Percentages of All-Americans by star levels
Posted: Mon Mar 17, 2008 5:43 pmhttp://www.sundaymorningqb.com/story/2008/3/17/71811/4082
I've seen the stats discussed here about how there are more All-Americans who were rated 3-star or lower out of high school, and the counter argument about how there are more players at the lower levels. I was glad that the website actually ran the numbers and was interested in what the results had to say.
Odds of Becoming All-America by Star Level Ranks (using Rivals):
Overall chances ignoring all star ratings: 1 in 59 players will make All-America
Five-Star: 1 in 9 players
Four-Star: 1 in 27 players
Three-Star: 1 in 50 players
Two-Star or Lower: 1 in 102
I've seen the stats discussed here about how there are more All-Americans who were rated 3-star or lower out of high school, and the counter argument about how there are more players at the lower levels. I was glad that the website actually ran the numbers and was interested in what the results had to say.
Odds of Becoming All-America by Star Level Ranks (using Rivals):
Overall chances ignoring all star ratings: 1 in 59 players will make All-America
Five-Star: 1 in 9 players
Four-Star: 1 in 27 players
Three-Star: 1 in 50 players
Two-Star or Lower: 1 in 102
Five-star prospects were about three times as likely to earn an all-America vote than four-star prospects, five-and-a-half times as likely as a three-star prospect, eleven times as likely as a one, two or zero-star prospect. If the setting was 'random; – if the rankings were worthless – every level would show roughly the same 1 in 59 odds of producing an all-American. Three, four and five-star prospects all fared better than that, the top two much better than that. Zero, one and two-stars were not close. If you pay attention to the distribution of the star rankings, the results are nothing like a bell curve. They look like this:
Which is basically what Peter (and the recruiting services) predicted. I.e., common sense. Boring, I know.
But if one of the measures of the "sole purpose" of the guru rankings is their ability to "show a much greater percentage of 5-star recruits making the All-America team than 0-stars," then those rankings succeeded wildly. For predictive purposes, they are generally what they say they are.