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There's more to the story about Rivals inflated numbers in the 2010-2012 period-I've never noticed this and never heard anyone comment on it. Here are the Rivals 3+ stars in Texas and Florida from 2010-2016:

2010 Texas 288 Florida 243

2011-Texas 271 Florida 243

2012 Texas 273 Florida 254

2013 Florida 218 Texas 197

2014 Florida 195 Texas 152

2015 Florida 191 Texas 162

2016 Florida 207 Texas 147



This is a bunch of crap

Wow - there is something going on behind the numbers on that. Is rivals based in Florida? Key people in Florida? I know Florida is a recruiting hot bed also - but more than Texas seems impossible, especially for three years running.

Actually looks about right. They probably have more P5 offers as well. Looking at FSU, UF, UCF, Georgia and a lot of other schools that go into Florida it seems they have a lot more mid level talent with higher ceilings of potential. Texas may have better quality at the top 4 and 5 star level though.

But look at the demographics. Correct me if you have data otherwise, but conventional wisdom says hispanics are not as in to football as southern whites and blacks. So if you exclude them from the population numbers:

Florida 20 mil x 72% white&black = 14.4 mil core demographic.
Texas 25 mil x 56% = 14 mil core demographic.

So then consider that proximity to the huge hispanic majority population in many areas will get more non-hispanics into other sports due to reduced football dominance. The numbers make sense.

The only data I can find in support of Rivals' allocation of 3 stars is this chart from 2014:

http://vype.com/nationalhsfootball/2014 ... gning-day/

Florida appears to produce almost the same number of D1 signees as Texas, while only having a fifth of the number of high school players.

There's no doubt that Texas has produced more Division 1A signees each and every year in recorded history. See Texas Football every year that accurately counts them up. The argument is whether Texas or Florida produce more top college talent and Florida supporters usually make an imperfect analogy to NFL players. California comes into play when you throw in its massive JUCO/CC educational system which dwarfs all other states.

GreenbeltPony wrote:The only data I can find in support of Rivals' allocation of 3 stars is this chart from 2014:

http://vype.com/nationalhsfootball/2014 ... gning-day/

Florida appears to produce almost the same number of D1 signees as Texas, while only having a fifth of the number of high school players.

I remember driving to a friends house to watch the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. 30 minutes before kick-off, drove by a park that had some 50 hispanics playing soccer and having a big party. Not factoring in race (i.e. hispanic population & in CA asian as well) skews those numbers.

Having said that, over the past 3 years, FL has some 30% more 3*'s than Texas?, I'm not buying that.

SoCal_Pony wrote:

GreenbeltPony wrote:The only data I can find in support of Rivals' allocation of 3 stars is this chart from 2014:

http://vype.com/nationalhsfootball/2014 ... gning-day/

Florida appears to produce almost the same number of D1 signees as Texas, while only having a fifth of the number of high school players.

...Having said that, over the past 3 years, FL has some 30% more 3*'s than Texas?, I'm not buying that.

I agree that something is off. Texas should have the same number, if not more.

Do you find the same disparity on Scout and 247Sports?

This shows the school/coach bias that is in place at Rivals. When UT and Mack are strong, any player they even sniff at gets bumped up. Mack declines, that goes away, and Florida State is a power again and the bias shifts over there. When USC rises up again, California will surge to the front.

On average, an equivalently rated player in Texas will always be better than the same rated player in any other state, because their level of competition is so much higher. No other state invests near as much in player development in any sport as Texas does.

Or maybe these numbers explain perfectly why the Big 12 and it's teams are losing the recruiting race.....Texas kids are overrated and Rivals has figured it out. Hmmmm

Stop being homers and trying to figure out the great conspiracy theory. Those Rivals 2 stars are more accurate than the Scout & 247 3 stars.

So when folks complain about our recruit rank - if we are the same as most of the AAC then we should still kick their tails. All we need to do is worry about Houston.

Over/under on footballdad's IQ: 87.5

East Coast Mustang wrote:Over/under on footballdad's IQ: 87.5

Does the truth hurt Herman? Talk about IQ, change that stupid picture already!

footballdad wrote:

East Coast Mustang wrote:Over/under on footballdad's IQ: 87.5

Does the truth hurt Herman? Talk about IQ, change that stupid picture already!

I don't think the truth of your diminished intellectual capacity hurt Herman at all. Seems as if he is doing just fine. You...well...I'm sure you're doing just fine too with that helmet and bib.