Rivals /NFL Draft Analysis

[Stallion]

the numbers speak for themselves:

First Round: 5 (5 Stars) 17 (4 Stars) 7 (3 Stars) 2 (2 Stars)=32

Second Round: 3 (5 Stars) 10 (4 Stars) 11( 3 Stars) 6 (2 Stars)

Third Round: 2 (5 Stars) 6 (4 Stars) 18 (3 Stars) 7 (2 Stars)

In summary, 79% of the Top 100 Draftees were at least 3 Stars, 16% were 2 stars and 5 were not in the Database. It is also interesting to note that about half of those 2 stars were nationally ranked by Rivals at their positions so they were high 2 stars. A high percentage of these 2 stars attended schools known for taking academic risks and non-qualifiers such Hawaii(2), Fresno (2), UTEP, NMSU, SJSU, Boise, Illinois St. one kid Jacobi Jones never made it to Baylor and went to Lane College. etc. The players who didn't even appear in the Rivals database very likely also affected by academic issues.

35 out of the First 64 players(Rounds 1 & 2) (55%) were 5 stars or 4 Stars and incredible number since there aren't many 5 Stars or 4 Stars and they make up only a small fraction of Division 1A players. BTW if Young, Ernie Sims and Bush and others had not turned pro early that number would easily be over 60%. 53 out of the First 64 players were 5, 4 or 3 stars which is something like 83% another incredible number. Again number would be close to 90% if players had not turned pro early. I'd say Rivals may do a better job of projecting 18 years olds than the NFL Draft experts and that's 1-2 years BEFORE they get into a college training program.

Oh those 3 First Round kids which Rivals missed on were Jamal Anderson from Arkansas who went from 6-6, 205 in high school to 6-6, 280 in college, Amobi Okoye who was signed by Louisville as a 15 year old and is only 19 right now and a TE from Central Michigan who put on about 65 pounds and moved from TE to the OLM-Rivals can hardly be questioned for missing on those types of kids.

Final Rivals Grade: A

[PhirePhilBennett]

What percentage of 5 stars out of high school got drafted in the first 3 rounds?

[Stallion]

40% in this years draft-over 50% if you throw in the the players who turned pro early.

[MustangIcon]

Interesting stuff. Thanks for providing that info.

[Stallion]

This article should be labeled "BCS Has Stranglehold Over Top National Talent". The most important point that should have been made but wasn't is that Rivals and recruiting services are so much more accurate these days based partly on scouting combines and better evaluation by the recruiting services(ie better connections with college coaches) that the BCS schools success rate is much better than the 1970s-1980s when recruiting of high school players was much more difficult to predict. Players these days who don't come out of BCS schools are likely to have had academic issues, transferred out of BCS schools or had unusual physical growth and development during their college career that was hard to predict at age 17. The non-BCS schools have truly been turned into the minor leagues of college football. This is a self-fulfilling prophesy and articles like this which expose the truth will just make matters worse.


Want to get drafted? Big-name schools are the ticket

By Pat Forde
ESPN.com

Congratulations and condolences to Joe Staley of Central Michigan.

He is part standard-bearer for small-time football, part Mr. Irrelevant.

Staley, an offensive tackle, was the 28th selection in the National Football League draft Saturday.

That made him the first player outside the big six conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, SEC) or Notre Dame to be drafted in 2007. That's a point of pride.

Being selected 28th also made Staley the lowest first selection from outside the college game's power elite since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970. That's a point of concern for everyone who doesn't have an automatic spot at the BCS money trough.

After the free-flowing festival of projection and prognostication all weekend, here's the one hard-and-fast fact to come out of this draft: The NFL has never been less interested in spending top dollar on low-profile football players from low-profile programs than it is right now.

The old NFL saying is, "If you can play, we'll find you." Well, either the collegians outside the BCS conferences cannot play, or the league is no longer trying as hard to find them. Because the trend is to use top picks on the glamour boys from the glamour teams in the glamour conferences.

Last April it took 27 picks to get a non-BCS draftee: Memphis running back DeAngelo Williams. That was the record -- until this year, when Staley slipped one slot lower.

If you want to know how much things have changed, consider this:

Every year in the 1970s, at least one top-10 pick was used on a player who fit the definition of a {WORD BANNED}, low-major or minor-level college player. That included three overall No. 1 picks: Terry Bradshaw of Louisiana Tech, John Matuszak of Tampa and Ed "Too Tall" Jones of Tennessee State.

In the here and now, only one non-BCS conference player has been selected in the top 10 in the past four years: quarterback Alex Smith, who went No. 1 in 2005 -- and whose Utah team ultimately wound up crashing a BCS bowl game. (Calling Urban Meyer's undefeated Utes a {WORD BANNED} is really a misnomer.)

Only two non-quarterbacks from non-BCS schools have been Top 10 picks this decade, and both of those were so obvious that I'm guessing even Matt Millen could see it: LaDainian Tomlinson of TCU in 2001 and Brian Urlacher of New Mexico in 2000.

There were 26 Top 10 picks from low-profile schools in the 1970s, including guys named Walter Payton (Jackson State) and Phil Simms (Morehead State). There have been six such picks in the past 12 years.

A few theories about this trend:

• Parity is overrated. The biggest schools get the best players, now more than ever. The power programs are either scouting better, or admissions are looser, or players are simply saying no more often to the local small schools in favor of the big-time programs that play on TV and pack huge stadiums and put on jam-packed testing days for NFL scouts.

Whatever the reason, the field is tilted all the more to the power schools in the power conferences. Which makes things like Boise State going 13-0 and winning the Fiesta Bowl all the more amazing.

• Scholarship limits haven't done jack to spread the wealth. Next time a coach trots out the 85-scholarship limit to either pump up a chump opponent or explain a loss to a chump opponent, here's the proof that refutes it. Back when schools were giving out 100 scholarships, small schools were pulling in and developing more first-round talent than they are today.

• The slow decline of football at historically black colleges and universities is more evident than ever. Back when college campuses were less integrated, the first round was dotted with African-American stars from Grambling, Jackson State, Alcorn State, North Carolina A&T and so on. But there hasn't been an HBCU first-rounder since 2000. Clearly, the best African-American athletes no longer look to the HBCUs as a place of either first or last resort.

• Conference expansion must be considered. Two years ago, Amobi Okoye would have been a non-BCS draftee out of Louisville. Today he's a Big East draftee. But realignment only changes the status of a single first-round pick over the past two years.

Of course, it should be noted that there still were 69 players picked from outside the BCS teams, as opposed to 186 picks on players from the 66 teams who form college football's "in" crowd. You still had guys from Lane, Brown, Towson State and Wingate being picked -- just none of them very high.

And it's true that some of this could simply be cyclical. Next fall, for example, we're looking at a Heisman Trophy race that features two Western Athletic Conference players: Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan and Boise State running back Ian Johnson. If Johnson, a rising junior, joins senior-to-be Brennan in the 2008 draft, that potentially could turn the first round into a WAC attack.

But in terms of talent procurement, the numbers show that the rich are still getting richer in college football. And don't think the next generation of players doesn't notice.

The path to the first round is straighter and narrower than ever. For better or worse, it rarely detours through the smaller schools anymore.

Pat Forde is a senior writer for ESPN.com. He can be reached at [email protected].


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Hey Dutch, I brought my skates!

[Nacho]

Interesting but only confirms what we already suspected. This has been in the making for a long time. Non-BCS schools are now in fact the minor leagues of D-1. We soley exist to give BCS schools nonconference games. That is our usefulnes to them. When was the last time a 4 or 5 star player signed out of hs to play football in C-USA, the WAC or MWC? I'm sure it's happened but the numbers must be awfully low. It's kind of funny that a school like SMU which in so many respects sees itself as elite is considered by the football powers as second rate and not worthy of sitting at the same table with them.

[smupony94]

Maybe when we can beat UNT they will respect us

[EastStang]

The other interesting stat, that I'd love to see is how many first, second and third round picks are still in the NFL after 2, 3, and 5 years. There have been some huge busts in the first round. And there have been some huge success stories from the first round. Players who fell ended up having great careers while others chosen high struggled. I still haven't forgiven the Redskins for Desmond Howard or for the QB from Tennessee. And Carlos Rogers is not giving me a warm fuzzy feeling.

[PonyKai]

Well since 2002, TCU has attracted 6 four star prospects. SMU has attracted zero, Boise State has attracted 1 and UT has attracted only 16...in their 2007 class alone. Yeah your argument sounds about right.

[Nacho]

ES I can't answer your question but the average NFL careeer is 4 years. Hopefully these guys have gone to class and are ready for the real world. Counting on the NFL to fund the rest of your life is not good financial planning.

[Cadillac]

Since 2002, I've only found 2 5 star recruits going to the dregs. Both to BYU (a higher calling perhaps?).

But a number of 4 stars do wind up out in the sewers with the rest of us. That doesn't take away from the point of the article though, If nothing else it seems to confirm that there are two Division 1s. BSC and the rest of us. 4 Star recruits are functionally 5 stars for Non-BCS schools.

For the life of me, I can't figure out why anyone who had a real sniff of being an NFL player would ever come to SMU. It's almost like trying to field an NFL team without ever having any 1st day draft picks.

-CoS

[mrydel]

But a number of 4 stars do wind up out in the sewers with the rest of us. That doesn't take away from the point of the article though, If nothing else it seems to confirm that there are two Division 1s. BSC and the rest of us. 4 Star recruits are functionally 5 stars for Non-BCS schools. -CoS

Thus my annual statement that IF parity or equality or fairness was wanted by the NCAA, they would alter the rules to allow BCS transfers to mid majors not have to sit out a year. This would allow mid majors a 2nd shot at good athletes who find themselves overstocked on a BCS team and want to get true playing time. I know that the big boys that control the NCAA would oppose this but I really do not see why. If a player is not going to get time at a school, they should be given the opportunity to transfer without sitting out. They can go to a Div 1AA so why not a mid major. We have taken over the Div1AA position.

[Nacho]

They don't come to SMU. Even Justin Rodgers was a 200 pound DE when he came to SMU--not exactly NFL standard. Real pro prospects haven't come to SMU in a long time. We get an occasional player drafted but once every 3-4 years is not the big time. Not only is the playing field not level it is not even on the same planet. That's not to say we can't enjoy our team but we have to realize that when we play a BCS school we are playing an entirely different entity.

[PonyKai]

We do, for now at least.

[Nacho]

What do you see that I am missing?