SI's Seth Davis: Hoop Thoughts Stock Watch

[Harry0569]

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/20 ... olina-duke

SMU (13–0, No. 15) — BUY

Leave it to Larry Brown to be coaching a Final Four-caliber team that is ineligible for postseason play. And get ready for a slew of stories pointing this out, because the Mustangs appear to be on their way to being the nation’s last unbeaten team. The AAC is having a down year, which means if SMU can get by Cincinnati at home this Thursday, it could be unblemished well into February. The Mustangs have an intriguing blend of old and young, big and small, and they can really defend when they are locked in. They also appear to be motivated, not deflated, by their postseason ban, and that is very bad news for the rest of the AAC.

[Harry0569]

Baylor (10-3) — SELL

I’ve been pretty bullish on the Bears for much of the season, but I have cooled of late. They played three road games this season against good teams and lost them all, to Oregon, Texas A&M and Kansas. Against the Aggies (final score, 80–61) and Jayhawks (102–74), Baylor wasn't even competitive. The Bears do have my reigning All-Glue captain in Rico Gathers, however, which means they are an outstanding offensive rebounding team, but they are not good enough defensively and do not get enough production from their guards to be able to grind out a lot of wins in such a difficult league.

Cincinnati (11–4) — BUY

This is a great time to buy Cincinnati. The Bearcats had five challenging nonconference games. They picked up two wins (George Washington and VCU) and suffered three close losses (Butler, Xavier and Iowa State). Then they lost last week at home to Temple, which not only knocked their stock down a few ticks, but also provided an opportunity for coach Mick Cronin to send a firm message to his guys. The players responded by thrashing Tulsa at home over the weekend, and now they have a golden opportunity Thursday night at SMU. If they win, this stock will go through the roof. If they lose, it won’t drop at all.

Colorado (12–3) — BUY

No, the Buffaloes don’t have a classic, playmaking point guard. They do, however, have an effective (if slightly built) senior power forward in 6'10", 245-pound Josh Scott (17.9 ppg, 9.5 rpg), a bevy of three-point shooters (CU is second in Pac-12 in three-point percentage and made threes) and a roster full of versatile, long-armed defenders. This will be an even better purchase if senior swingman Xavier Johnson, who tore his Achilles’ tendon over the summer, rejoins the team in the next couple of weeks. He is considering taking a medical redshirt.

Connecticut (10-3, No. 23) — SELL

It might surprise you to see me rate the Huskies a Sell, since I have consistently ranked them higher than most of my fellow AP voters. But the loss of 7-foot junior center Amida Brimah, who will be out another six weeks with a broken finger, is devastating. He was one of the nation’s top shot blockers and was evolving into a passable offensive threat. Moreover, it seems as if the reserves, particularly freshman point guard Jalen Adams, have regressed over the last couple of weeks. UConn did well to take care of business by beating Ohio State at home on Dec. 12 and earned a good road win at Texas on Dec. 29, but it was unsettling to watch the Huskies struggle on the road against Tulane over the weekend. This is one of the strongest brands in college basketball. My sense is that the public assumes this team has more potential than it actually does.

Gonzaga (12–3) — SELL

I realize this stock isn’t worth much right now, so if you want to hold onto it for a while, I won’t try to talk you out of it. But I suspect that this could be the year the Zags finally miss out on the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1998. Even though all three of their losses were to quality teams (Texas A&M, Arizona and UCLA), their only good win came over UConn in the Bahamas. The bigger problem is that Gonzaga lost senior center Przemek Karnowski for the season because he needed back surgery. Not only does that mean it will be harder to beat good teams without him, but that lone decent win over the Huskies is virtually negated because it happened before Karnowski went out. So the Bulldogs will likely have to win the West Coast Conference’s automatic bid to get back to the NCAAs, and after watching them experience close shaves at Santa Clara and San Francisco last week, I am not convinced they can pull that off.

Memphis (9–4) — BUY

This is a low-risk, high-reward purchase. Nobody thinks the Tigers are an NCAA tournament team, so their stock is dirt cheap right now. Yet, none of their four losses were awful (they only lost to Oklahoma at home by six points, and they gave undefeated South Carolina a good run on Saturday before losing by 10 on the road). Memphis’s problem, as usual, is that it is a horrendous shooting team. But that can improve over time, especially with better shot selection. In the meantime, the Tigers lead the nation in offensive free throw rate, and they have a dynamic talent in freshman forward Dedric Lawson. If he takes a few leaps forward, Memphis could make some hay in the AAC and sneak into the tournament. In which case ... ka-ching!

Michigan (12–3) — SELL

I wasn’t that high on the Wolverines to begin with, but there is a lot of cause for concern right now with the uncertain fate of Caris LeVert. The 6'7" senior guard has had two surgeries on his left foot, and he missed the second half of last season. He sat out last Saturday’s win over Penn State with what coach John Beilein is cryptically describing as a lower leg injury. It is encouraging that the Wolverines finally appear to be getting some post scoring with the recent improvement of 6'9" sophomore Mark Donnal, but that will not make up for the loss of one of the nation’s most versatile scorers—especially now that Michigan is headed into the teeth of a very strong Big Ten conference.

Texas (8–5) — SELL

I would probably have recommended this rating anyway, but losing senior center Cameron Ridley to a broken foot is a killer blow for this team. Ridley had worked very hard to lose weight and become a dominant force in the middle, and without him the Longhorns will have to rely even more on its inexperienced perimeter players, not to mention a point guard in Isaiah Taylor who can’t shoot. Combine that with the difficulty of the Big 12 and I foresee a difficult two months ahead. The good news is that if Texas is a bubble team, that win over North Carolina will help.

Texas A&M (11–2, No. 21) — HOLD

This team is a good example of the need for constant evaluation. The Aggies jumped into the rankings because they beat Gonzaga by a single point at the Battle 4 Atlantis in November, and their seven-point loss to Syracuse the next afternoon was forgiven because the Orange were thought to be a really good team. Today, neither Gonzaga nor Syracuse is ranked, and while the Aggies did beat Kansas State and Baylor, both of those games were at home. When they had to play their only true road game against a mediocre Arizona State on Dec. 5, they fell flat, losing by 13 points. So we’re left with a good team that has a few good scorers and shares the ball really well, but one that does not have the requisite guard play to ascend to greater heights. My gut tells me the holding pattern will continue for a while.

Sleeper Stocks

Houston (12–2). If there were any doubts the Cougars could compete in the AAC, they were erased when Houston opened conference play with road wins at South Florida and Temple (the latter by 27 points, no less). They have the league’s top scorer in 6'2" sophomore guard Rob Gray Jr. (18.8 ppg).

Yale (7–5). The Bulldogs got plenty road tested during the first two months. They lost at SMU by two points and at Illinois by four. With Harvard having a down year, Yale is the favorite to win the Ivy, which would put it in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1962.

[Smulaw90]

I love it. This is the positive publicity we are going to continue to receive if this team keeps winning. I'm telling you if we were #15 with post season possibility, the talk would simply be: we are a good team, possibly real good.

With the sanctions in place, the discussion becomes about motivation; rising above the fray; fighting for pride; fighting for character and school, etc.....

I'm telling you, come MArch, if UConn or Cinn can make a good run, the talk will be, "had SMU been here...."

[gostangs]

i'd REALLY rather the talk be about us being there, not "had they been there". When they are all there and we are not - it is REALLY going to suck.

[hoopmanx]

It's 4 days, selection Sunday through tipoff on Thursday, you'll be fine

[PonyKai]

Just imagine the alternate scenario: sitting on your couch in six months saying "f*ck half the team transferred!"

[skyscraper]

Just imagine the alternate scenario: sitting on your couch in six months saying "f*ck half the team transferred!"

This. Are there still people who haven't made peace with the tourney ban? Apparently so.
Let it go folks. You will feel better and enjoy this team and season much more.

[gostangs]

I'm fine with the decision. But no - I'm not looking forward to the tournament under the "gee they mentioned us a little bit" scenario.

[smusic 00]

Just take a long vacation in March. You'll feel better.

[smusportspage]

Just take a long vacation in March. You'll feel better.

I hear Vegas at that time of year is top notch.

[mrydel]

Last year we got bumped in the first round and other than some "bad call" discussions, we were forgotten. This year, if we maintain a high level of play, we will be discussed up to the elite 8 and possibly the final four. Our name will come up often.

Of course it would be nice to be there but we will get a lot more pub than last year.

[Pony ^]

we're better off for the future. As long as UNC gets their hammer, I'm over it.