From the NC State board.
http://ncstate.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1621152March 17, 2014
How NC State got into the tournament
Matt Carter
TheWolfpacker.com Editor
Talk about it in The State of Basketball
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How did that happen?
That was the question many NC State (and college basketball fans, too) were asking after the Wolfpack's name popped up during the NCAA Tournament Selection Show on CBS Sunday evening.
Most Wolfpack fans had programmed themselves to expect an NIT bid, especially after the many national "bracketologists" had not even listed the Wolfpack among the first teams out. There was one exception: Patrick Stevens of Syracuse.com. The former Maryland beat-writer for the Washington Times though is very well-respected in ACC circles for his attention to detail and knowledge.
Another ACC-region writer, David Teel of the Daily Press, also nailed the NC State pick. So how did Teel and Stevens get it right and the Joe Lunardis and Jerry Palms of the world end up missing it?
Subscribers to The Wolfpacker may have read our breakdown of the bubble Sunday afternoon on the premium State of Basketball message board where we suggested that, in our opinion, the last spot could come down to NC State and California, with SMU, Louisiana Tech and Minnesota also in the mix.
What we found when doing the bubble research throughout Sunday was that it was not hard to see how Stevens and Teel could pencil State in, and that others simply may be overlooking State.
NC State vs. SMU
It seems that SMU is this year's hot "snub team." They were in the tournament in both Lunardi and Palm's final brackets. Both Lunardi and Palm though missed on several important metrics.
In SMU's favor were their three wins over top 25 RPI teams, beating Cincinnati and Connecticut at home and winning at Connecticut as well. That's about the only advantage though that SMU had.
The Mustangs were 4-5 against top 50 teams compared to 3-9 for NCSU, but the Pack had the best win of the two, winning against Syracuse on a neutral floor in the ACC Tournament. All three of State's top 50 wins were away from home as well, and when extended out to top 100 RPI teams, NCSU went 6-11 compared to 4-6 for SMU. In other words, the edge for SMU's top 25 wins was not as significant when taking a deeper look at the two teams.
What was more important were two other critical factors. SMU had three bad losses on its profile, including a loss at RPI-ranked No. 232 South Florida, that were worse than anything NCSU had. The Pack's worst lost was at Wake Forest (RPI: 113) at the buzzer on the Deacs' home court, the same venue where NCAA Tournament teams Duke and UNC and NIT-bound Clemson all lost.
Most importantly though was strength of schedule. It's one of the few consistencies in the selection committee. Not since 2007 has an at-large team with a non-conference SOS below 250 been picked, according to research done by Stevens. SMU's non-conference SOS was an abysmal 295, compared to 108 for NCSU. Overall SOS was 114 for SMU and 33 for NC State.
SMU's non-conference slate is almost a non-starter for the selection committee.
NC State vs. Green Bay
Green Bay was the opposite of SMU, and some have made a strong case for them. They scheduled very well, with a non-conference SOS of 52. Their problem: they just didn't get enough quality wins. They did beat Virginia at home, a win that looked very impressive by the end of the year, and only loss by three at home to Wisconsin, also early in the year.
But with just one top-50 RPI win and four overall in the top 100, Green Bay lacked the overall quality of wins that NCSU had on its resume. Part of Green Bay's problem was the Horizon League's No. 14 ranking among conferences in the RPI made it problematic for Green Bay to get quality wins in the conference slate.
NC State vs. California
ESPN's Jeff Goodman was pumping up Cal on Sunday morning, and these two profiles were very close. Both teams when 6-11 against the top 100, and Cal had one more top 50 win (4-10) than NCSU (3-9). Plus, the Bears' home win over No. 1 seed Arizona was a big feather in its cap. Cal had a non-conference SOS slate ranked 105, three spots better than NCSU. The Pack's overall SOS was two spots better than Cal's No. 35.
In NC State's favor here was a slightly stronger RPI figure (55 vs. 63), and California had an ugly loss staining its profile at USC, who won just two conference games all year. However, these two teams were so close that we thought it would go either way here. Had Cal beaten Colorado in its Pac-12 Conference Tournament game, it would have been harder to justify the Pack over them.
NC State vs. Florida State
The Noles were listed as one of the last teams out by CBS' broadcast, although it is not known if that was a reflection of the committee's thoughts or not. Once again, very similar resumes here.
FSU had a better non-conference SOS (91 vs. 108) but State a better overall SOS but slimmest of margins (33 vs. 34). Both teams went 3-9 against the top 50, with all three of their wins coming away from home. Both teams won at Pittsburgh. NCSU went 3-2 against the 51-100 teams while FSU went 3-3. Both teams had bad losses at home to Miami.
FSU finished RPI No. 54 and NCSU No. 55. So how did the Pack have an edge? Because on Jan. 29 they beat the Noles, albeit on State's home floor, 74-70. That could have been the separation between the two.
NC State vs. Minnesota
The Gophers get credit for a very strong schedule, No. 49 out of conference and No. 9 overall. That put them in business off the bat. However, Minnesota went 2-8 against the top 50 and 5-11 versus the top 100. Similar to NCSU, but the Gophers only had one top 100 win away from home (at No. 75 Richmond), while State's three top 50 victories, as noted before, were all on the road.
Additionally, Minnesota also had a couple more questionable losses than NCSU (home to Northwestern and at Purdue) and an overall losing conference record (8-10).
NC State vs. Louisiana Tech
The Bulldogs went a very solid 5-5 against the top 100, including 2-2 in the top 50 with both wins away from home (at Oklahoma and a neutral floor triumph over Southern Miss).
However, they suffered the same fate as SMU with their non-conference SOS of 277 and overall SOS of 192. A bad loss at East Carolina (RPI No. 216) stained their chances.
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Posted: Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:53 pm
