TheSportsNetwork "C-USA: Underdog Heaven"

[ddderrius]

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnf ... id=4244737


C-USA: Underdog Heaven
by Jeff Frank, Contributing Editor

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - When wagering on C-USA games, it's best to stick with the underdog. Teams getting points in league play have combined for a 58% winning percentage over the last two years, the third-best ranking among all 11 conferences.

However, C-USA teams have not fared well out-of-conference, particularly against BCS squads. Last season, the league finished 15-33 SU and 21-27 ATS for a two-year total of 27-67 SU and 41-53 ATS.

The East Carolina Pirates were the only school to knock off a BCS club last season, defeating both Virginia Tech and West Virginia. C-USA ended the year with a 2-23 SU record while covering nine of the 25 contests. Over the last two seasons, teams from the top six conferences won 48 of the 52 games SU, with 33 covers, for a 64% ATS winning percentage.


PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

WEST DIVISION

6) SMU - The Mustangs have lost 21 straight FBS games with an 8-13 ATS record. They are also 6-15 ATS in non-conference games over the last six years.

Offense - Quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell and his top four receivers return in the second year of head coach June Jones' run-and-shoot. However, Mitchell led the country in interceptions last season with 23, and opposing defenses will be on the attack once again, especially if a ground game (346 total rushing yards in 11 of the 12 games) cannot be developed.

Defense - SMU ranked 118th in total defense (480 ypg) and 115th in scoring defense (38 ppg), and was also last in pass efficiency defense as opposing QBs (167 rating) ripped apart the unit on a weekly basis. Ten of the top 12 tacklers return, including the entire secondary, but the "D" will still allow an average of 30 ppg.

Outlook - The Mustangs have lost nine games by a TD or less over the last two years. A couple of those decisions will go their way this season, leading them to a 3-9 record with one C-USA victory.

5) RICE - Not only did the Owls win their first bowl game since 1953, they produced 10 victories in a season for the first time since 1949. Rice has finished 9-4 ATS twice in the last three years.

Offense - No other team in the country has to replace as much offensive production, with the departure of the school's all-time leading passer (Chase Clement) and receiver (Jarett Dillard), the top two running backs and their leading pass-catcher. The Owls will have the most drastic scoring drop of any team in the country.

Defense - Rice played most of last year without its top cover cornerback (injured in the third game), and its top two LBs from '07 missed a combined 17 contests. The defense, which allowed 33 ppg (a 10 point improvement), does have its top nine tacklers back, so look for continued progress.

Outlook - The Owls were the nation's number one turnaround team (3-9 to 10-3) but could do a complete reversal this season. Look for three wins, all in league play.

4) TULANE - Injuries to key offensive personnel and a porous defense resulted in Tulane's sixth straight losing season. The Green Wave is 8-3 ATS out-of- conference but only 6-18 ATS in league play over the last three years.

Offense - Tulane's season was virtually over when Andre Anderson was lost for the year in the seventh game. The senior was leading the league (and eighth nationally) in rushing at the time. In addition, Jeremy Williams (27 catches and five TDs in the first five) missed the final seven games. The Wave will have a sharp increase in scoring from its 16.7 average a year ago.

Defense - Not helping to pick up a depleted offense, the defense allowed 44 ppg the final half of the season compared to only 26 ppg in the first six games. Furthermore, the unit gave up 483 ypg over the final seven after allowing just 263 ypg in the first five. Tulane has given up 31 ppg or more each of the last six seasons, but '09 will be the year the number falls below 30.

Outlook - Eight straight defeats ruined a promising 2-2 start. The Green Wave will win five for the first time since '04 along with three conference victories.

3) HOUSTON - It took 28 years, but the Cougars finally won a bowl game after eight straight losses. They are also coming off two consecutive 4-7 ATS regular seasons.

Offense - Houston actually improved from 35 ppg to 41 without its leading rusher and top two receivers from '07. Quarterback Case Keenum was the difference maker as he led the nation in total offense with 403 ypg. With eight starters back, the Cougars will once again top the 40-point mark.

Defense - Only four starters return so it looks like a year of rebuilding for the defense. The unit loses 88% of its sack total and three-quarters of its defensive line and secondary.

Outlook - The Cougars were 8-1 last year when scoring 40 points or more, but 0-4 otherwise. An inexperienced defense will drop them down to .500 both overall and in C-USA.

2) UTEP - The Miners have not only posted three straight losing seasons, they are 2-10 ATS when favored since '06.

Offense - Trevor Vittatoe is one of three returning C-USA quarterbacks who threw for over 3,000 passing yards in '08. Both Case Keenum (Houston) and Austin Davis (Southern Miss) worked with 1,000-yard running backs, while the Miners' leading rusher ran for just 451. If a ground game can be found, this offense could be just as potent as that of any team in the league.

Defense - This is the area that must improve. The "D" has allowed 37 ppg each of the last two years and the secondary gave up a whopping 34 TD passes in '08. Four of the top five tacklers depart, but Braxton Amy ('07s leading tackler) returns.

Outlook - The Miners do not play Southern Miss or East Carolina, and they get Tulsa and Houston at home. Still, a 5-3 league record (with seven overall wins) will not be enough to topple Tulsa.

1) TULSA - The Golden Hurricane has won two straight division titles and a pair of bowl games, but is just 13-14 ATS (4-7 as a home favorite) over that span.

Offense - The Golden Hurricane loses 60% of its offense from a year ago, but there is tons of talent still available. One area to keep an eye on is the o- line, which was a work in progress this spring.

Defense - Eight starters return to a defense that reduced its points per game average from 33 to 28 despite losing '07's top four tacklers. This will be Tulsa's best defense under head coach Todd Graham.

Outlook - The brutal out-of-conference schedule will prevent Tulsa from competing for a berth in a BCS bowl, but the team is still the best in the division. Look for eight wins (six in league play) and a third straight trip to the conference championship game.

EAST DIVISION

6) MARSHALL - The Herd is 0-15 SU and 4-11 ATS in non-conference play the last five years, with 0-9 marks both SU and ATS in the last three.

Offense - Marshall's offensive production dropped to 20.5 ppg (from 25) even with eight starters back on offense. There is a lot of uncertainty heading into fall camp as RB Darius Marshall is currently suspended and there will be a three-way battle at the quarterback spot.

Defense - Only two conference teams allowed fewer yards per play than Marshall but the Herd still ranked seventh in C-USA action in total defense. This is an underrated unit that will keep the team in almost every game.

Outlook - Marshall was outgained in every single conference matchup last year due to its inept offense. Don't expect any improvements in '09 as the Herd win three games, two in league play.

5) MEMPHIS - The Tigers bring back the least amount of returning starters in the division after a .500 regular season. They are 19-10 ATS off a SU loss, but 11-24 ATS off a SU win over the last six years.

Offense - RB Curtis Steele burst on the scene with a 1,233-yard campaign on 5.6 ypc, but it's doubtful he'll be able to match those numbers with the loss of four o-line starters. The team rushed for -20 yards on 50 carries in the spring game.

Defense - With last year's run-based offense, the defense was on the field for only 60 plays per game. The unit clipped five points off '07's average, from 32 down to 27. Unfortunately, both tackles must be replaced, and even with the emergence of SS DeRon Furr, head coach Tommy West was not pleased with his secondary in the spring.

Outlook - Memphis will see its win total cut from six to four, three coming in league play.

4) UAB - The Blazers ended the year winning two of their final three games for a 4-8 SU record. They also covered those three matchups while going 6-2 ATS over the last eight.

Offense - UAB averaged just three more points per game than in '07, but the offense improved to fifth place finishes in league play in rushing and QB completion percentage after finishing last in those categories the year before. All 11 starters return, so look for the Blazers to be one of the highest-scoring teams in the division.

Defense - The defense is still a work in progress but the unit held its last three opponents to 14 ppg with 11 forced turnovers. Twenty-three lettermen return, a marked improvement from the 15 and 16 that came back the prior two years.

Outlook - The non-conference schedule (road games at Troy, Texas A&M and Ole Miss) will prevent UAB from its first bowl appearance since '04. Still, the team should win five games, three in C-USA, and be a great play against the spread throughout the year.

3) UCF - The last two times the Knights recorded four wins or less (4-8 last year), they reached the postseason the following season. In addition, they were 12-6 ATS in their previous two winning campaigns.

Offense - Last year was a mess for the offense, as leading receiver Ricky Ross was lost after four games and WR A.J. Guyton missed the entire year. True freshmen manned the QB and RB spots the second half of the season and the ppg average fell from 36 to 17. The Knights won't score in the 30s, but the offense is in much better shape in '09.

Defense - The good news: UCF was the only team in league play to limit opposing offenses to less than five yards per play. The bad news - the entire secondary, made up of a quartet of four-year starters, must be replaced. Still, the Knights have the conference's premier front seven so the transition might not be as difficult as one might expect.

Outlook - The Knights were much better than their 4-8 record indicated as they led Boston College, Tulsa and East Carolina at the half and were tied with USF. Unfortunately, they dropped all four games, two in overtime. UCF gets back to a bowl game with a 7-5 mark and a 5-3 conference record.

2) EAST CAROLINA - The Pirates could not sustain their early momentum, losing five of their final 11 games. Furthermore, after the early upsets of Virginia Tech and West Virginia, they covered just three of their final 12.

Offense - Injuries and suspensions crippled the offense. Projected starting tailback Dominique Lindsay was lost for the season in August and three receivers missed time during the season. East Carolina lost 19 fumbles; only Georgia Tech and Army gave up more. Nine starters return so look for an increase in scoring from its 23 ppg a season ago.

Defense - The Pirates were the number one defensive team in the league last year (21 ppg and 333 total yards). They ranked fourth nationally in red zone defense (71%) allowing an amazing nine TDs in 26 chances. It will be tough to top those numbers, but this is still one of the better defenses in the country.

Outlook - East Carolina will not sneak up on the Hokies or Mountaineers this season, so the overall record will dip to 7-5. The league title will be decided the last week of the regular season when the Pirates travel to Southern Miss with both teams 5-2 in conference play.

1) SOUTHERN MISS - The Golden Eagles finished up 5-0 both SU and ATS after a rocky start (2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS). They're 8-2 ATS as a road favorite the last three years.

Offense - Second-year head coach Larry Fedora came over from Oklahoma State, installed the spread offense, and the Golden Eagles averaged 30.6 ppg, the school's highest total in 10 years. Nine starters return including Damion Fletcher, who is already the team's all-time leading rusher. Quarterback Austin Davis finished strong, completing over 60% of his passes with an 8-1 TD/INT ratio in the final five games against the likes of Troy, East Carolina and UCF.

Defense - It took them some time to adjust to the new schemes but there weren't many better defenses in the country from November onward. The Golden Eagles allowed just 12 ppg and 254 ypg in their final five games after giving up 31 and 436 in the first eight. They do lose their two leading tacklers, but 12 of the top 14 return after just five of the top 12 came back to Hattiesburg in '08.

Outlook - They'll be no stopping Southern Miss' quest to reach the title game, the Golden Eagles win nine regular season games and the division title with a 6-2 mark.


07/27 11:24:31 ET

[Big Easy Pony]

I don't necessarily agree with their reasoning, but I think somewhere between 3 and 5 (if we get all the bounces) victories is about right.

[Stallion]

I don't think I've ever seen that opposing QBs had a QB Efficiency Rating of 167. Worse than I thought. That's essentially saying we made the opposing QB a Top 5 QB Nationally every week.