Statistic fun with new coaches!

[Dooby]

There have been 127 coaching changes since 2001. 64 resulted in some improvement; 49 teams lost more than the year before; and 14 won the same number of games. Of those teams that improved, seven resulted in a six wins or more improvement. Overall, new coaches average .22 more wins in their first season than their predecessors. So for those predicting that SMU is going bowling, you might reconsider given how rare such a dramatic improvement is.

But then, I haven't mentioned the rather odd statistical anomaly....

Of the teams with a new coach following a one-win season, those teams averaged a whopping 4.28 win improvement the next season. That is right; one win teams that make a coaching change average five wins the next season. Also, of the seven one-win teams that hired new coaches since 2001, all improved by at least one game. Of those seven one-win teams, a majority (four) finished with winning records.

Here are the numbers:

# Wins: Improvement
0 Wins: 1.25
1 Win: 4.28
2 Wins: 2.29
3 Wins: -.57
4 Wins: .43
5 Wins: 1.23
6 Wins: -.54
Others: -1.28

Make of this what you will.

[SmooBoy]

I just printed it and made a nice paper airplane.

[RedTapestry]

Thus if one considers the 2007 Ponies a 3-4 win team that lost the marginal 2-3 games on account of becoming progressively demoralized as the season wore on...as I do...

you still get to the same 2008 answer: 4-5 wins.

[Cadillac]

Thus if one considers the 2007 Ponies a 3-4 win team that lost the marginal 2-3 games on account of becoming progressively demoralized as the season wore on...as I do...

you still get to the same 2008 answer: 4-5 wins.

I don't see much evidence of a progressive demoralization effecting the team in 2007, even when they knew the coaches weren't coming back. I really don't think that's going to be a problem with this coaching staff and their shiny happy approach to the program.

Then agian, maybe the kids will be so hurt by dissapointing coach Jones, that they'll lock themselves in their dorm rooms and listen to the emo greatest hits by week 7.

-CoS

[jtstang]

Has anybody figured out which game is going to give us our .28 victory?

[Dooby]

Has anybody figured out which game is going to give us our .28 victory?

Well, since NTSU isn't on the schedule, I guess they are out. Texas State?

[Dooby]

I just printed it and made a nice paper airplane.

Sorry I disappointed you.

[mrydel]

Has anybody figured out which game is going to give us our .28 victory?

Well, since NTSU isn't on the schedule, I guess they are out. Texas State?

Actually in the old rule book (it has not been used for many,many years but is still in effect) it says if you coulda, woulda, shoula won you get .14/win. We expect to have 2 of those this year.

[FWMustangGirl]

Has anybody figured out which game is going to give us our .28 victory?

Well, since NTSU isn't on the schedule, I guess they are out. Texas State?

Actually in the old rule book (it has not been used for many,many years but is still in effect) it says if you coulda, woulda, shoula won you get .14/win. We expect to have 2 of those this year.

I always thought you got the .14 for those moral victories.

[SmooBoy]

I just printed it and made a nice paper airplane.

Sorry I disappointed you.

Don't worry about it. It's a really nice plane.

[mrydel]

Has anybody figured out which game is going to give us our .28 victory?

Well, since NTSU isn't on the schedule, I guess they are out. Texas State?

Actually in the old rule book (it has not been used for many,many years but is still in effect) it says if you coulda, woulda, shoula won you get .14/win. We expect to have 2 of those this year.

I always thought you got the .14 for those moral victories.

Supposed to but it has not been enforced for a long time. If it was, we would have bowled in 2006.