BCS "Upstarts" will NEVER play BCS Bowl Championship S

[ponyscott]

....It looks even more doubtful that Boise State or TCU OR any other NOT from a BCS Qualifier Conference will ever sniff the Championship Game...odds are 10% that Boise State reaches the game, EVEN if it goes unbeaten throughout this season. If Boise State is the ONLY undefeated team left in the BCS, its a 50/50 shot......a play off system if ever is needed ...the BCS is rigged (suprise!).....TCU has NO chance:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/18/sport ... leges.html


B.C.S. Upstarts Left Hoping for a Shake-Up
By PETE THAMEL- NEW YORK TIMES
Published: October 17, 2010

Ever since Boise State executed a brilliant fake punt to spark its come-from-behind victory over Texas Christian in the Fiesta Bowl last season, a single question has dominated the college football landscape: could the Broncos use that undefeated season as a springboard to crash this season’s Bowl Championship Series title game?


After the release of the first B.C.S. standings for this season on Sunday night, Boise State received its short answer: it has only a slim chance. The Broncos are No. 3 in the B.C.S. rankings, the highest any team outside college football’s six power conferences has ever been in the B.C.S. standings. But the number that will most likely doom the Broncos is their No. 7 computer poll ranking, which is destined to drop as they go through play in the Western Athletic Conference.

Boise State is ranked No. 2 in the coaches poll and the Harris poll, which make up two-thirds of the B.C.S. formula. But what makes the Broncos’ ranking so sobering for Boise State fans is that according to the calculations of the independent B.C.S. analyst Jerry Palm, Boise State dropped to No. 7 in the computer polls, from No. 2, after winning at San Jose State, 48-0.

“They have a 10 percent chance,” Palm said of Boise State’s reaching the national championship game.

Boise State needs a chaotic regular season, similar to 2007’s, in order to reach the title game. That season, Louisiana State beat Ohio State for the national championship to become the only two-loss title team in the B.C.S. era.

A similarly dizzying flurry of upsets would be needed because the computers are weighed heavily toward teams from the power conferences, Palm said. Because the computer formulas rely so heavily on strength of schedule, Palm said he gave Boise State only a 50-50 chance to make the title game if it were the only undefeated team in college football.

“Obviously there’s still a half a season to go, so anything can happen,” said Palm, who is the publisher of Collegebcs.com. “The best-case scenario for Boise would be to have what we had in 2007. I think Boise could beat out two-loss teams.”

Oklahoma is No. 1 in the first B.C.S. rankings, a nod to its strong early-season schedule, which included victories over Florida State, Air Force, Cincinnati and Texas. Oregon, which claimed its first No. 1 ranking in the Associated Press poll, is No. 2 in the B.C.S. standings. A strong computer ranking placed Auburn at No. 4, with T.C.U. at No. 5.

Palm said that as long as the odds were for Boise State to crack the B.C.S. title game, T.C.U.’s bid from the Mountain West appeared even more doubtful.

“It’s like they’re not even playing,” Palm said. “All the non-major love is going to Boise. Unless Boise loses, no one is going to talk about T.C.U. They’re in the same boat as Boise, just further back.”

The chances of Boise State losing do not appear great. Coach Chris Petersen has a career record of 55-4, and perhaps his four biggest victories have come against teams in the top five of these initial B.C.S. standings.

Petersen introduced himself to the country with Boise State’s tricked-out victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl after the 2006 season. His Broncos have also beaten Oregon in each of the past two seasons and toppled T.C.U. in the Fiesta Bowl last season.

The rest of Boise State’s games this year are in WAC play, where Petersen has a 33-1 record.

The WAC is actually much improved this season thanks to surprising efforts by Fresno State (4-2), Hawaii (5-2) and Nevada (6-1), but Boise State’s (6-0) biggest assets would be an undefeated record and disarray elsewhere.

Nevada’s loss at Hawaii Saturday night could be a blow to Boise State because Nevada was ranked No. 19. That means Boise may not have another team in the Associated Press rankings on its schedule. (In the B.C.S. standings, No. 26 Nevada and No. 34 Hawaii at least have a pulse.)

The factors used by the six computer formulas that combine for a third of the B.C.S. formula also hurt Boise State.

In its four games this season against teams from outside the six power conferences, Boise State won by an average of more than 48 points. (The Broncos have gone out of their way not to run up the score, too; they have scored only two fourth-quarter touchdowns in those games.)

But because margin of victory is not taken into account, the authority of Boise State’s victories do not matter.

“Margin of victory being taken out of the computers is misguided,” Palm said. “What are you going to do when you only have 12 or 13 games? There just isn’t enough information. Margin of victory is a legitimate stat in football. I think when you have so little data to begin with, when you take out something as relevant as that, it’s harmful.”

It is certainly harmful for Boise State, whose scoring offense and scoring defense both rank No. 3 in the country. But those units cannot line up against their two biggest obstacles — computers and perception — in Boise State’s bid for the national title game.

As Boise State enters the second half of its schedule, the Broncos need both personal perfection and numerous upsets among the other top teams for a shot at the national title. In a formula structured to keep away outsiders, there is no trick play that can change Boise State’s computer rankings

[Pony_Fan]

this crap has to change sometime - within 5 years?

[ponyscott]

this crap has to change sometime - within 5 years?

Who knows? Its all been manipulated for us.