the Top 10% of the class. Plus there is a big difference between a high 2 star who received 6-7 offers including BCS offers and for example the large number of Division 1A sleepers that, for example, SMU signed. A final point is that 7 of your players who were rated below 3 stars on the Rivals list on either the first or second team were two Two Punters, a Kicker, Kick Return Specialist, an All Purpose Specialist, Two Punt Return Specialists which deceptively skews the numbers to an incredible degree. Of course, Freshman All-Americans is a stats game anyway awarding many players on mediocre teams who were forced to play Freshman early.

[Stallion]

of the Players making the First Team Rivals list on actual Offensive or Defensive Positions on the Field the numbers are as follows:

3 Five Stars
4 Four Stars
9 Three Stars
4 Two Stars
2 Unknown

the players who were 2 stars players ALL signed with BCS schools A&M, Louisville, UCLA, Oregon. The "Unkown" players signed with BCS school Kansas and Hawaii and since they weren't even in the Rivals Database were more than likely late qualifiers or at least late signees since Rivals would have included them if they signed in the regular signing period. The lone non-BCS Freshman All-American was a WR who played in Hawaii's pass happy offense. In conclusion, 16 out of the 20 known rated players or 80% came from about the the Top 1/3 or so of the players. Even more enlightening which is how I look at a recruiting class, 100% of the known rated players were either 3 star or higher or a BCS level school. Thanks for helping to make my point-Recruiting matters.

[Grider]

Its an optical illusion. Apparently you assume that there are equal numbers of 5, 4, 3 and 2 star players. There are only 38 5 star players most of which played on teams full of great players and so did not get the playing time necessary to be an All-American. In 2006 there were 38 5 stars, 12 pages at 30 per page of 4 stars(about 360 players), 30 pages of 3 stars (or about 900), 80 pages of 2 stars(or about 2,400 players). So using your own totals, 41 out of the 63 points earned in your calculations came from the Top 1/3rd of the Players. Approximately, 12.5% of the points came from the Top 1% of the Class. Approximately 27% of the points came from the Top 10% of the class. Plus there is a big difference between a high 2 star who received 6-7 offers including BCS offers and for example the large number of Division 1A sleepers that, for example, SMU signed. A final point is that 3 of your players who were rated below 3 stars on the Rivals list were a Punter, Kick Return Specialist and Punt Return Specialist which deceptively skews the numbers. Of course, Freshman All-Americans is a stats game anyway awarding many players on mediocre teams who were forced to play Freshman early.

I didn't include special teams, and I didn't assume anything. I just thought it was interesting. I figured that about the freshmen in big programs sitting behind other studs. The main reason I did the freshmen all-american was because it was harder to find everybody on Rivals for the all-american team. I could only go back to 2002's recruiting class to search for players.

[Grider]

of the Players making the First Team Rivals list on actual Offensive or Defensive Positions on the Field the numbers are as follows:

3 Five Stars
4 Four Stars
9 Three Stars
4 Two Stars
2 Unknown

the players who were 2 stars players ALL signed with BCS schools A&M, Louisville, UCLA, Oregon. The "Unkown" players signed with BCS school Kansas and Hawaii and since they weren't even in the Rivals Database were more than likely late qualifiers or at least late signees since Rivals would have included them if they signed in the regular signing period. The lone non-BCS Freshman All-American was a WR who played in Hawaii's pass happy offense. In conclusion, 16 out of the 20 known rated players or 80% came from about the the Top 1/3 or so of the players. Even more enlightening which is how I look at a recruiting class, 100% of the known rated players were either 3 star or higher or a BCS level school. Thanks for helping to make my point-Recruiting matters.

I only had one unknown for the first team, that was Bess for Hawaii. That guy from Kansas was a two star if you go to their commits for the year he came out of HS.
I guess I don't get what your trying to say in your last point. Anyway, I'm not trying to argue, just posting what I found.
I was surprised to see that many 2 stars.

[Stallion]

Ok the story on the Kansas DB had no star rating so I did go back to the 2004 Kansas recruiting class (he was a Freshman redshirt last year)and he was listed as a two star-a pretty highly recruited star including offers from Kansas, Arizona, Baylor, Wyoming and Tulsa-so the new count is 21 out of 21 known position players or 100% on the First Team Freshmen All American team were either at least a 3 star or signed with a BCS school.

[Stallion]

OK I finally found the elusive WR Davone Bess who fits nicely within my category better known as "Cutting Corners". It appears he was difficult to locate because he was holed up for 15 months in a juvenile detention "ranch" after being convicted as an Accessory for Possession of Stolen Goods.

[abezontar]

Was he digging holes?