Football this fall? No way

[ponyboy]

Well, you all may be right. Let's hope not.

[Charleston Pony]

The really sad part of this country's fight against this virus is that it has become political. No doubt in my mind that if Trump had fully supported his medical experts and called for everyone to wear masks, it would be the Democrats who would cry about his trying to "control" them and infringing on their "freedoms". And let's not forget that when Trump was being blamed (in hindsight) for not acting quickly enough, he was undoubtedly distracted by an obsession to impeach him...even when everyone knew it was a waste of time and that a Republican Senate was never going to convict.

I hope this doesn't sound like I'm a big fan of Trump's...because I'm not. I'm just one of those "middle of the roaders" who is really disappointed with those who are extreme left or right, which far too many in this country have become.

[mustangxc]

The really sad part of this country's fight against this virus is that it has become political. No doubt in my mind that if Trump had fully supported his medical experts and called for everyone to wear masks, it would be the Democrats who would cry about his trying to "control" them and infringing on their "freedoms". And let's not forget that when Trump was being blamed (in hindsight) for not acting quickly enough, he was undoubtedly distracted by an obsession to impeach him...even when everyone knew it was a waste of time and that a Republican Senate was never going to convict.

I hope this doesn't sound like I'm a big fan of Trump's...because I'm not. I'm just one of those "middle of the roaders" who is really disappointed with those who are extreme left or right, which far too many in this country have become.

+1

[malonish]

I too can only focus on one thing at a time but I don't sign up for jobs that require 2+ important trains of thought.

Impeachment used as an excuse for allowing COVID to run rampant is silly both on its face and upon deeper investigation. But a bow on that and leave it. We all know more time was spent on golf than impeachment defense anyway

[ponyboy]

Agreed about the divisive political environment. It gets to the point where it's impossible to have a conversation.

Can we just remember a couple of things, please?

1. COVID-19 is an odd disease. It does seem that most people who catch it experience either no symptoms or relatively mild ones.

2. Case numbers, i.e. positive COVID-19 tests, are in and of themselves troublesome from a statistical sampling perspective. So when you hear that cases are up, or cases are down, take that with a grain of salt. Our best data sources are hospitalizations and deaths.

So, yeah, we might see a spike in cases from kids going back to school. It is an open question whether we will see a corresponding material increase in hospitalizations and deaths for school aged kids.

[mustangxc]

Agreed about the divisive political environment. It gets to the point where it's impossible to have a conversation.

Can we just remember a couple of things, please?

1. COVID-19 is an odd disease. It does seem that most people who catch it experience either no symptoms or relatively mild ones.

2. Case numbers, i.e. positive COVID-19 tests, are in and of themselves troublesome from a statistical sampling perspective. So when you hear that cases are up, or cases are down, take that with a grain of salt. Our best data sources are hospitalizations and deaths.

So, yeah, we might see a spike in cases from kids going back to school. It is an open question whether we will see a corresponding material increase in hospitalizations and deaths for school aged kids.

The concern is not just hospitalizations and deaths for kids but overall. That's where the focus should be.

[ponyboy]

Let's walk through this logically:

If a kid with COVID-19 isn't going to die or be hospitalized, then they're either:
a) in the majority who, at worst, exhibit mild symptoms; or
b) have an illness that isn't bad enough for them to go to the hospital.

Even if we had good data for those kids, which we do not, I'm not really worried about them. I'm worried about the serious cases. And we decidedly do have good data for them.

[mustangxc]

I wasn't referring to kids, referring to all ages. Overall is 0-100+ age group as in everyone.

[ponyboy]

Ah, good point.

[ponyboy]

Daily death rate has been wildly erratic, but averaging about 200. Good news based on projections.

[JasonB]

All the data is weird right now, so it is impossible to analyze at a micro level. At a macro level, however, it is very clear that the change in policy July 2 lead to a sharp decrease in cases, then a decrease in hospitalization, and then over the past week we have seen deaths decline.

Mask up and stay outside.

The nice thing about the masks and some of the restrictions is that it should allow us to localize any school-based outbreaks. You might see outbreaks at particular schools in Plano, for example, but they won't trek to other schools or other districts because of the limited intermingling. Even if the resumption of school at SMU causes a breakout in the bubble, it hopefully won't spread out to the greater UP or Dallas populations because of the restrictions in place.

[ponyboy]

Interesting point about SMU. Though our student body is relatively small, we've got a very diverse student population geographically.

[JasonB]

Out of curiosity, now that we all know Trump was lying when he played down the severity of the virus, does that take away the motivation to prove that the virus isn't serious?

[ponyboy]

Not that I really care -- I hate politics -- but I'll bite. How did Trump play down the severity of the virus?

[ponyboy]

Here are my latest graphs, by the way. Source CDC. Estimates in graphs two and three are based on the assumption that one person in ten who contracts COVID-19 actually goes out and gets tested.