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Last Four-In

vs. Syracuse, then Seton Hall IN DALLAS OMG

http://www.espn.com/ncb/bracketology?it ... &year=2018

Just as long as we get in

#11 in the East facing #6 Rhode Island
https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

Last four in. Playing Missouri in Dayton.
http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/ ... ble-teams/

Second team out as of this morning - not as far of a fall as I had guessed.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

If the team can defend Moody and maybe pull an upset against Cincy (who should be top 15) should get us there assuming no horrible losses to ECU or USF. I believe the committee will look at those losses as road losses which anyone in the conference should be able to defend their home court.

We have from current AP perspective

#11 Zona (neutral court)
#17 WSU (away)
- unfortunately USC isn't ranked

Boise is receiving votes so thats a win

We still have
#17 WSU @ home
#9 Cincy @ home
RV - Houston @home & away

If we can get those wins above, we should be a slam dunk for the committee. If we can 1 of WSU or Cincy and 1 between Houston games then I think it still would be hard to deny us. Obviously if we lose all 4 then we are NIT bound. This again is assuming no bad losses to ECU/USF. I think beating Tulsa and Memphis is a must especially at home. On the road, there's still forgiveness in that. Just my take. It's a tall order, but we can't blow a chance to get in to keep our growth with recruits especially in a year where we beat Zona/USC/WSU.

Past history indicates to me that they will not let a team into the NCAA tournament from the AAC if that team has 10 losses. Looking at the schedule and this team I just don't believe they are going to not lose at least 3 more times. I think this team will be lucky to win 1 game out of the 3 between @UH WSU and Cinci. That would get us to 9 losses on the year and we will not win the AAC tournament meaning we have a likely 3rd loss.

SMU_Alum11 wrote:We have from current AP perspective

#11 Zona (neutral court)
#17 WSU (away)
- unfortunately USC isn't ranked

Boise is receiving votes so thats a win

As long as they don't pratfall vs. Cal Sunday, USC should be back in the RV category next week. 16-6, RPI of 36 and a half game out of first place. Only a 50+ foot shot is keeping them out of 1st.

Committee doesn't look at the AP Poll - you need to use RPI, KenPom etc when looking at our wins and losses, not some poll where a portion of the participants don't even pay attention.

Ironically, UConn went way up in RPI after beating us, while Tulane plummeted after losing at home to USF. I don't think we can afford any more losses outside of top 50 (Houston is exactly #50 right now). Would help if Memphis climbed above 100 and Wichita hung in the top 25 as well. We can still lose one, maybe two more (before AAC tourney), but they have to be top 50 losses I think.

Tall order, but I'm not ready to give up hope yet. Those wins at Wichita and neutral vs AZ continue to give us a chance - we haven't had any wins like those two in the Brown/Jank era.

New projections up this morning from both ESPN and CBS. First four game per ESPN and safely in per CBS. Not dead yet...

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

RI Stang wrote:New projections up this morning from both ESPN and CBS. First four game per ESPN and safely in per CBS. Not dead yet...

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

Our wins against USC, Arizona, WSU, and Boise will keep us on the bubble so long as we don't drop anymore games to teams like ECU and USF. The committee is emphasizing quality wins and we have 4. We just have to take care of business against UCF and Memphis, not lose to ECU and USF, and get something from the 4 games against Houston, Cinci and WSU.

There's so much parity we could still sneak in. But how many of us believe we won't have another f- up on the road against a team we should beat? Weird season.

skyscraper wrote:There's so much parity we could still sneak in. But how many of us believe we won't have another f- up on the road against a team we should beat? Weird season.

Based on our road performance this year, the teams we "shout beat" on the road are dwindling.
We might be a better team than Tulsa, but I'm no longer sure we "should beat" them at their place on Thursday. And @ Houston next week certainly isn't in that category; @ UCF is a toss up...which leaves @ ECU and @ USF as the only "should beat" road teams left IMO.

Luckily those that follow and predict these kind of things have more faith in our Mustangs than most of those on this board. New update from Bracket Matrix last night has us in the field, although in first four:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

How much fun would this be? First Four game vs Harry and Marquette...

Pony_Law wrote:Past history indicates to me that they will not let a team into the NCAA tournament from the AAC if that team has 10 losses. Looking at the schedule and this team I just don't believe they are going to not lose at least 3 more times. I think this team will be lucky to win 1 game out of the 3 between @UH WSU and Cinci. That would get us to 9 losses on the year and we will not win the AAC tournament meaning we have a likely 3rd loss.

In 2016 Cincy got in with 10 losses and Tulsa got in with 11 losses. If we go 22-9 in regular season and 1-1 in Conference tourney we should get in. That will be hard to do but with the quality wins (would be 6 Top 50 wins in that scenario) and RPI right around 40 would be a good resume.

I’m not sold we will get to 22-9 in regular season, but if we do on what is a weak bubble right now we should get in.