ESPN Insider: SMU Preview - Predicts 1st in AAC
Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 11:38 amhttp://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college ... u-mustangs
SMU returns deep, talented team
SMU Mustangs
2013-14: 27-10 (12-6 American)
In-conference offense: 1.04 points per possession (sixth)
In-conference defense: 0.95 points allowed per possession (third)
It's a testament to the quick revitalization of the SMU program that a season characterized by such high hopes can also carry an undercurrent of lament. As good as the Mustangs should be this season -- and that's easily strong enough to win the American Athletic Conference title -- the absence of Emmanuel Mudiay will hang over everything they do. That's how much the nation's No. 2 point guard recruit would have meant to the team as a freshman.
Larry Brown is honest in saying he thought the Mustangs would have been contending for a national title with Mudiay. Instead, amid questions about his eligibility, Mudiay opted to play professionally in China. And while SMU is still deep and talented, the team lacks that extra level of elite play he would have provided.
Additionally, there is still frustration about what SMU didn't accomplish last season, even after winning 27 games, the second-highest total in school history. That, obviously, speaks to the lack of an NCAA tournament bid, which was most likely due to a nonconference schedule that ranked 299th on Kenpom.com.
"You can't tell me what the NCAA talks about in that room," Brown says. "For some teams, they say 'Oh, it's strength of schedule.' For others, it's 'You had an injury.' I don't know what the criteria were, but when Louisville is a 4-seed and Cincinnati is a 5-seed and UConn is a 7-seed, all I'm thinking is they didn't think our conference was worth a damn."
This season, though, SMU shouldn't be in a position to get snubbed by the committee. The program is even more talented than a season ago, and certainly more experienced. Even without Mudiay, SMU should get top-notch play at the point, thanks to the presence of Nic Moore. The 5-foot-9 transfer had an impressive first season with the Mustangs, averaging 13.6 PPG and 4.9 APG while knocking down 43.6 percent of his 3-pointers. He would have slid off the ball to play with Mudiay, but instead, he'll take on the responsibility of running the team, which he did effectively last season, particularly on the pick-and-roll. According to Synergy, he produced 1.02 points per play on the pick-and-roll, which ranked in the 92nd percentile in the nation. And it helps Moore that he has plenty of scoring options to hit in addition to looking for his own shot.
Chief among them is the inside tandem of senior center Yanick Moreira (6-11, 220) and junior power forward Markus Kennedy (6-9, 245). Both players were newcomers a season ago, having transferred into the program, but they made an immediate impact. Kennedy averaged 12.4 PPG and led the team in rebounding (7.1 RPG) and blocks (1.2 BPG). That was good enough to earn him second-team all-conference honors. Yet, if you ask Brown, he'll say Moreira was actually the team's best big man before injuring his knee in early January.
Prior to that point, as the team's starting center, he averaged 9.1 PPG and 5.6 RPG, but he struggled to earn significant playing time after missing four weeks. This summer, though, Moreira played for the Angolan national team in the FIBA Basketball World Cup and averaged 17.8 PPG and 8.2 RPG, which should do wonders for his game. "He's healthy now, and his confidence is at an all-time high," Brown says.
Kennedy and Moreira will also benefit from healthy competition, courtesy of veteran center Cannen Cunningham. The senior saw his minutes decrease dramatically from 32.3 MPG as a sophomore to 12.9 on last season's deeper, better squad. But he still offers solid production and a 6-10 frame, a luxury most teams don't have off the bench. Brown could have had yet another option inside, but Jordan Tolbert, a 6-7, 240-pound transfer from Texas Tech, will have to sit out the season.
Still, another transfer is immediately eligible and should be a key addition. Justin Martin (6-6, 205) averaged 11.7 PPG and 5.2 RPG at Xavier last season, but because he earned his degree, he is able to play for SMU right away. He'll fit comfortably into the small forward spot previously occupied by Nick Russell and offer much of the versatility and leadership that Russell took with him. He'll compete for time with Ben Moore, a skinny, 6-8 sophomore whom Brown says might best be utilized at point guard. He averaged 6.2 PPG and 3.6 RPG, but Brown takes the blame for not getting more out of him. "His only hang-up is the coach didn't know how to use him," Brown says. Don't expect that to be a problem that will continue.
Similarly, Brown has to get more production out of another sophomore, Keith Frazier. The 6-5 shooting guard was a landmark recruit for Brown -- a local McDonald's All-American who spurned a host of top programs to stay in Dallas. His production didn't quite match the hype as a freshman, but much of that burden lands on Brown -- Frazier hit 39.8 percent of his 3-pointers but took less than three per game and played only 14.8 minutes per night. With suitable playing time and shot opportunities, Frazier should easily be a double-figure scorer, but that requires Brown to adjust his philosophy to a certain degree. Last season, SMU shot exceptionally well from 3-point range (37.9 percent, 48th in the country), but only 23.7 percent of their shots came from deep (345th).
"I'm kind of old school," Brown says, stating the obvious. "If you look at my history, I try to get layups and get fouled and get high-percentage shots. But with Nic and Justin and Keith, those guys can shoot the ball, and I think we can do a better job of getting them shots."
Brown is also still waiting on news about yet another transfer, former Virginia Tech guard Ben Emelogu, who could make the backcourt even deeper, along with promising sophomore Sterling Brown, who started 26 games last season. At 6-6, the latter brings great size to the guard position but must cut down on his mistakes -- he had more turnovers (43) than assists (40) a season ago. And don't forget about 6-4 senior Ryan Manuel, another player whose role changed with the influx of talent last season, but who still managed to start 11 games.
If you're keeping track, that's a roster that could easily run 10 deep, depending on Emelogu's status. That will allow Brown to keep his players focused on defense -- the Mustangs ranked 17th in the nation in defensive efficiency at 94.7 points per 100 possessions -- since he can comfortably sit anyone who doesn't buy in. That quality, along with the dynamic Moore at the point, a more integral Frazier and the inside duo of Kennedy and Moreira, should ensure no worse than a second-place finish in the American and make SMU the primary challenger to UConn's supremacy.
Projected starting lineup
Yanick Moreira
Markus Kennedy Jr.
Justin Martin
Keith Frazier
Nic Moore
Projected 2014-15 conference finish: first
SMU returns deep, talented team
SMU Mustangs
2013-14: 27-10 (12-6 American)
In-conference offense: 1.04 points per possession (sixth)
In-conference defense: 0.95 points allowed per possession (third)
It's a testament to the quick revitalization of the SMU program that a season characterized by such high hopes can also carry an undercurrent of lament. As good as the Mustangs should be this season -- and that's easily strong enough to win the American Athletic Conference title -- the absence of Emmanuel Mudiay will hang over everything they do. That's how much the nation's No. 2 point guard recruit would have meant to the team as a freshman.
Larry Brown is honest in saying he thought the Mustangs would have been contending for a national title with Mudiay. Instead, amid questions about his eligibility, Mudiay opted to play professionally in China. And while SMU is still deep and talented, the team lacks that extra level of elite play he would have provided.
Additionally, there is still frustration about what SMU didn't accomplish last season, even after winning 27 games, the second-highest total in school history. That, obviously, speaks to the lack of an NCAA tournament bid, which was most likely due to a nonconference schedule that ranked 299th on Kenpom.com.
"You can't tell me what the NCAA talks about in that room," Brown says. "For some teams, they say 'Oh, it's strength of schedule.' For others, it's 'You had an injury.' I don't know what the criteria were, but when Louisville is a 4-seed and Cincinnati is a 5-seed and UConn is a 7-seed, all I'm thinking is they didn't think our conference was worth a damn."
This season, though, SMU shouldn't be in a position to get snubbed by the committee. The program is even more talented than a season ago, and certainly more experienced. Even without Mudiay, SMU should get top-notch play at the point, thanks to the presence of Nic Moore. The 5-foot-9 transfer had an impressive first season with the Mustangs, averaging 13.6 PPG and 4.9 APG while knocking down 43.6 percent of his 3-pointers. He would have slid off the ball to play with Mudiay, but instead, he'll take on the responsibility of running the team, which he did effectively last season, particularly on the pick-and-roll. According to Synergy, he produced 1.02 points per play on the pick-and-roll, which ranked in the 92nd percentile in the nation. And it helps Moore that he has plenty of scoring options to hit in addition to looking for his own shot.
Chief among them is the inside tandem of senior center Yanick Moreira (6-11, 220) and junior power forward Markus Kennedy (6-9, 245). Both players were newcomers a season ago, having transferred into the program, but they made an immediate impact. Kennedy averaged 12.4 PPG and led the team in rebounding (7.1 RPG) and blocks (1.2 BPG). That was good enough to earn him second-team all-conference honors. Yet, if you ask Brown, he'll say Moreira was actually the team's best big man before injuring his knee in early January.
Prior to that point, as the team's starting center, he averaged 9.1 PPG and 5.6 RPG, but he struggled to earn significant playing time after missing four weeks. This summer, though, Moreira played for the Angolan national team in the FIBA Basketball World Cup and averaged 17.8 PPG and 8.2 RPG, which should do wonders for his game. "He's healthy now, and his confidence is at an all-time high," Brown says.
Kennedy and Moreira will also benefit from healthy competition, courtesy of veteran center Cannen Cunningham. The senior saw his minutes decrease dramatically from 32.3 MPG as a sophomore to 12.9 on last season's deeper, better squad. But he still offers solid production and a 6-10 frame, a luxury most teams don't have off the bench. Brown could have had yet another option inside, but Jordan Tolbert, a 6-7, 240-pound transfer from Texas Tech, will have to sit out the season.
Still, another transfer is immediately eligible and should be a key addition. Justin Martin (6-6, 205) averaged 11.7 PPG and 5.2 RPG at Xavier last season, but because he earned his degree, he is able to play for SMU right away. He'll fit comfortably into the small forward spot previously occupied by Nick Russell and offer much of the versatility and leadership that Russell took with him. He'll compete for time with Ben Moore, a skinny, 6-8 sophomore whom Brown says might best be utilized at point guard. He averaged 6.2 PPG and 3.6 RPG, but Brown takes the blame for not getting more out of him. "His only hang-up is the coach didn't know how to use him," Brown says. Don't expect that to be a problem that will continue.
Similarly, Brown has to get more production out of another sophomore, Keith Frazier. The 6-5 shooting guard was a landmark recruit for Brown -- a local McDonald's All-American who spurned a host of top programs to stay in Dallas. His production didn't quite match the hype as a freshman, but much of that burden lands on Brown -- Frazier hit 39.8 percent of his 3-pointers but took less than three per game and played only 14.8 minutes per night. With suitable playing time and shot opportunities, Frazier should easily be a double-figure scorer, but that requires Brown to adjust his philosophy to a certain degree. Last season, SMU shot exceptionally well from 3-point range (37.9 percent, 48th in the country), but only 23.7 percent of their shots came from deep (345th).
"I'm kind of old school," Brown says, stating the obvious. "If you look at my history, I try to get layups and get fouled and get high-percentage shots. But with Nic and Justin and Keith, those guys can shoot the ball, and I think we can do a better job of getting them shots."
Brown is also still waiting on news about yet another transfer, former Virginia Tech guard Ben Emelogu, who could make the backcourt even deeper, along with promising sophomore Sterling Brown, who started 26 games last season. At 6-6, the latter brings great size to the guard position but must cut down on his mistakes -- he had more turnovers (43) than assists (40) a season ago. And don't forget about 6-4 senior Ryan Manuel, another player whose role changed with the influx of talent last season, but who still managed to start 11 games.
If you're keeping track, that's a roster that could easily run 10 deep, depending on Emelogu's status. That will allow Brown to keep his players focused on defense -- the Mustangs ranked 17th in the nation in defensive efficiency at 94.7 points per 100 possessions -- since he can comfortably sit anyone who doesn't buy in. That quality, along with the dynamic Moore at the point, a more integral Frazier and the inside duo of Kennedy and Moreira, should ensure no worse than a second-place finish in the American and make SMU the primary challenger to UConn's supremacy.
Projected starting lineup
Yanick Moreira
Markus Kennedy Jr.
Justin Martin
Keith Frazier
Nic Moore
Projected 2014-15 conference finish: first
