Does a short bench hurt your team’s NCAA Tournament chances?
Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2017 10:30 amhttp://fansided.com/2017/02/24/short-be ... t-chances/
Very relevant for us.
"Teams with bench minutes 25 percent and below, with an average seed of 8.3, have won between 22 and 24 more games than they’d be expected to. This is consistent whether we’re controlling for expected wins by seed or log5 simulations."
"When it comes down to single-elimination games, who wins is most often about who’s putting the best players on the floor. Many coaches cut their postseason rotations down to 8 or less even if they have other options available. Much like the NBA postseason, depth and benches matter less; it’s your best vs. their best. Teams that earned high seeds with short rotations will likely have better top end players than teams with deeper rotations, almost by necessity.
"But mainly, I’d conclude that fans of teams with short benches — like Villanova, Kansas, Baylor, Notre Dame, and UCLA — shouldn’t worry that their teams can’t win with just 6 or 7 players. History shows they can do well in the tournament – and often do."
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Per Ken Pom
– Bench minutes are computed by assuming that the starters are the five players that have played the most minutes on the season. The minutes of remaining players are all assumed to be bench minutes. Players that have played less than 10% of their team’s minutes are not included.
SMU is 349/351 is terms of % Bench Minutes (19%); NCAA average is 32%
Very relevant for us.
"Teams with bench minutes 25 percent and below, with an average seed of 8.3, have won between 22 and 24 more games than they’d be expected to. This is consistent whether we’re controlling for expected wins by seed or log5 simulations."
"When it comes down to single-elimination games, who wins is most often about who’s putting the best players on the floor. Many coaches cut their postseason rotations down to 8 or less even if they have other options available. Much like the NBA postseason, depth and benches matter less; it’s your best vs. their best. Teams that earned high seeds with short rotations will likely have better top end players than teams with deeper rotations, almost by necessity.
"But mainly, I’d conclude that fans of teams with short benches — like Villanova, Kansas, Baylor, Notre Dame, and UCLA — shouldn’t worry that their teams can’t win with just 6 or 7 players. History shows they can do well in the tournament – and often do."
______________________________________________________________________
Per Ken Pom
– Bench minutes are computed by assuming that the starters are the five players that have played the most minutes on the season. The minutes of remaining players are all assumed to be bench minutes. Players that have played less than 10% of their team’s minutes are not included.
SMU is 349/351 is terms of % Bench Minutes (19%); NCAA average is 32%