Thoughts on the MBB team so far

I'll start with overall concepts and then we can get into individual players.
On the defensive side, the length of the team really stands out. Pure man. If the offense was more efficient, then we would pick up full court more frequently. It will be interesting to see if we work in any zone at all over the course of the season. Because of the depth of the team, it is probably in our advantage to just run man and make the other team run until they wear themselves out, which happened last night. The issues that I see are off the ball defending (will work itself out as the team gets used to each other), blocking out from the perimeter after a shot (again will work itself out), and sometimes players have a frustration hangover from the offensive side, have their head down a little bit, and they relax the defensive pressure on the perimeter (happened to 11 in the first half last night and gave up a three). Other than that, there aren't many players with clear defensive issues that everyone is trying to help on (took a while the last few seasons to gel because people had to cover for KD or off the perimeter from the backside of the defense or help down low, so the backside three was always wide open). My concern for the team defensively is that for the amount of press we do and the length of the team, single digit turnovers shouldn't happen. That should (and needs to) rise as the season goes along.
The offensive side is a little messy. Yes, we shot 50%, but we can't rely on Phelps and layups every single game. Lots of motion on the perimeter, not isolation but instead trying to create motion in order to allow individuals to drive. Phelps is the only guy who has shown the ability to create a shot for himself individually and finish a jumper. Everyone else is layups. I'm concerned that we don't see any inside out play, because that would help us get some open threes. Jank relied on ball movement, shooting the three, and crashing the offensive boards - we saw none of that last night. A little surprising that we don't try to hit the offensive boards more with our length. Assist ratio is going to be a lot different from the LB and Jank years if this is the offense we are going to run. Anyway, I think it is going to be messy for a while on the offensive side, and I am really concerned about our lack of three point shooting. Zero corner threes, it is just not clean on the offensive end.
Overall, I think we are really going to struggle early. The offensive side is going to get shut down by good teams, and then we will press too hard and turn the ball over. There might be some ugly games this next month, starting with the next game at Dayton. I'd set expectations low early on and hope that the team comes together in late december at the Hawaii tournament right before conference starts.
Going down the roster:
- Koulibaly - shows some good length and quickness, and great to have another point guard. I'm surprised that he struggled defensively after hearing all the hype. Might not have the speed to keep up with the smaller, shifty guards. On the offensive side, can run the offense, but not a threat to shoot at all. Just will be a backup point.
- Phelps - looks incredible. Obviously put a lot of work into his shot, and has shown in two games that he is willing to take the game over when he needs to. Great size, good defender. Clearly the best player on the team and will be in the running for player of the year in conference. He looks like an NBA guy.
- Jalen Smith - His game is the set three, and this offense isn't going to create it for him. Still very good on defense, but he will be ineffective on the offensive end until they start kicking it out or play an inside outside game.
- Todo - Great shot, improved defense, and has now shown the ability to drive to the basket. Really like how his game has improved.
- Wright - didn't play much, and really struggled defensively in his minutes. He has some work to do on that side of the ball. Also may be struggling with not being "the man" on the team. I would expect improvement over time.
- Nutall - Good defender, trying to be a leader. Can finish at the hoop and score, but still not aggressive enough. Has a good three point shot when he gets set, but on the move it isn't good. Doesn't have a mid-range game. Another player where the lack of ball movement is going to impact his offensive effectiveness, because he is forcing threes while moving.
- Williamson - An athlete. Nice length, solid defensively. Defensive focus lapses when he gets frustrated on the offensive end. You can tell he was mentally worn out at Louisville and needs to get that confidence back. When he plays aggressively, he is a fantastic rebounder. Just needs an aggressive mindset more of the time. On the offensive side, will be like Jarray Foster with the backcuts, but without the three point shooting.
- Njie - shows some good length, but is not quite caught up to the rest of the team on either side of the court.
- Foster - not sure where he is, but we could use his athleticism down low.
- Ambrose-Hylton - just what you would expect from the Alabama program - good, physical player defensively, not much yet on the offensive side. A good rotation piece.
- Odigie - love the energy, physical aspect of the game. Not a great leaper. Not sure if he brings a ton starting, but if Foster were able to get healthy and start and then Odigie comes off the bench, that is a hell of a combo down low. I would say average center in the AAC as a starter, but way above average coming off the bench. Certainly an upgrade over Jasey.
- Agunanne - a little surprised he didn't play more. He looks better than he did last season.
I won't be surprised if eventually we switch to a bigger lineup:
Point - Phelps - Koulibali
SG - Nutall - Smith
3 + 4 rotation: Williamson (start at the 3 instead of 4) - Ambrose-Hylton (starting 4) - Todo (sniper off the bench at the 3)
Center - Foster - Odigie - Njie - Agunanne
On the defensive side, the length of the team really stands out. Pure man. If the offense was more efficient, then we would pick up full court more frequently. It will be interesting to see if we work in any zone at all over the course of the season. Because of the depth of the team, it is probably in our advantage to just run man and make the other team run until they wear themselves out, which happened last night. The issues that I see are off the ball defending (will work itself out as the team gets used to each other), blocking out from the perimeter after a shot (again will work itself out), and sometimes players have a frustration hangover from the offensive side, have their head down a little bit, and they relax the defensive pressure on the perimeter (happened to 11 in the first half last night and gave up a three). Other than that, there aren't many players with clear defensive issues that everyone is trying to help on (took a while the last few seasons to gel because people had to cover for KD or off the perimeter from the backside of the defense or help down low, so the backside three was always wide open). My concern for the team defensively is that for the amount of press we do and the length of the team, single digit turnovers shouldn't happen. That should (and needs to) rise as the season goes along.
The offensive side is a little messy. Yes, we shot 50%, but we can't rely on Phelps and layups every single game. Lots of motion on the perimeter, not isolation but instead trying to create motion in order to allow individuals to drive. Phelps is the only guy who has shown the ability to create a shot for himself individually and finish a jumper. Everyone else is layups. I'm concerned that we don't see any inside out play, because that would help us get some open threes. Jank relied on ball movement, shooting the three, and crashing the offensive boards - we saw none of that last night. A little surprising that we don't try to hit the offensive boards more with our length. Assist ratio is going to be a lot different from the LB and Jank years if this is the offense we are going to run. Anyway, I think it is going to be messy for a while on the offensive side, and I am really concerned about our lack of three point shooting. Zero corner threes, it is just not clean on the offensive end.
Overall, I think we are really going to struggle early. The offensive side is going to get shut down by good teams, and then we will press too hard and turn the ball over. There might be some ugly games this next month, starting with the next game at Dayton. I'd set expectations low early on and hope that the team comes together in late december at the Hawaii tournament right before conference starts.
Going down the roster:
- Koulibaly - shows some good length and quickness, and great to have another point guard. I'm surprised that he struggled defensively after hearing all the hype. Might not have the speed to keep up with the smaller, shifty guards. On the offensive side, can run the offense, but not a threat to shoot at all. Just will be a backup point.
- Phelps - looks incredible. Obviously put a lot of work into his shot, and has shown in two games that he is willing to take the game over when he needs to. Great size, good defender. Clearly the best player on the team and will be in the running for player of the year in conference. He looks like an NBA guy.
- Jalen Smith - His game is the set three, and this offense isn't going to create it for him. Still very good on defense, but he will be ineffective on the offensive end until they start kicking it out or play an inside outside game.
- Todo - Great shot, improved defense, and has now shown the ability to drive to the basket. Really like how his game has improved.
- Wright - didn't play much, and really struggled defensively in his minutes. He has some work to do on that side of the ball. Also may be struggling with not being "the man" on the team. I would expect improvement over time.
- Nutall - Good defender, trying to be a leader. Can finish at the hoop and score, but still not aggressive enough. Has a good three point shot when he gets set, but on the move it isn't good. Doesn't have a mid-range game. Another player where the lack of ball movement is going to impact his offensive effectiveness, because he is forcing threes while moving.
- Williamson - An athlete. Nice length, solid defensively. Defensive focus lapses when he gets frustrated on the offensive end. You can tell he was mentally worn out at Louisville and needs to get that confidence back. When he plays aggressively, he is a fantastic rebounder. Just needs an aggressive mindset more of the time. On the offensive side, will be like Jarray Foster with the backcuts, but without the three point shooting.
- Njie - shows some good length, but is not quite caught up to the rest of the team on either side of the court.
- Foster - not sure where he is, but we could use his athleticism down low.
- Ambrose-Hylton - just what you would expect from the Alabama program - good, physical player defensively, not much yet on the offensive side. A good rotation piece.
- Odigie - love the energy, physical aspect of the game. Not a great leaper. Not sure if he brings a ton starting, but if Foster were able to get healthy and start and then Odigie comes off the bench, that is a hell of a combo down low. I would say average center in the AAC as a starter, but way above average coming off the bench. Certainly an upgrade over Jasey.
- Agunanne - a little surprised he didn't play more. He looks better than he did last season.
I won't be surprised if eventually we switch to a bigger lineup:
Point - Phelps - Koulibali
SG - Nutall - Smith
3 + 4 rotation: Williamson (start at the 3 instead of 4) - Ambrose-Hylton (starting 4) - Todo (sniper off the bench at the 3)
Center - Foster - Odigie - Njie - Agunanne