2016-2017 Bracketology Thread

[mrydel]

I will call tomorrow and ask if I can join

[SMUstangs22]

I will call tomorrow and ask if I can join

I will send them an email and testify to your 100% no BS input

[Mexmustang]

"This has been a constant concern. How do we get a rep on the committee"

Stop firing them...

[LA_Mustang]

I will call tomorrow and ask if I can join

Please don't let this interfere with your WDNWHA committee duties.

[CA Mustang]

AP rankings should be one data point considered, it is a valid gauge of the eye test and momentum. They should refine it by throwing out high and low votes that suggest ignorance or bias. If you are ranked in the AP top 20 and also have have a top 20 RPI, you just shouldn't be shafted with a worse seed than a 5.

This doesn't make sense. You can't claim AP rankings are a credible resource when on this same site, we have threads running into the tens of pages showing how AP voters make mistakes, omit schools and/or simply don't watch all of the teams under consideration for the top 25. Rankings are okay for talking points, but they aren't qualified to be used to seed teams in the NCAA tournament.

The bottom line is we don't have anything really bad on our resume but we don't have anything really good either. Very hard to imagine getting a 4 out of that, but a 5 if we run the table is very realistic.

My exact point. Seeking a top 4 seed without any top quality wins is a bit too much for any school.

[1983 Cotton Bowl]

I don't put much stock in the AP poll. It's nice, because it makes scrolling for SMU scores on Espn.com a lot quicker. But as long as the team keeps winning, I'm not too worried about where we are in the poll.

[PonyLawExpress]

Our seed range seems pretty firm in the 5-7 range, unless we lost 2-3 games. If we win out I could see us getting a 5 seed. Could see us getting docked, but I think a 5-seed would be very likely for a 30-4 team and adding another top 50 and top 100 win in the conference tourney. If we lose in the championship (maybe semi's) I would expect a 6 seed being 29-5 and conference champions. If we lose a regular season game and a conference championship or semi's game or lose to a sub-100 team could see us fall to a 7.

A 6 seed seems the most likely.

[LA_Mustang]

I don't put much stock in the AP poll. It's nice, because it makes scrolling for SMU scores on Espn.com a lot quicker. But as long as the team keeps winning, I'm not too worried about where we are in the poll.

I don't understand this way of thinking. Rankings are everything in terms of promotion and coverage. We live in a social media world. Kids, recruits and fans constantly consume what is posted on social media, and outlets like ESPN, CBS, BR....all comment and report on teams who are ranked. The higher you're ranked, the more coverage you receive.

I get that at the end of the day, wins are what count but public perception is very important when building a brand. Rankings and social media are a huge part of that.

[Harry0569]

https://thepowerrank.com/ncaa-tournament-predictions/

From Ed Feng at The Power Rank:

Are you ready for some March Madness? With the tournament only weeks away, it's time to start handicapping the field.

Based on ESPN's bracket projection, I calculated the win probability for each team through each round of the tournament. These calculations depend on my college basketball team rankings.

You can play with the results in this interactive visual.

Despite their loss to BYU, Gonzaga still had the largest win probability at almost 33%. No other team cracked 10%.

There are many things to like about Gonzaga. They're ranked 5th and 1st in my offense and defense numbers respectively, which come from points per possession adjusted for strength of schedule.

However, they couldn't crack the top 10 in either preseason poll, a surprisingly powerful predictor of tournament success. This isn't one of Mark Few's most talented teams, as it's unlikely any player gets drafted in the first round of the NBA draft.

I like this Zags teams, but not at 33% to win this tournament.

[Harry0569]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

SMU took longer to lock in than its actual performance on the court should have allowed. Which is to say: This team is so much better than its nitty-gritty sheet. The Mustangs are top-20 in adjusted efficiency margin and BPI; they have the American's most potent offense; they trail only Cincinnati on the defensive end. Semi Ojeleye, who might be the most slept-on star in college hoops, shoots 41.1 percent from 3-point territory, averages 18.2 points, 6.6 rebounds and 1.3 assists for one of the slowest teams in the country. (Sophomore guard Shake Milton is also quietly having a huge season.) The Mustangs' early losses to Michigan, USC and Boise State, lack of eye-popping wins, and the dearth of elite competition in the American, allowed them to skate by unnoticed for months. After 20 wins in 21 games, though, there's no chance they'll miss the tournament. Lock 'em in -- and pray they don't show up in your favorite team's path through the bracket.

[Harry0569]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... final-four

14. SMU Mustangs
More people should talk about Semi Ojeleye and SMU. The Mustangs have won 25 games. But that record was amassed against a strength of schedule ranked 78th by ESPN's Basketball Power Index in a conference ranked seventh. They've won just two games (Cincinnati, Houston) against opponents ranked in the top 40 of the BPI. Can they handle elite teams for three weeks in the NCAA tournament?

[SMUstangs22]

That would be 3 top 40 wins. Cincy, @UH, UH

[Terry Webster]

Daily Bracketology still has us as a 4 seed.

[Harry0569]

http://www.foxsports.com/college-basket ... del-022817

5 seed vs. UTA in Greenville. Would play Duke/Nevada next. Then out west to play Zags in San Jose

[mrydel]

http://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/story/bracket-watch-projections-predictions-bracketology-ncaa-tournament-mandel-022817

5 seed vs. UTA in Greenville. Would play Duke/Nevada next. Then out west to play Zags in San Jose

I would like this other than the historical 5/12 upsets. Think I would rather be a 6.