The Dr Is In - SMU vs Rice

[ponydawg]

Dr. Bob has given me the opportunity in the past to set up future college funds for several local bookies.
He is giving out "free" analysis this week.

http://www.drbobsports.com/football.cfm?p=4&cid=5&s=5

SMU 35 RICE (-3.5) 34
05:00 PM Pacific Time Friday, Aug-29 - Stats Matchup
June Jones left Hawaii to take over a struggling SMU program and the Mustangs’ fans hope that Jones will turn around yet another program. Most people figured Jones’ run-and-shoot offense is capable of working right away with an experienced 2 year starting quarterback in Justin Willis, but Willis is now the 3rd string quarterback behind 2 true freshman. It’s hard to believe that a veteran quarterback with solid stats in a bad offense (Willis completed 62% of his passes and averaged a solid 6.2 yppp in his 2 seasons at SMU) would be relegated to the bench in favor of two frosh, but Jones apparently is planning for the future more than trying to win this season (he has named 9 underclassmen as starters overall). There is still hope for a turnaround this season, however, given the miracle that Jones performed at Hawaii. In Jones’ first season at Hawaii the Rainbows were coming off an 0-12 1998 season in which they averaged just 12.4 points with junior quarterback Dan Robinson averaging only 5.1 yards per pass play while completing only 46% of his passes. Robinson was Jones’ first starting quarterback at Hawaii the very next season and the Rainbow Warriors averaged 28.5 points per game and went 9-4 while Robinson improved to 52% completions and 6.4 yards per pass play. Robinson did face an easier schedule of defenses in 2000, but he still improved 0.9 yppp after compensating for the level of opposing defenses faced each season. Jones could improve the Mustangs’ pass attack just as much as he improved Hawaii’s pass attack in 1999, but I’ll call for no improvement at all given that a true freshman will be in charge of the attack. Last season SMU’s pass offense was 0.5 yards per pass play below average last season (6.2 yppp against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average team) and I’ll look for similar numbers at the start of this season – although with plenty of upside potential. Jones’ offense also tends to enhance the yards per rushing play numbers as well, since opponents are not focused on stopping the run. With SMU likely to throw the ball about 70% of the time, the Mustangs’ offense will rate about average on a yards per play basis but there will probably be a lot of interceptions thrown from a freshman throwing 45 to 50 times per game.
SMU’s offense will need to be explosive to make up for what looks like another bad defensive unit. The Mustangs allowed over 500 yards at 6.3 yards per play in 2007 (against teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). The run defense was particularly bad (5.8 yards per rushing play allowed) and the pass defense wasn’t much better (6.8 yppp allowed to teams that would average only 5.7 yppp). I do expect some improvement against the run, as teams simply don’t get any worse than SMU’s level of last season, but the pass defense looks like it could be even worse with just one returning starter and little pass rush.

SMU does have excellent special teams to rely on, as kicker/punter Thomas Morstead is a leading contender for the Ray Guy award after averaging 44.6 yards per punt and an outstanding 39.3 net. There is some uncertainty over how much improvement, if any, the offense will show in Jones’ system, but I suspect that unit will be much better while the defense remains poor. Overall, SMU looks like an improved team and there is a chance that they could get to 6 wins if Jones improves this team as much as he improved Hawaii in his first season there.

Rice is similar to SMU in that they have potential on offense to go along with a dreadful defense. The Owls went from 1-10 in 2005 to a bowl game in 2007 under new coach Todd Graham, but then stumbled last season after Graham took off for Tulsa. Current coach David Bailiff kept Graham’s system in place and has 15 returning starters, including quarterback Chase Clement and All-American WR Jarett Dillard, but the offense regressed slightly on a compensated yards per play basis, going from 0.2 yppl worse than average in ‘06 to 0.4 yppl worse than average last season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team). Rice did get better offensively in the second half of the season, as the Owls averaged 6.2 yppl in their final 7 games against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl to an average attack. An average attack in the defenseless Conference USA can do a lot of damage and I expect Rice to improve a bit on those late season number with Clement and Dillard both returning along with 7 other returning starters.

Like SMU, the problem for the Owls is defense. Rice allowed a horrendous 6.6 yppl last season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. SMU returns 7 starters and most of their best defensive players and the freshman that got a lot of snaps last season are now better equipped to play Division 1A football. I expect the Rice defense to be considerably better than last season, but they are still likely to be bad (I rate them at 0.9 yppl worse than average – the same as the SMU defense).

Unlike SMU, Rice had horrible special teams last season (3rd worst in my ratings) and they should continue to rank near the bottom even with a considerable improvement. Overall, the Owls look like an improved team, but they were so bad last season that the expected improvement still doesn’t keep them from being a horrible team.

Both of these teams are equally bad defensively and about the same on offense, although the Mustangs could be better if June Jones works the same magic he did in his first season in Hawaii back in 1999. The advantage in special teams is hugely in favor of SMU in this game, as the Mustangs are very good in that category while Rice is very bad. My math model would have favored SMU by 5 points at Rice had they played at the end of last season and my initial ratings for this season favor the Mustangs by 1 ½ points. The only reason Rice (3-9 last year) had a better record than SMU (1-11) is because the Mustangs were 0-5 in games decided by 7 points or less, including 3 overtime losses. Rice was out-gained by an average of 107.5 yards and 1.2 yards per play last season while SMU was out-gained by only 79.0 yards and 0.7 yppl despite facing a slightly tougher schedule of teams. SMU was the better team last season and they are likely going to be the better team this season. I expect June Jones’ pass-heavy attack to have a field day against a Rice defense that allowed a horrendous 8.0 yards per pass play last season to a schedule of teams that would average only 5.9 yppp against an average offense. Rice will get their points too, but SMU’s pass defense isn’t as bad as that of the Owls. I was ready to take SMU as a Best Bet here if Justin Willis had been named the starting quarterback, but I’ll just lean with the Mustangs with a freshman leading the attack. That freshman – either Braden Smith or Bo Levi Mitchell - could be just as good as I thought Willis would be and this will certainly be a game that I’ll keep an eye on for future reference.

[ponyte]

I think he has a point. The team with the less pathetic defense has a real advantage in this one.

[Dooby]

Mmmmmmm.......numbers.

[HB Pony Dad]

Some additional numbers:

College Football Picks: SMU vs Rice

http://point-spreads.com/college-footba ... -rice.html

Written by Matt Foust
Wednesday, 27 August 2008
College Football Picks


"Friday" night at 8:00pm ET, two Conference USA teams kick off the season with a division battle. Southern Methodist University will travel to Rice Stadium in Houston, Texas to take on the Rice Owls. The game will be June Jones first as head coach of SMU; Jones had served as the University of Hawaii's skipper the past nine years. College football picks odds at BetUS.com are favoring the home team Rice at -3.5.College Football Picks: SMU vs Rice

June Jones took over a bottom feeder Hawaii football program in 1999 and turned it into a competitive force. SMU officials are hopeful he can work the same magic in Dallas, where the Mustangs finished 1-11 in 2007. The team is returning six starters from an offense that had no problems finding the end zone (28.3 points per game) and seven from a defense that seemed to enjoy showing opponents the end zone (39.8 points per game allowed in 2007). It is almost certain that Jones will have the offense scoring and scoring frequently; his real work will be on the defensive side of the ball where Tom Mason will serve as his coordinator.

Rice Head Coach David Bailiff (3-9 record) enters his second year with the program. Like SMU, the Owls were very adept at scoring last season, but they too had trouble keeping teams from returning fire. Rice posted a stellar 31.4 point per game average but countered that number with a dismal 42.9 points per game allowed. The offense should be high flying again as they return nine starters from a year ago.

The key match up here will be the Rice defense against the Mustang ground game. Rice recorded most of their gaudy stats last season through the air. SMU showed a little more versatility in their offense by cranking out 170 yards per game on the ground. The Rice defense yielded 198 yards rushing per game last year. It will be interesting to see how SMU's young offensive line performs against the Owls defensive line, which will start two sophomores at the end spots.

BetUS.com's line for Southern Methodist University vs Rice University:

SMU Mustangs +3.5 (-110), Over 71.5 (-110), +150 (Money line)

Rice Owls -3.5 (-110), Under 71.5 (-110), -170 (Money line)

[HB Pony Dad]

And some more:

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Rice 41, SMU 35

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/628/story/571343.html

[Buckethead]

I am in trouble I thought the game was on Friday. It looks like I will be a day late.

[HB Pony Dad]

I am in trouble I thought the game was on Friday. It looks like I will be a day late.

It is on Friday and point-spreads.com is wrong.

I'll edit my previous post which was just a cut and paste.

[SmooBoy]

From all that think we will score in the 30s to 40s, who is scoring these TDs for us?

[J.T.supporta]

From all that think we will score in the 30s to 40s, who is scoring these TDs for us?

Not JW...I think we'll be hearing "BLM to ES" and i think McKinney will get in the endzone too

[ponydawg]

Special teams gets in the end zone too.

[J.T.supporta]

Special teams gets in the end zone too.

For a touchdown or do they give up a safety?

[Pony_Fan]

Remember when we couldn't even get a punt off - that was completely ridiculous.

[PK]

I want some of what this guy is smoking...

"The key match up here will be the Rice defense against the Mustang ground game. Rice recorded most of their gaudy stats last season through the air. SMU showed a little more versatility in their offense by cranking out 170 yards per game on the ground."

Why is he looking at what we did last year? Does he not fully understand that our new coach is June Jones?