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Decoding Nick Saban's surprising diatribe in defense of oversigning

but wait - didnt USC just sign 33?

gostangs wrote:but wait - didnt USC just sign 33?

Yes but USC was short scholies for 2010 so just applied those oversignees to the 2010 shortage.

Not the same thing Saban is doing at all!

Hmmmmmm - rationalization maybe?? USC does everything all the other big programs do - and more, according to the NCAA.

We get that some players will inevitably run into academic or disciplinary troubles, and that a coach is well within his rights to cut such players loose. What we don't get is how Saban is magically able to project exactly how many such players will run amok each year so he knows how many scholarships he can afford to give out to recruits.

Give me a break. I don't like Saban very much at all, but this is the EXACT same thing that colleges do with regular admissions. Every year, a school like SMU can project that they have, say, 1,000 students graduating and 300 who will fail out or transfer (roundabout numbers that fit a trend - obviously they won't have exact numbers). They then project that, say, 25% of those who get offers of admission will come. Therefore, they will give out 5,200 offers of admission in order to exactly replace those that leave (through whatever means).

Running a football team, you can be much more exact about it, simply because there are fewer players. You have an idea of which players are going to class and which are skipping because you track that sort of thing. You know which players are on the borderline academically, which are doing fine, and which ones can't cut the butter. You know which ones can be troublemakers because you observe their behavior every day.

I'm not an experienced football coach and even I think I could get close enough to the attrition number - by pure observation - in order to know how many scholarships to offer (within 1 or 2...and if not as many leave, that's what a grayshirt is for).

This is a weak attack on a man that probably has done a lot worse than oversigned and grayshirted.

CalallenStang wrote:

We get that some players will inevitably run into academic or disciplinary troubles, and that a coach is well within his rights to cut such players loose. What we don't get is how Saban is magically able to project exactly how many such players will run amok each year so he knows how many scholarships he can afford to give out to recruits.

Give me a break. I don't like Saban very much at all, but this is the EXACT same thing that colleges do with regular admissions. Every year, a school like SMU can project that they have, say, 1,000 students graduating and 300 who will fail out or transfer (roundabout numbers that fit a trend - obviously they won't have exact numbers). They then project that, say, 25% of those who get offers of admission will come. Therefore, they will give out 5,200 offers of admission in order to exactly replace those that leave (through whatever means).

Running a football team, you can be much more exact about it, simply because there are fewer players. You have an idea of which players are going to class and which are skipping because you track that sort of thing. You know which players are on the borderline academically, which are doing fine, and which ones can't cut the butter. You know which ones can be troublemakers because you observe their behavior every day.

I'm not an experienced football coach and even I think I could get close enough to the attrition number - by pure observation - in order to know how many scholarships to offer (within 1 or 2...and if not as many leave, that's what a grayshirt is for).

This is a weak attack on a man that probably has done a lot worse than oversigned and grayshirted.

This is absured. Offering addmission to students is a completely different. All students given an admissions letter can enroll inthe fall if they wish and smu must accomidate them. Offering more than you hope to take understandingthat some will turn you down is fine because the student makes the choice. What Saban does is over promise and when a kid doesn't rise on the depth chart he is told to fake an injury to get him off the team and some fresh meat in there. This is unethical for 2 reasons. First, it is denying a kid a chance to play colliegate football, taking a hardship deferal means you can never play any other NCAA sport at any other school. Second it is a process designed to skirt the rules of the limits of scholarships, if Saban did not do this these kids would likely play somewhere elese and maybe make him pay on the field. Also greyshirting is completely sketchy, imagine going to school under a promise of a scholarship and being told it isn't available it would be like enrol;ling as a student and being told you can't register for classes for a whole year but please pay tuition absured. The NCAA should have a strict rule on on how many players can sign in a class and give waivers for confirmed (independent audit) for catastrophic injury, or ineligibility

I joined my son in 1995 and attended the SMU summer orientation conferences prior to his fall enrollment. At that time one of the faculty speakers advised all parents that the national stastics for all colleges were that 45% of all freshmen would leave their initial college within 3 semesters of enrolling for every possible reason. This was a stastic that was readily accepted and utilized by the SMU Admissions Office and that parents should be aware and understand this fact as they would have a high probability of dealing with this issue.