Bubble watch

[DC-Pony]

It's not 68 teams though, it's more like 40 because of all the automatic bids. I still think we have a better resume than Rutgers, Michigan, Indiana, Wake Forest, Miami, Notre Dame, UNC, Xavier, Creighton, Wyoming, Oklahoma, BYU. We should be in.

SMU has suffered more than its share of getting screwed by the NCAA and the basketball selection committee. However, I think this year if we don’t get it it won’t be solely because we got screwed.

About half the teams listed above also won’t get in.

There are just not that many what I’ll call “discretionary” at large bids when you remove the automatic qualifiers and teams that are indisputably qualified.

It’s a legitimate judgement call whether you pick SMU over some of the teams above that have more high quality wins, higher season SOS, and fewer bad losses than us, but more total losses.

[ponyte]

There is nothing 'discretionary' about a NCAA decision. Discriminatory, yes. But not discretionary. In the end it sin't about merit, its about making money for the NCAA. Thus money talks, merit walks.

[mtrout]

I think our chances at NCAAs are extremely slim; 5-10%. Lots of over-analysis imo. 3 AAC teams seems like a major stretch.

We can hope Davidson beats Richmond but other than that, it's going to be a really long day.

[Charleston Pony]

It’s a legitimate judgement call whether you pick SMU over some of the teams above that have more high quality wins, higher season SOS, and fewer bad losses than us, but more total losses.

In looking at the P5 conferences, there will be plenty of teams with losing records in conference play that will boast better NET rankings than SMU because they get credit for Quad 1 and Quad 2 games that came in conference play...but take a closer look at their non-conference results and you will question their "quality wins" in non-conference games. Look at the American and you will see our middle of the pack teams beating P5 middle of the pack teams they were fortunate enough to play (UCF over Michigan and Cincy over Illinois immediately come to mind). If SMU doesn't get in, it will be because of the weak schedule and inexcusable early season losses. If the committee values how teams performed in their last 10 games, I like our chances.

[PonyEnergy]

We in with an A&M loss and a Richmond loss? I will feel pretty good about our chances if those two things happen. Or am I missing something?

[ponyboy]

You’re right that there’s basketball still to be played that could impact our chances. A&M down at the half, by the way.

[mtrout]

I think a&m is ahead of us even with a loss today.

[PonyEnergy]

I think a&m is ahead of us even with a loss today.

Lunardi seems to think they are only in with a win today

[mtrout]

Richmond wins. Now we need a miracle.

[Charleston Pony]

Richmond wins. Now we need a miracle.

I agree that Davidson has a better case than SMU for an at large bid but again they are in a conference that might not get the respect it deserves, so who knows. Davidson has wins vs Delaware and Bama and their early season losses to San Francisco and NMSU don't hurt them nearly as much as our losses to Missou and LMU. They lost to Dayton but that was a road game

[Charleston Pony]

Big 10 gets 9 teams in. We'll see if they do better than they did last year with 9 bids when they went 8-9 for basically the worst showing of any conference

[Terry Webster]

Big 10 gets 9 teams in. We'll see if they do better than they did last year with 9 bids when they went 8-9 for basically the worst showing of any conference

It's a joke that they got 9 teams in.

[mustangxc]

Teams that shouldn't be in ahead of SMU:

Rutgers
Michigan
Indiana

Notre Dame
Miami

Creighton
Marquette

Wyoming

TCU

[Charleston Pony]

Imagine how disappointed we would have been if Dayton had gotten in ahead of us, but all you have to do is look at their non-conference schedule and wins to realize they were more deserving despite our head to head win. Dayton beat Miami, Kansas, Belmont and Virginia Tech and none of those were home games.

[DC-Pony]

I think it’s fair to quibble either way.

Meanwhile, we lost 4 games we should have won. Win ANY of those and we would have been in. And that’s even with a weak non-conference schedule. We left it to chance.