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Will someone with a better BBall IQ than me explain our Tournament chances if we win/lose against Michigan? If we lose, no matter what we do besides winning the conference are we out? If we win, and play decent throughout conference and don't win the conference tournament do we still have a chance barring we take care of business in the games we are supposed to win?

I am college basketball stupid. I would have thought we would have been in the field last season. But I do know our chances of making the tournament are 100% if we win the conference.

EconPony'10 wrote:Will someone with a better BBall IQ than me explain our Tournament chances if we win/lose against Michigan? If we lose, no matter what we do besides winning the conference are we out? If we win, and play decent throughout conference and don't win the conference tournament do we still have a chance barring we take care of business in the games we are supposed to win?

Can't possibly predict that right now. The one thing I am sure of is that SMU can't take any more bad losses in the OOC, if they run the table with the exception of Michigan, they're in okay shape heading into conference play. That said, somewhere the team needs to get 4-5 quality wins, one being on the road between now and March. They also can't afford to have more than 7-8 losses or they're playing with fire having lost to Indiana already. No bad losses in the OOC or in conference is key. Margin for error just got a lot tighter in the last week and a half. The committee will write some of it off without MK but with MK, the team better sure as hell look a lot different and be winning some big games. The conference is very weak this year unfortunately, UConn is a borderline top 25, Memphis and UC are borderline tourney teams. Not a good conference schedule. The OOC was supposed to help offset the loss of Louisville and unfortunately the team isn't clicking right now.

Again, absolutely impossible to predict right now because there are so many moving pieces and were 2 weeks into the season. SMU would not be in the tournament today if you want an answer now on the team haha.

We nearly made it in last year without these teams on our schedule. We didn't, because of the poor strength of schedule. Winning would be better, but even in loss, our SOS will be much higher. As long as we perform equivalently to last season, that should be the edge we need. Hopefully we'll win a conference tourney game or two and leave no doubt.

This team has 3 losses in 5 games and has virtually no shot at making the tournament unless they win the conference. Expectations after last season were high, but after watching the first 5 games this year, I feel like last year was an outlier year and you'll see this team back to win totals in the teens.

diamond_tom wrote:We nearly made it in last year without these teams on our schedule. We didn't, because of the poor strength of schedule. Winning would be better, but even in loss, our SOS will be much higher. As long as we perform equivalently to last season, that should be the edge we need. Hopefully we'll win a conference tourney game or two and leave no doubt.

We still can't lose all 4 major OOC games and expect to be views in a good light. And they certainly can't lose to Wyoming. Since our conference is weaker this year we have to do better than last year which means we can't drop games to USF and Temple like we did last year.

SMU 86 wrote:

diamond_tom wrote:We nearly made it in last year without these teams on our schedule. We didn't, because of the poor strength of schedule. Winning would be better, but even in loss, our SOS will be much higher. As long as we perform equivalently to last season, that should be the edge we need. Hopefully we'll win a conference tourney game or two and leave no doubt.

We still can lose all 4 major OOC games and expect to be views in a good light. And they certainly can't lose to Wyoming. Since our conference is weaker this year we have to do better than last year which means we can't drop games to USF and Temple like we did last year.

SMU started 4 - 1 in their first 5 games, they are 2-3 this year. They didn't lose their 3rd game until the 13th game of the season last year. The ship has sailed on doing better than last year FTR. Trust me, no one is more bummed than me about this, but it is fact.

INFan wrote:

SMU 86 wrote:

diamond_tom wrote:We nearly made it in last year without these teams on our schedule. We didn't, because of the poor strength of schedule. Winning would be better, but even in loss, our SOS will be much higher. As long as we perform equivalently to last season, that should be the edge we need. Hopefully we'll win a conference tourney game or two and leave no doubt.

We still can lose all 4 major OOC games and expect to be views in a good light. And they certainly can't lose to Wyoming. Since our conference is weaker this year we have to do better than last year which means we can't drop games to USF and Temple like we did last year.

SMU started 4 - 1 in their first 5 games, they are 2-3 this year. They didn't lose their 3rd game until the 13th game of the season last year. The ship has sailed on doing better than last year FTR. Trust me, no one is more bummed than me about this, but it is fact.

Meant to say can't lose all 4 major OOC games and expect to be views in a good light.

INFan wrote:

SMU 86 wrote:

diamond_tom wrote:We nearly made it in last year without these teams on our schedule. We didn't, because of the poor strength of schedule. Winning would be better, but even in loss, our SOS will be much higher. As long as we perform equivalently to last season, that should be the edge we need. Hopefully we'll win a conference tourney game or two and leave no doubt.

We still can lose all 4 major OOC games and expect to be views in a good light. And they certainly can't lose to Wyoming. Since our conference is weaker this year we have to do better than last year which means we can't drop games to USF and Temple like we did last year.

SMU started 4 - 1 in their first 5 games, they are 2-3 this year. They didn't lose their 3rd game until the 13th game of the season last year. The ship has sailed on doing better than last year FTR. Trust me, no one is more bummed than me about this, but it is fact.

I disagree. We won those games against teams like McNeese state and rhode Island. If we make up those wins against the conference teams that we should have beaten last year and finish with the same record, we should be ok. Just please don't lose first conf. Tourney game! I was in Memphis for that fun last season.

SMU 86 wrote:

INFan wrote:

SMU 86 wrote:We still can lose all 4 major OOC games and expect to be views in a good light. And they certainly can't lose to Wyoming. Since our conference is weaker this year we have to do better than last year which means we can't drop games to USF and Temple like we did last year.

SMU started 4 - 1 in their first 5 games, they are 2-3 this year. They didn't lose their 3rd game until the 13th game of the season last year. The ship has sailed on doing better than last year FTR. Trust me, no one is more bummed than me about this, but it is fact.

Meant to say can't lose all 4 major OOC games and expect to be views in a good light.

Confernce is weaker this year without Louisville. So the OOC only makes up for losing Louisville. We need to beat Michigan without a Wyoming hiccup. MK will be back for Michigan hopefully.

There are still 2 games prior to the Michigan game that are losable IMO. Wyoming is one and don't be surprised if UCSB gives us fits. SMU absolutely MUST win these games, the Michigan game and do very well in conference play to have any shot at any worthwhile postseason tourney.

The AAC is looking weak so far. The only way we get in now is winning the conference which won't happen. Maybe if we win out at home and beat Michigan with a good showing in the conf tourney. Maybe. Anything short of that forget it.

INFan wrote:This team has 3 losses in 5 games and has virtually no shot at making the tournament unless they win the conference. Expectations after last season were high, but after watching the first 5 games this year, I feel like last year was an outlier year and you'll see this team back to win totals in the teens.

Agreed.