SI: Bubble Watch

[Harry0569]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/colleg ... ?eref=sihp

American Athletic Conference

Locks: Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis

Cincinnati has somewhat surprisingly risen to the top of the conference, ripping off 10 straight wins including a 16-point victory at Memphis. Louisville's best win is against Connecticut, and it remains No. 7 in Ken Pomeroy's rankings. The Tigers are the third-best team in the conference, but they're safely in the tournament.

Connecticut (14-4, RPI: 31, SOS: 30)

Kevin Ollie's squad struggled over a five-game stretch from mid-December to early January, but wins over Harvard and Memphis have the Huskies looking like a safe bet for the tourney right now. They're 3-2 against top-50 RPI teams.

SMU (14-4, RPI: 41, SOS: 100)

The Mustangs' inclusion or exclusion could go down as a referendum on the AAC. They'll probably need a win over one of the conference's locks to go along with its victory against Connecticut to give the committee enough of a reason to take them in March.


As we play the big dogs, our SOS will increase. Got to win 2/3 at home vs. Cinci, L'ville, Memphis.

[Pony_Law]

You don't need 2 out of 3, you need 2 out of the five. We play those teams 5 times through the rest of the year, get 2 wins and we will almost certainly be in so long as we don't choke against the lesser conference teams.

[gostangs]

I have us as having Memphis twice, Louisville once and Cinn once. Out of those four games we need 2 I think. Cincinnati is a tough match up for us, but I think we have an excellent shot at beating Memphis at home, then we have a 50/50 shot at Memphis away. I think we are tough at home - so Louisville will be a great game to be at - and is our last home game.

If we win every game until Cinn at home - that game will be nuts.

Of course its one game at a time, we cant look ahead yada yada yade

[SMU 86]

I have us as having Memphis twice, Louisville once and Cinn once. Out of those four games we need 2 I think. Cincinnati is a tough match up for us, but I think we have an excellent shot at beating Memphis at home, then we have a 50/50 shot at Memphis away. I think we are tough at home - so Louisville will be a great game to be at - and is our last home game.

If we win every game until Cinn at home - that game will be nuts.

Of course its one game at a time, we cant look ahead yada yada yade

Don't forget UConn again. I think one more good win against any of those teams would do it.

[Nacho]

i have us winnig all 5 and going to the final 4.

[SMU 86]

i have us winnig all 5 and going to the final 4.

What about the conference tournament?

[gostangs]

I didn't forget them - they just were not one of the three lock teams being discussed. We need to get to 23 wins - which means we can only lose 4 games of the 13 left. That means we cant stumble on a supposedly easier team (Houston twice - yikes) and also means we will need more than one more good win if you see who is left on our schedule.

Of course we can get to 22 and win a couple of AAC tourny games - but hate to have to depend on that.

[SMU 86]

I think Houston as this point with all the players back now would be considered an even match as opposed to an easier team.

[Pony ^]

protect Moody and we are an at-large bid.

[gostangs]

I meant easier then the three "locks" - by no means are they easy.