FWST Calls TCU Move to Big East "Imminent" and "Probable"

[rich59]

The ACC, if they had an interest in SMU, would be a decent fit but, at this point it is hard to see them being interested. I believe that BE teams, playing in FW, will draw just as well as the teams in the MWC.

The sad thing about the situation at SMU is that TCU, almost ten years after the DP, was in almost as bad circumstance as SMU. In 1997, TCU went 1-10, with it's only win being against SMU. SMU was 6-5, having beaten some pretty good programs, including Arkansas and might have gone to a bowl if not for the loss to TCU. Since 1997, through 2009, TCU has won 110 games and lost 38 and gone to a bowl almost every year.

The DP did not kill SMU football. The DP put people in control at SMU who did not want a successful football program. TCU received severe penalties, (not as severe as the DP but pretty tough) when Wacker was coaching there but their administration did not allow the eggheads to take over and persevered even though they too lost their position in the SWC.

[ponyboy]

Agreed with everything you said, rich. And it was said well. But if you blind yourself to the TCU envy, you gotta like where we are headed. Again, I just don't see TCU's potential BE opportunity hurting us directly.

[EastStang]

Again, its how we sell ourselves now. We win CUSA west and go bowling again, and we are a hotter commodity than we were. But we need to beat Marshall first.

[Stallion]

ponyboy you've made your usual naive point about 5 times now. You seem to be the only one thinking it is a credible point but congratulations. If TCU is admitted to a BCS Conference, ALL SMU SPORTS would be at a severe financial, funding, competitive, recruiting and national Bowl and TV exposure disadvantage. A large majority of recruits will pick ANY BCS school over any non-BCS school. How do you think Baylor went from not being able to win a championship in any sport to now being one of the top athletic programs in the country with nationally competitive prrograms in just about every Men's and Women's sports. We are talking about 10s of millions of dollars in a short time frame 100s over millions of dollars over longer time frame. Here are some numbers taken from 2009 based on 2008 season indicating Big East had total revenue distribution of about 93,000,000. These numbers are increasing exponentially each year so I'm sure its outdated

2008 Season

NCAA Sources
Big Ten (31,215,888)
Big East (29,949,918)
ACC (29,422,225)
Southeastern (27,662,076)
Big XII (26,381,052)
Pac Ten (25,390,456)
CUSA (18,272,537)
Mid American (12,894,716)
Mountain West (12,448,714)
Atlantic 10 (11,416,499)
Western Athletic (10,434,348)
Colonial (9,884,737)
Missouri Valley (9,531,408)
Sun Belt (9,397,222)
Horizon (6,219,609)

BCS Revenue
Big Ten (22,824,992)
Southeastern (22,824,992)
Big XII (22,824,992)
Big East (18,324,992)
ACC (18,324,992)
Pac Ten (18,324,992)
Mountain West (9,530,000)
Mid American (3,010,000)
Western Athletic (2,490,000)
CUSA (1,960,000)
Sun Belt (1,440,000)
Missouri Valley (225,000)
Colonial (225,000)

Non-BCS Bowl Revenue
Southeastern (16,629,738)
Big Ten (12,588,072)
ACC (12,004,167)
Big XII (10,600,479)
Pac Ten (6,187,979)
Big East (4,875,000)
CUSA (4,549,000)
Mid American (3,975,000)
Western Athletic (2,750,000)
Mountain West (2,329,000)
Sun Belt (1,075,000)

Television Revenue
Big Ten (214,000,000)
Southeastern (205,000,000)
Big XII (79,500,000)
ACC (66,857,143)
Pac Ten (53,150,000)
Big East (40,000,000)
Mountain West (23,714,286)
CUSA (11,300,000)
Western Athletic (4,000,000)
Mid American (1,400,000)
Atlantic 10 (1,000,000)

Total Revenue
Big Ten (280,628,952)
Southeastern (272,116,806)
Big XII (139,306,532)
ACC (126,608,527)
Pac Ten (103,053,427)
Big East (93,149,910)
Mountain West (48,022,000)
CUSA (36,081,537)
Mid American (21,279,716)
Western Athletic (19,674,348)
Atlantic 10 (12,416,499)
Sun Belt (11,912,222)
Colonial (10,109,737)
Missouri Valley (9,756,408)
Horizon (6,219,609)


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[RGV Pony]

aside from [deleted] and lamenting our plight, what really is there to do other than turn in our Ponyfan cards and go join killerfrogs?

GO FRAWGS! woof woof woof woof

[Stallion]

Big East Projected Revenue per team $15.2 Million per year under a Big East Network Concept

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/101349094.html

[Mitch McConnell]

Just keep in mind that should the Big Ten ever pluck Pittsburgh and/or Rutgers over the next couple of years, that puts the Big East on shaky ground.

However, this could all be for naught if you have the eventual creation of 3-4 megaconferences if the Big 12 implodes like many speculate it will. If that happens and SMU doesn't have a chair when the music stops, NOT GOOD.

There be better be some proactive thinking going on at the Perkins Administration building and the Paul Lloyd Center.

[ponyboy]

Big East Projected Revenue per team $15.2 Million per year under a Big East Network Concept

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/101349094.html

BCS teams make more than non BCS teams. Good insight.

You've yet to show why this is a zero sum game, Stallion. And if competition for recruits is the height of the argument, pre TCU Big East move how often are we competing with TCU for recruits and winning? And how many of those will now be swayed by the TCU conference upgrade?

[EastStang]

Actually where those $$$$ come in handy is in the non-revenue area. Look at Stanford, Duke, and Baylor. They may not have rocked things in football, but cleaned up in other sports due to funding for scholarships. That is where TCU would take off if they got into the BE. The good news for them is that the BE is so weak that they will probably dominate it on the field as well.

[ponyboy]

If you solely compare SMU to a Big East TCU, yes this hurts us vis a vis TCU. But I have news for all of you who make that argument. If on field results are the guide, they are already light years ahead of us -- and ahead of the overwhelming majority of NCAA programs,

Back to the original point. The statement was that this hurts us. It doesn't. Our revenue won't decrease. Our recruiting classes won't suffer. It won't stop our upward trajectory since June Jones got here.

[leopold]

Yes, they are already ahead of us. But everything they have worked for thus far, facilities, coaching, financial support, etc. that has lead to their success is well within our grasp in the coming years, with the right leadership and luck. Moving to a BCS conference, however, is something you can't directly control, you have to position yourself (that's in our control), and hope for a little - excuse me - a lot of luck.

Recruiting, to a certain extent, IS a zero sum game. The fact that TCU and SMU don't go after the same recruits, by and in large, highlights the point that not only are they ahead of us, but we are going to have to go through them at some point in order to attain the level they have gotten to, just like at some point they will start to have to go through A&M, OU, and UT in order to continue to stay at the high rank they have attained this year. Since we would have to go through them, then yes, it could absolutely stunt any trajectory of success we have planned.

Membership at this point into BCS conferences IS a zero sum game. There are only a few coveted spots and they control not only the national championship game but the trickle-down bowl picture. LOOK AT THE OTHER THREAD ON THIS BOARD ABOUT THE SEC AND THE LIBERTY BOWL - THEY DON'T MAKE THEIR OWN BOWL QUOTA, BUT ITS C-USA WHO PAYS THE PRICE DUE TO THE CONTRACT THAT CONFERENCE HAS WITH THE LIBERTY BOWL AND THE BIG EAST. That's a 'zero sum game.'

Media coverage IS a zero sum game. Whether its the lead story for a local channel, front page on the sports section of the DMN, or the lead story on ESPN, there is only so much space for a whole heck of a lot of teams. I know, as a former editor with the DMN Sports Department I have sat in on those meetings. Both locally and nationally TCU is going to grab more attention than we are, and that will matter in recruiting, interest, and, I would argue, even personal financial support from alumni. This MATTERS.

Look, I'm from Memphis, and I took summer school classes at the U of M. I donate to that school just like I do for SMU, and I root for them when they don't play the Mustangs. That school has done a hell of a lot to try to grab the Big East's attention, and I admit to being conflicted about them moving on, should they ever get the opportunity - it would help a poor, some would say disadvantaged school in a poor, some would say disadvantaged city that I grew up in. But it would also hurt us - it would take away the premier sports team in our conference, their men's basketball team, lose a major media market for our already pitiful TV contract, and probably take away the best bowl we have, as mediocre as some would say it is. I would be happy for them but sad for us, and I can make that discinction, just like I can for TCU. It would be a zero sum game in aspects.

If TCU got to the Big East would that be a doomsday scenario? No. We would still be on an 'upward trajectory' as you pointed out. But it WOULD, absolutely, WOULD hurt us, and give us another hurtle to deal with. But your trying to say this is just jealousy. Some is, absolutely is, but there are tangible effects that will be felt in the long run, if not almost immediately - even talking about it shuts out talk of any possible success we might have. WE'RE DOING IT NOW.

If you don't believe me, e-mail a neutral sports writer or journalist. They will most probably back me up.

Okay. I'm off my high horse now.

[HB Pony Dad]

This whole thread might be probable and imminent if this were a truly done deal.

I haven't heard a "peep" about an actual invite being extended!

Anybody?

[ponyboy]

Recruiting, to a certain extent, IS a zero sum game. The fact that TCU and SMU don't go after the same recruits...

Non sequitur. It cannot be a zero sum game if we don't go after the same guys.

Membership at this point into BCS conferences IS a zero sum game.

Even if true, the pool is reduced by one. Now the argument could be made that DFW can only hold so many BCS teams, and maybe someone did make that argument above. I don't believe it to be true, but the argument could be made.

Media coverage IS a zero sum game.

You have a point here. I can see TCU's coverage increasing as their fan base increases due to the BCS affliation. Not sure how material that coverage difference will be, but you have a point.

[leopold]

Dude, I explained how that membership is going to formalize any gap in recruiting. It is going to become the difference itself in recruiting. That "I'm a BCS member and you're not" IS the conflict should they join. Get it?

And do you mean that BCS membership is "increased" by one? Considering there is only so much money out there, then yes, that means less interest in finding someone. That is, again, a zero sum game.

As a result, TCU isn't going to be like "C'mon in! Plenty of room at the party!" No, they are going to do what they can to make sure we don't get in to. Not Cloak-and-Dagger stuff, but they won't support it, and that's not bad manners, or envy, it's good buisiness, and I won't blame them for it when it happens.

[ponyboy]

Lol, think with me a minute on just the first point. Just humor me. If we're not currently recruiting the same players, what difference does this make?