Seth Davis Annual Stock Report: BUY SMU

[Harry0569]

SMU (8-3, NR): BUY

Hopefully you were smart enough to buy this stock before the Mustangs played at Michigan, because they are going to be a different team with junior center Markus Kennedy back from academic purgatory. I love the inside-outside combo of Nic Moore and Yanick Moreira, and even before Kennedy came back, SMU was defending fairly well. Given how league opponents UConn, Cincinnati and Memphis have struggled in the early going, I expect SMU to be back in the national rankings fairly soon. Even if they’re not, I have faith that Larry Brown will figure out a way to get this team into the NCAA tournament.

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/20 ... -wisconsin

[Harry0569]

TCU (12-0, NR): SELL-PLUS

This is the first time in the history of the HTSR that I have issued this rating. The Horned Frogs have every reason to feel good about their perfect record and national ranking, but this is basically the same team that did not win a single conference game last season. Not one! Their nonconference schedule is full of lousy teams, and their best win in came at Ole Miss. And get this: Beginning on Jan. 19, the Horned Frogs will play seven consecutive games against teams that are currently ranked. So this team is headed for a hard crash, and if you’re still holding the stock, you’re going to crash right along with it.

LOL

[Harry0569]

Arkansas (10-2, NR): BUY

I believed coming into the season that the Razorbacks were the second-best team in the SEC, and despite a couple of road hiccups at Iowa State and Clemson (in overtime), I haven’t changed my opinion. They dropped a couple of road games at Iowa State and Clemson, but there’s no shame in that. What’s really a shame is that the Razorbacks don’t get a shot at home against Kentucky, because that would have been a must-see game.

Cincinnati (8-3, NR): SELL

I would have given the Bearcats this rating even before the news broke that coach Mick Cronin will be out indefinitely because of an unruptured aneurysm. In their first game without him, the Bearcats got blown out at home by VCU. Even with Cronin, Cincy still lost to Ole Miss (neutral) and at Nebraska. You can’t beat good teams if you can’t score, so Cincinnati has a fatal problem. I can only hope that Cronin will be OK and back on the sidelines soon.

Connecticut (6-4, NR): BUY

This is an easy call. This team has too much talent and is too well-coached to stay down for long. Ryan Boatright is not Shabazz Napier, but he’s still a lethal weapon who needs to learn how to make his teammates better. It would help if Rodney Purvis snaps out of his funk, but the American Conference is soft in the middle, so it’s only a matter of time before the Huskies rise to the top of the standings and return to the rankings.

Gonzaga (12-1, No. 7): BUY

The 'Zags took care of business by fending off a plucky BYU squad in Provo Saturday night. It’s hard to see where they are going to suffer another loss between now and the NCAA tournament. This is a veteran team, and there is a huge gulf between them and the rest of the West Coast Conference. My only concern right now with Gonzaga is a lack of bench production, but hopefully freshman point guard Josh Perkins, who suffered a broken jaw in a win over St. John’s last month, won’t be out for too much longer.

Indiana (10-3, NR): BUY

I’ve been a believer in this team for a while now, and the loss to Georgetown over the weekend only makes this a better purchase. The Hoosiers rely heavily on a freshman guard, James Blackmon Jr., who is going to continue to improve, and they have an emerging star in jumping jack forward Troy Williams. They won’t beast many opponents in the paint, but I like their depth and the way they compete. Perhaps more than any other team in the Big Ten, the Hoosiers stand to benefit the most from the downturn the league is experiencing.

Memphis (7-4, NR): SELL

The Tigers benefited from being a senior-dominated rotation last season, but now they are paying the price. I like the forward tandem of Austin Nichols and Shaq Goodwin, but this team’s guards are pretty awful. They don’t take care of the ball (Memphis is ranked 322nd in turnover percentage) or force turnovers (326th in steal percentage). All four of Memphis’ losses have come against good teams, but the Tigers were not competitive in any of those games.

Michigan (7-5, NR): BUY

This stock is the bargain hunter’s dream. The price plummeted thanks to a four-game losing streak that included home losses to NJIT and Eastern Michigan, but this is still the same team that beat Oregon and Syracuse and took Villanova to the last possession. The Wolverines aren’t great by any stretch, but they aren’t as bad as they’ve been playing, and John Beilein is still one of the best coaches in the country. You’ve got to believe that Beilein is going to figure something out to make this purchase worth your while.

[ojaipony]

Thanks for posting. The stars are all aligning for SMU. Up to the team to take advantage of it.

Let's all get to Moody and bring friends and be loud and rowdy as hell to help them and do our part!

[ReedFrawg]

Seth must have missed the home games against UCSB and Midwestern...sorry but SMU has really not looked good this year. Not flaming as I have been following the team this year. I suspect you will kick it into gear and feast on a bit of a down conference but sights have to be higher than just getting to the tourney.

[1983 Cotton Bowl]

As should probably have been expected. . .MK has looked extremely rusty in his first 2 games back. Look for him to round into shape in about 2 weeks.

This team is not perfect by any stretch. . .but I think we are going to get stronger as this thing rolls into 2015.

[ojaipony]

Seth must have missed the home games against UCSB and Midwestern...sorry but SMU has really not looked good this year. Not flaming as I have been following the team this year. I suspect you will kick it into gear and feast on a bit of a down conference but sights have to be higher than just getting to the tourney.

Just one quick question: did you go to TCU?

[ponyboy]

Reed played football at TCU.

[Nacho]

i loved his analysis of tcu.

[Nacho]

Reed played football at TCU.

well he was a kicker so technically he played football.

[smusic 00]

sights have to be higher than just getting to the tourney.

Why? Are TCU's?

[smupony94]

My TCU nerd nephew says SMU basketball is better and that is all that matters. He has gone to 5 games each of TCU and SMU

[ReedFrawg]

sights have to be higher than just getting to the tourney.

Why? Are TCU's?

I kicked at TCU. And our sights are not set high at all. Getting to the tourney this year would be amazing...NIT would be great. SMU sights should be advancing in the tourney - JMO.

(I made my comments about SMU without even mentioning TCU...was trying to make it not an argument about the two teams.)

[ReedFrawg]

i loved his analysis of tcu.

Except for making the claim that it is the same TCU team from last year. It's not even close but I doubt he knows this.

[SMUstangs22]

i loved his analysis of tcu.

Except for making the claim that it is the same TCU team from last year. It's not even close but I doubt he knows this.

Didnt TCU have some key transfers sitting their year out?