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The last couple of weeks I have seen a few post about how many scholarship we dont have to offer, but a check of the 2004 -2007 classes shows the following. SMU signed 84 recruits but 40 of those are no longer on the new roster that came out a short while ago or a 47 % loss rate, of the total input seven were from jc to include the qb from Snow JC that only played one year. In some year not all reported in for their freshman year. The junior year seems to be a big loser year. Yes SMU has picked up a few transfers and a few walkons, but it looks like the coaches recruit for what they know will happen.

ozfan wrote: Yes SMU has picked up a few transfers and a few walkons, but it looks like the coaches recruit for what they know will happen.

Just curious, can you explain what you mean in the above. Not trying to pick on you or even disagree, just unclear as to what you are trying to say.

HFvictory wrote:

ozfan wrote: Yes SMU has picked up a few transfers and a few walkons, but it looks like the coaches recruit for what they know will happen.

Just curious, can you explain what you mean in the above. Not trying to pick on you or even disagree, just unclear as to what you are trying to say.

I think he’s saying that the coaching staff is recruiting based on the attrition model he is outlining. That there is an attrition spike in the Junior year, so they are trying to project the needs for a team that loses nearly half of those recruited, with special consideration for those becoming Jrs.

What does it mean? If I had a roster that auto-sorted by experience, I might be able to say. Of course our Ozfan may have been coming from a completely different angle, I have no idea

-CoS

of course many "Juniors" are really 4th year players after redshirting and a coaching staff has discretion on whether the player should get that 5th year. Some also simply grafduate and move on.

Cadillac wrote:I think he’s saying that the coaching staff is recruiting based on the attrition model he is outlining. That there is an attrition spike in the Junior year, so they are trying to project the needs for a team that loses nearly half of those recruited, with special consideration for those becoming Jrs.

What does it mean? If I had a roster that auto-sorted by experience, I might be able to say. Of course our Ozfan may have been coming from a completely different angle, I have no idea

-CoS

Thanks. I don't think coaches need to look at projected attrition rates, etc because of the scholarship limits in place (85/25). I don't know the roster as well as many here so at a quick glance I am not sure who is scholly and who is a walk-on, but from what I can fgure out offhand it looks like going into this class there were 3 or 4 slots available under the 85 rule and 14 graduating SRs on ship so my guess is a class of 17 or 18. Again I may be off a few if some I counted as walk-ons were given scholarships or some I thought were on scholly were actually walk-ons, etc.

Attrition rates don't really matter if you are up against limits anyway. You can't fill 25 slots you think you'll lose the JR if you only have 17 available.

Basically coaches look at how many avaible slots and position needs (projected 3 deep) first and then rate each need as crucial, etc based upon experience/skill level in the depth chart, etc.

As noted having a lot of red shirts means getting more experienced players on the field but also means you have a kid taking up a slot for 5 years insted of 4. If you RS the majority of players and have low attrition you will always be coming up short of the 25 limit. With high attrition obviously you get closer to the 25 (well duh). If kids are falling off the JR RS year not a lot you can plan for because you basically have 3 classes in place behind them (incoming FR, RS FR and RS sophs) using a majority of the slots.

What I was trying to point out is the recruiting numbers game a coach has to play. He must take both the scholarship limit and failure/dropout/
tranfer in a huff rate into consideration. SMU has a higher turnover than say a state school.
A good recruiting coach always keeps a couple of spare scholarships onhand for just incase. I would say SMU has 17/18 ships in hand Jones
will most likely use 15

If we are figuring we have 17 or 18 scholies open then I would expect us to sign between 22 or 23 kids. Fact is that JJ knows the situation better than us and can probably gauge what rs JR or SR are gonna graduate. Or who will transfer. Or who he simply won't renew the scholie for.

We could sign and place kids, grey shirt kids, or we might get a couple of players to enroll early so they count against this year (Do we have room?).

Every school over signs and let's natural attrition take care of the numbers.