I find that with these preseason rankings done right after the Finals, there is a tendency to just shuffle the current year's Top 25 around, despite many of the teams experiencing huge losses and many of the teams that were outside the top 25 getting pretty much everyone back or having transfers come off redshirt. My rules for ranking:
1) If better than 60% of the scoring and rebounding is coming back, the team is in good shape.
2) Freshman and Sophomores generally show bigger improvements year over year than upperclassmen.
3) Don't count on freshman to have a big impact unless they are Top 10 recruits. There will be good frosh beyond the Top 10 and some stars even, but it is hard to predict and it is as likely to come from #65 as it is from #15. UConn has had a lot of McD AA's over the years, but to this day, the three best players as freshmen in UConn history are Khalid El-Amin, Ray Allen and Doron Sheffer, and only El-Amin was a Top 30 recruit.
4) Top transfers generally show up ready to play. Lasan Kromah was an immediate contributor at UConn this year. I expect the same from Purvis next year. But transfers that were a bust at their prior school generally continue to be busts at their new school.
5) Great coaches don't have two bad years in a row. Temple won't be top 25, but they will be Top 50-60 next year. There is no way Fran Dunphy has two bad years in a row.
Mine:
1) Wisconsin - everyone comes back from a Final Four team that was great all year. Offensively this is the best team I saw all year. Defensively they need to get a little better.
2) UNC - I think losing McAdoo is addition by subtraction. Paige is the truth.
3) Villanova - I really like this team a lot.
4) Michigan - if Stauskus comes back, which I think he will.
5) SD State - if Fisher was as good a game coach at Michigan as he is now, he would have 3 rings instead of 1.
6) Kansas - huge losses but I liked the supporting cast here.
7) Arizona - offensive problems don't get better with the loss of Gordon, but this is still a good team.
SMU - the only think SMU was missing was a "go to" scorer, and they have that with Mudlay. Larry Brown coaches circles around most people on gameday, and spanked Ollie twice this year. 9) Wichita State - Early is a huge loss, but pretty much everyone else that really matters comes back and there is some major talent coming in.
10) Georgetown - 3 of the top 4 guys return on a team that got significantly better as the season went on, and there is a really good recruiting class coming in.
11) Kentucky - I don't think the Harrisons go pro. That said, Randle and Young were the stars here and they are gone. There are some top recruits coming in, but I would not be surprised to see several transfers if the Harrisons don't leave, because McD AA's are not going to ride the pine.
12) Gonzaga
13) Pitt - lose Patterson but otherwise return a lot of talent and Dixon doesn't usually have 2 down years in a row.
14) VCU
15) Oklahoma - by a hair over the mass of teams below this.
Not ranked Top 15, and why:
UConn - Boatright will return, but I don't expect Daniels back. Losing Napier, Daniels, Giffey and Kromah is going to hurt, especially on defense. Samuel and Brimah will step up big, and Purvis will be an immediate contributor and borderline star, but Hamilton will be forced to play out of position at the 4, and UConn will lose some depth unless Omar Calhoun finally recovers from his surgery of a year ago.
Duke - Jabari Parker was this team. Losing Parker and Hood will be very [deleted] this team, even with Okafor coming.
Florida - Donovan is a great coach, but the losses here are enormous. Young, Wilbekin and Prather were the 3 best players on this year's team.
Texas - I don't know if he doesn't care anymore or he has gotten dumber, but I think Barnes just sucks now as a coach.
Virginia - will be a solid team, probably 16-25, but they benefited a weak ACC this year and only playing UNC, Syracuse and Duke once each. Bennett is a good coach, but from a talent standpoint, this is not a top program. The ACC will be better next year and I don't expect the schedule to work out as well.
