My 2025 Preview

[JasonB]

I've got some time this weekend, so thought I would drop a preview of the 2025 season... but starting with a review of 2024 for some context.

2024 Review
Obviously, last year was awesome. But I thought it was worth diving into the efficiency data from last season so that we could really understand what happened and what made us great.

It can't be overstated enough how far the defense carried the team. The defense was number 1 in the ACC in total and rush efficiency, number 2 in pass efficiency, number 1 in success rates. We were only 4th in explosiveness, but that is mostly a factor of how aggressive we were able to play. SMU had an elite defensive line, elite safeties (including NB), and the linebackers were very above average. The weakest part of the defensive was at outside corner, but that was covered up by the tremendous line play.

It is important to remember that the offense was inconsistent at times. 7th in the league in total efficiency (3rd in pass, 10th in run). 7th in success rate. What made it a more effective offense than those underlying numbers would indicate, was that we were first in the league in explosives. Overall, it tells you that we had great play at QB and the skill positions, but the OL was kind of average overall. We were kind of the opposite team as Clemson, which was 3rd in the league on offense overall (behind Miami and Louisville), but was only 13th in explosiveness.

Diving in deeper, if I highlight the games we struggled in - BYU, Duke, and Clemson - the defense wasn't an issue at all. In those three games, the running game wasn't very efficient, and they were by far and away our least explosive games of the season, by a very large margins. We were a team that relied on explosive plays, and when you took that away, we had to settle for field goals. The running game in particular struggled with efficiency post Stanford as well (Except for the Pitt game). Losing the vertical threat of RJ allowed teams to play closer to the box and focus more on Brashard.

In order for SMU to replicate the success of 2024, assuming the defense is going to take a little bit of a step back, the key is going to be improving the offensive consistency while retaining the explosiveness of the offensive unit. Let's explore whether that is going to happen.

OFFENSE

QB - First off, Jennings looks amazing. He has added weight, arm strength, speed. He throws from multiple arm angles casually, it is Mahomes-like. As long as he stays healthy, we will see an upgrade in production. Last year, however, we had depth. Stone could step in. Luster was very capable as a backup. This year, Ty has a very high ceiling, but isn't ready yet. TVD isn't going to see the field this season. It is important to recognize he wants a medical redshirt, so he can't play in any games at all this season to preserve it. The only way he would play is if Jennings gets hurt in the first half of the year and they need him to play for the last 6 games. Otherwise, he is going to preserve his chance at one last shot at college football next season. From a roster quality perspective, Preston was the highest rated recruit at QB, but both Ty and TVD are rated significantly higher than Aaronson, Luster or Jennings, and both would be considered top level QB recruits coming out of HS.

RB - The loss of Brashard in terms of explosives is huge. Running behind an average line, he generated a ton of plays in both the running and passing games. That said, the depth wasn't there. Camar and Rooster flashed at different points of their career, but never showed enough consistency to take us to the next level, and both went out early. LJ never stayed healthy and never showed enough on the field when he did play. It was all Brashard, with a bit of Junior trying to spell him. Part of the drop in running efficiency after Stanford was because teams started to load the box up without RJ to stretch the field, but part of it was also just Brashard wearing down because he put out a super human effort last season.

This year, SMU is more about working as a committee. It is worth knowing that Camar, Rooster, LJ and Brashard were all Elite recruits coming out of high school. Johnson, McFall and Green were all really good recruits, but weren't at that top elite level. Harden, the UCLA transfer, was a step below those three. In terms of absolute talent in the room, at least from a recruiting standpoint, we have taken a step back. And nobody has blown anyone away in camp like Brashard did last year. Chris Johnson has had a lot of praise coming out of camp because of his elite speed... I am worried about his ability to run in between the tackles, and he seemed hesitant to do it when I watched in spring and fall camp. Harden looks better than anticipated - he obviously produced on a bad UCLA team last year, but he seems to not only have the size, but he has more speed than LJ did and is an upgrade from him as a power back. McFall flashed last year in the games he played early as well as all through fall camp. He is really nimble and has a lot of shift. They guy who really flashed when I saw him was Green. He looks like a complete back - speed, agility, physicality. He has been banged up the last week or two, and hopefully that isn't serious, but he is the guy I really think looked like the future. I WANT CJ to succeed, and I WANT McFall to develop into an every down back, but Green is the guy I have my eye on, and if the other two don't stand out against TCU and Baylor, we could see some changes during the bye of the TCU game. Overall, the OL is upgraded, so our rushing consistency numbers should improve. But we need someone to step up and be "that guy" from an explosives standpoint in order for us to take a step forward on offense.

TE - SMU has, if not the best, a top 5 TE group in the country. We have 5 guys who can really play. I can't stress enough how important RJ is to the offense. His health is really, really important, because he provides that explosive deep threat down the middle that forces safeties to stay back and respect. It opens up the entire field for us.

Outside WR - This is an interesting position. SMU retains Mello and Hudson, who were our most talented receivers. But lose Moochie and Smith, who really brought a lot of athleticism, experience, and speed to the room. Cozart was obviously a bust. From a recruiting standpoint, SMU has absolutely upgraded. Mello and Hudson were elite recruits out of HS. So was Cooper, the new freshmen. Cozart and Moochie were both behind him in terms of recruiting quality. Brown and Robertson were both higher level recruits than Smith. So, we have actually upgraded the room overall. Honestly, I think Cooper, Brown, and Robertson will all end up being more consistent and outproducing the entire lot. But it is important to recall that last year, Clemson had two stud frosh at WR, and they really only started stepping up the second half of the year. It takes a while for new players to get in the groove, even when they are top end players. The expectation should be that they flash in the non-conference games and then take a larger role in the offence after the bye week after TCU.

Hudson has certainly stepped his game up. He is reliable and way more consistent than he was earlier in his career, and even early last season. He gets better separation consistently, and uses his body well. That said, he is NOT Rashee. Rashee had a next level acceleration, which combined with his size, strength and athleticism made him open on every single play, regardless of the opponent. Hudson is certainly our top receiver, but he isn't at that level. I would expect him to be around 50 catches for 600 yards. He isn't the deep threat, and his numbers bear that out - he was just over 10 yards per catch last year. And that is part of the issue we have. Mello is tall and lanky, but last year was more of a possession guy at 10 yards per catch. Smith and Moochie were the burners last year who spent most of the time on the left side, and averaged over 15 yards per catch. Junior averaged 15 out of the slot because of his explosive plays. But RJ is the only player back from last season who averaged over 15 YPC, and that is a concern. Mello is playing on the left, where he would be expected to stretch the field. He average higher YPC in previous season before last year, but it is going to be critical that he is able to do it this year. Singleton is the freshman who they were looking at in the burner role during the spring, but he moved to slot this fall. Isaiah Robertson is the freshman that is backing Mello up on that left side, and has exceeded all expectations this fall. He is strong and fluid, and I watched him make some outstanding catches across the middle. But he needs to be able to stretch the top as well, and we will see if he is able to do it. Backing up Hudson on the other side are Cooper and Smith. Smith is tall and physical. The first comp he reminds me of is Keyshawn Johnson. But while his length is a real problem in the redzone, I don't see him getting a lot of separation just yet. Cooper is the guy who is going to be an absolute stud. He has length, but his route running is fantastic, and he has wonderful acceleration off the cut which gives him consistent separation. He is the one that I see flashing as a potential NFL talent, and even though I think he is athletic enough to stretch the field, the reason he is on the right backing up Hudson is that he has the consistent ability to get open. The last guy on the list is Link Rhodes. And, honestly, I have no idea where to put him. I got to see him a little bit, but it was on his second day of practice. He has good size and the coaches talk about his speed, but I didn't get to see the speed. They have him on kick return, I know that. It is going to be interesting to see where they rotate him in - is he a burner on the left and you take reps from Robinson, who has flashed? Not sure.

Overall at outside WR, I think we could see an uptick in consistency, because we have upgraded the overall talent. But I worry about the ability to stretch the field, generate explosives. And I worry about one of our two experienced players getting injured earlier in the season. Next season, I think this group is elite. This year, I'm not quite sure.

Slot WR - Losing Junior is huge. I'm not sure how many people understand how difficult it is to average 15 ypc out of the slot. Plus the crazy athleticism to run the ball and run jet sweeps. There was a lot there and there was a constant potential of explosives. That said, SMU got super lucky in the transfer portal. It looks like we knocked it out of the park with Knight, who is super small. The roster says 5'9. Are we sure about that? He looks smaller than Junior to me. Anyway, he is incredibly quick and shifty and is open all day long. In fact, I think he is better in that regard than Junior. And he will do well on the jet sweeps. That said, I don't think he is quite as athletic as Junior and I don't think he has the explosive play ability of Junior. So again, we are in a situation where we aren't replacing the explosives. Now one thing that will change for the better is depth. We had nobody behind daniels last year. Goffney is going to rotate in quite frequently, doesn't quite have that same shiftiness to get open early but is a little more physical than Knight, and also I think provides more upside in terms of potential explosives. Singleton is running behind Goffney and is a speed demon. We will see if he plays or if they do their best to redshirt him.

Coming into the fall, I really thought we were going to run a ton of double TE sets with Hibner close to the line and RJ in the slot. And therefore, we wouldn't run a lot of slot WR out there. But the productivity of Knight and Goffney in practice is impressive. Therefore, I think the standard formation is actually going to be Knight and Goffney in one slot, and RJ/Hibner rotating in the other, with only 5 on the OL and a ton of RPO to pass all day long until the defense clears out the box. RJ and Knight are such matchup issues out of those two slots, that if we can just get one of the WR to become a consistent deep threat, the offense could really turn things up a notch.

Offensive LIne - Now the fun part. Let's start with what we lost. Osborne at RG put a ton into the program. But he had back issues, and as much as he had the talent, he didn't dominate as much as expected last season because of the injuries. Clark brought a ton of experience at center, but also missed a lot of assignments and struggled quite a bit last year. So, those are two starters who left, but they are replaceable. We lost Sparks who provided some solid depth at guard. Caleb Johnson also left as a heralded transfer from ND, but never really lived up to that potential and didn't see much time on the field. So, what do we have now? At Center, Bates will start. They tried him at RG in the spring, but he can't do what he needs them to do at guard, so he is at center. He isn't perfect - I have seen him get pushed back in pass protection (although he tweaked an ankle that day). But he makes all the right calls, he switches well, and he is going to be an upgrade over what we had last year with Clark, and he was also a higher rated recruit than Clark. Nichols is the guy to be really excited about. I think he is better at center, but he has been good at guard as well. He is the same size as Osborne, but moves better and is stronger. He was a stud recruit coming out of HS, even higher rated than Osborne was. He is going to be an upgrade at RG and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in all- ACC contention. Speaking of all ACC, Logan Parr is back at LG and is going to be much better than last year because of a healthy offseason. Backing up on the inside is Woods at LG, who looks really good, better than Sparks IMHO, Uter at C, who looks good as well and has improved his size since last year, and Anderson at RG, who is serviceable. Also, you have to keep your eye on Hoopii, who has impressed the staff. The depth on the inside line is better, and the starters are going to be much better than last year as well. Part of the reason for the inconsistency in the run game and reliance on explosives is when you have to run behind the tackles a ton instead of being able to get a push straight up the middle. Against a lot of teams this year, I expect the two guards to be able to handle a DT 1v1 with a small chip from Bates, and then Bates is up at the second level taking out a LB. A much more consistent running game straight up the middle.

At tackle, PJ and Byrd are back and look better than last year. But Chamblee looks way better and is pushing, and Zion is coming along. And Odoms is waiting in the wing. This is the best tackle group SMU has had in probably 40 years. What all of this depth does is allow you to push tempo. When you can swap in reserves and not lose too much - if you were watching the Iowa State game today, one of their players forced them to lose a time out by faking an injury. Those tackles aren't going to be able to keep up with what we are running out there. There is a lot of potential to wear teams out. Overall, I anticipate a substantial improvement in the offensive line.

DEFENSE

Defensive Line - The question here isn't if there will be a drop in productivity, it is more about how much. Last year's defensive line was elite. The individual players were amazing, but they also just fit each other incredibly well. They were also great recruits. At DT, we are losing Jefferson, out injured, who was a stud recruit at Georgia. JHH and Roberson were very good recruits, Spencer is about their level. Lockhart and Tank were solid recruits, and Lewis and Winslow were about their level. MBA and Webb, the starters, are well below all of them in terms of recruiting projection, as are Burris, Allen, and Spears. So, you can see how our more highly recruited guys are less experienced and not expected to start, and our lower recruited guys are starting. Look, I don't think DT is going to be a disaster. Webb was fantastic at Texas State, and has shown well in camp. M'Ba also looks good, and when I saw practice this fall, it looked like he might be the guy who takes a step forward in the JHH role. M'Ba - Spencer - Lewis - Allen is certainly deeper than JHH - Roberson last year. But Webb - Spears - Burris isn't what we had with Tank - Jefferson - Lockhart. As I mentioned before, the OL is better than last season, and while there were times the DT were dominated in the spring, they have been much better in the fall as M'Ba and Webb have gotten more into the system, Lewis has been able to practice, and Spears and Spencer showed up. But moving from elite to just ok is a significant change right up the middle. Next year, with Jefferson coming back, I think this unit has a shot to be really good again. But we will see a step back this year, and it will impact both the running and passing game.

On the end, we are also going to see some downgrade. Roberts was a amazing and Harvey was really good last season. We had 4 top level recruits who left, and they were two of them (Abiara and Obor never quite lived up to their rankings out of HS). Cam and Turbo come back, and both played well last season. Turbo was a solid recruit out of HS, and Cam wasn't recruited at a higher level, but has shown himself to be solid. But neither are difference makers at the ACC level. Walton, Wilson, and Lang were all above them in terms of recruiting, and DJ was an elite recruit out of HS. Washington was a DITR. Again, the depth here has a chance to be better than last season. But you really would have loved to see that DJ, Walton, Wilson, Lang group step up and challenge for starting spots. It could still happen. And I think if you can just get to third downs were you can put DJ and Washington out on the edge and let them rip, you could see this group cause a lot of problems. Again, next year, I think there is a chance for this group to become elite. This year, however, I think while they will defend the run well as a group, there is going to be a challenge consistently putting pressure on the QB.

LB - Losing Kobe and Ahmad is two hugely productive players leaving a void in the middle of the defense. That said, I think Kilgore is awesome. I've said from day one he reminds me of Bordano, and I expect to see that come out as an all-ACC LB this season. I think he is going to be fantastic. I'm a little worried next to him. We lost Zach Smith to the portal, who I thought had good potential. Barker I expected to come in and grab a starting role immediately, but I continue to hear about Booker, Miyazano, and others. Maybe that is good, because there is talent in the room. Miyazano was a DITR but can really run. Mark I looked good to me in the spring. Booker we have been waiting to take a step forward, and it seems like that has happened. Medlock was a highly rated recruit that looks better from what I have heard. But, outside of Kilgore, I just worry that this group might again be one more year away from playing at a high level in the ACC.

CB - We have certainly upgraded this room from a talent perspective. Jahari Rogers was a stud recruit but never panned out. I love what Crossley did while here, but he had limitations on the outside with the deep ball and got covered by great safeties and an elite line. AJ Davis was a lower level recruit. With Deuce, Barnes, Smoke, Gentry, Holiday, and Speedy, we have 6 players that were recruited at a high enough level to play in the ACC. Barnes looks great to be at practice. Deuce played really well the second half of the season. It is odd to see them both on the right, because I thought they would both start. Smoke is on the left, backed up by Speedy. Smoke has been really inconsistent. Speedy flashed in fall camp last year, but then didn't play at all, and has switched to the left from the right. I think we are going to see a better unit overall than last year... but it might be hard to tell because of a step back from the DL. I also think that things are going to potentially change here during the bye week after the TCU game if things aren't cleaned up. I expect that Deuce and Barnes will eventually be the starters.

NB - Another area where we lose a key starter. Sanders was fantastic last year, and when he needed a break we simply pushed Moses or McGill up to take his spot for a few plays. With him gone, there are three players fighting it out for the starting spot. Chambers was the starter coming out of spring, and then Spencer and JMJ are fighting it out with him in the fall for the starting role. Chambers was pretty highly regarded coming out of high school, but really started flashing at practice last fall. He didn't see the field much last year with a loaded room, but he brings a physical presence to the position. He has the slowest hips out of the three, and I suspect some of the reason he might lose his grasp of the starting role is that Knight is really going to take advantage of that weakness at practice. That said, he does have great length, so he can close space quickly, and he is a physical player. Especially with unknowns on the DL and LB, it might make more sense for him to start in the beginning of the season and let things play out. Spencer is the guy who has the best pure cover skills at the position. If we had the DL and LB room of last year, he probably would win the starting spot. JMJ is the best pure athlete of the three. Symons mentioned in a recent interview that Moses could play here as well, and that tells me that nobody has really made plays to stand out. With the depth we have at safety, if nobody steps up and really performs here, I would not be surprised to see Moses take it over. But I think that would end up being a post-TCU decision. This is another position where we could see the defense take a step back at the start of the season.

S - This is easily the best spot on the defense. NWO and Moses are one of the best safety combinations in the country. We lost a lot of experience with McGill, and his loss will be felt in the locker room. But the athleticism is fantastic, and we have recruited really well. Everyone I have seen at the position seems like a hit - I really liked what I saw from Dotson, Polley, Reyes, and even Muhammed and Jaylen Moses look good. Polley was impressive enough in the spring that it would not surprise me to see him be the third safety at some point with Moses and NWO, but again I don't think that change happens until after TCU.


PREDICTION

As SMU found out last year, explosive athletes and a solid line can only take you so far. Against defenses with elite athletes, such as what Duke, Clemson, and Penn State brought to the table, they can take away the explosive plays and force you to consistently move the ball. And not being able to control the offensive line hurts you in the redzone, which cost us the BYU game and should have cost us against Duke.

My first prediction is that SMU will have a top 5 OL in the ACC. I think Parr, Nichols and PJ are all going to be fighting for all-ACC recognition. Bates will be better than Clark. Whomever wins the job between Chamblee and Byrd is going to upgrade LT and perform better than last season. And there is just a ton of better depth.

My second prediction is that SMU is going to be a much better team in the second half of the season than the first half. Offensively, someone will take the starting role at RB, and the young WR will start to hit their stride. Defensively, the pass rush will improve, and they will make adjustments at CB and NB.

My third prediction is that next year, 2026, SMU will be elite on both sides of the ball. The OL will be great, the WR and RB room will grow up, and the offense will be amazing as a result. The best we have seen under Lashlee. And defensively, the LB, DE, and CB room are going to be ready to be some of the strongest units in the ACC.

My 4th prediction is that I think the SMU defense will slide out from a top 20 performance and down to around the 50 mark. It won't be a bad defense. It is just going to be "okay", with improvement in the second half of the season.

Unfortunately, I think this is "the year between". We have transitioned away from bringing in the highest talent from the portal in an effort to compete immediately in the league and towards recruiting excellent HS recruits to build a roster geared towards competing for national championships.

In the non-conference schedule, looking at TCU and Baylor.... looking at last year's data, the Baylor offense was a mirror image of ours, except fewer explosives. TCU had less explosives, but had a more consistent passing game and overall offense, even though their running game was worse. The big difference was on the defensive end, where SMU was much better. I think SMU beats Baylor in a close game at home, but then loses at TCU. East Texas, Missouri State, Syracuse, and Stanford will be relatively easy wins. So 5-1 for the first half of the season, but that Baylor game is going to be really close and 4-2 wouldn't surprise me.

In the second half of the year, Clemson is elite and that road game is going to be very difficult. Wake is a win. Cal and BC will both cause some problems in closer games, but as I mentioned before, I think SMU will be much better in the second half of the year than the first half, so we win both of those games. That leaves offensive shootouts against Miami and Louisville at home, both of which will be top 25 teams this season.

So, I could see SMU going anywhere from 7-5 to 11-1, depending on the performance of the DL and the growth of the frosh WR. At the end of the day, however, we have Jennings, who I think is the best QB we will see this season. Because of him, I think we are able to beat Louisville and Baylor, and finish out at 9-3 on the season. I was initially thinking 8-4 after watching practice, but after watching the QBs today with Iowa State against K State, Jennings is just way better than that, and he is good enough to win us a couple of games against good teams, even with some deficiencies in other areas of the field.

[BUS]

Again, thank you!

I hope the o can put more points on the board. Kj and better line play make up for d line. I want to see d line depth rise up and be a factor.

10 win season.

[JasonB]

Again, thank you!

I hope the o can put more points on the board. Kj and better line play make up for d line. I want to see d line depth rise up and be a factor.

10 win season.

It is absolutely possible that the RB room and the frosh receivers figure things out sooner rather than later to take advantage of the improved OL, and we are able to outscore Baylor and TCU. It's also very possible that M'BA ends up being as good as JHH inside, and Turbo, DJ, and Lang are able to churn out pressures off the edge. If all of that happens early, then sure, 10 or 11 wins are possible.

Even if all of that doesn't happen early, KJ is a special player, which I think gets us to 9-3.

But I think 7-5 or 8-4 are also equally possible as we transition to a younger group. Just enjoy the season, and know that next year is the year all of the awesome high school recruiting is going to really start to mature. Next year is the season SMU is loaded on both sides of the ball and ready to compete in the CFP and battle for the conference title. This year, we are a notch below. If things mature more quickly, that is awesome. But know what the future holds so that we don't all meltdown with losses early to both Baylor and TCU.

[highlander]

So you think we’ll be better next year even without KJ?

[fan]

Gotta figure we find a way to keep KJ for one more year. If he takes us to 11-1 that's gonna be huge and we win. If he take us to 7-5 he surely stays

[JasonB]

So you think we’ll be better next year even without KJ?

Either KJ or TVD are going to be around next year....

[birddogger]

JasonB,

Always look forward to your posts and predictions.

How often are you able to attend practices?

[JasonB]

JasonB,

Always look forward to your posts and predictions.

How often are you able to attend practices?

Unfortunately, this year only once . But it was the full practice out at the star. What I don't know about are injuries. Also, keep in mind that both M'Ba and Webb made significant improvements from the spring, so it is possible that they continued that improvement over the past two weeks.

What I would also say is that I love the ceiling of a lot of our younger players. Hawkins, Green, Cooper, Hoopii, Odoms, Spencer, Shivers, DJ, Walton, Iheanachor, Gentry, Holiday, Dotson-Walker, Polley. I think all of those players will play at a very high level. I realize that the hit rate on HS recruits is going to be better when you are recruiting at a higher level, but the hit rate from this staff on that recruiting class looks to be exceptional.

Finally, keep in mind that part of the reason the hit rate on transfers in the past was super high because we took a ton of "knowns" - players who were with the staff at Miami, Liberty, and Missouri, or people we actively recruited out of high school who wanted to come home, or people who were starters at a high level with a lot of tape who wanted out (Arkansas, West Virginia). We hit on a lot of undervalued players that we had special information about like Elijah Roberts and Brashard. This transfer class didn't have that same level of knowledge behind it.