Why We'll Get Better

[ponyboy]

Slow day up here at work

I am going to do a little exercise that to me makes some sense out of our current situation. Yes, I'm overgeneralizing and not taking into consideration schedule strength or coaching ability or inability. But I still think there's some value in this exercise. Here, let me throw some numbers at you:

Class/ Rating/ Senior Year/ Senior Year Team Record
98 80 2001 4-7
99 80 2002 3-9
00 50 2003 0-12
01 50 2004 3-9 (projected)
02 80 2005 6-6 (projected)
03 90 2006 8-4 (projected)
04 90 2007 9-3 (projected)

What I've done here is taken the recruiting classes for 1998-2004 and rated them. Then I list the senior year record, actual and projected.

In Cavan's last year in 01, we were 4-7 and had two good 80-level classes in the juniors and seniors. Bennett's first year in 02, he did have as seniors the one good 80 rated class, but had the two really sorry classes of 00 and 01 as juniors and sophomores. So we were 3-9 in 02. Last year, those two sorry classes were juniors and seniors, the core of our team. Result was an 0-12 trainwreck.

I am projecting a 3-9 season this year as the second 50-rated class, the 01 class, will be seniors. But backing them up (or starting ahead of them as the case may be) are the good 02, and excellent 03 and 04 classes. We'll continue to improve as they get some experience under their belt.

Thoughts?

[PonySnob]

Certainly one of the biggest things that has been lacking the last two years is quality play at the QB position. At some point, there needs to be some stability at that position. It will be interesting to see how much rope Bennett gives whoever is starting at QB - Phillips, Eckert, or Romo before he starts trying to play multiple QB's. In addition, the offense needs better play out of its WR's than what it has gotten the last couple of years. The younger WR's certainly appear to have a lot of potential when compared to some of the "smaller" WR's we have had in the past.

[Stallion]

Ponyboy's Model is built on a huge assumption that Bennett will be able to maintain his recruiting success with the program in the depths of an 0-12 record likely to go to at least 0-15. Who knows whether the program still has momentum but I would say based upon the response and recruiting (lack of) success reflected in the Rivals and the Insiders that's a pretty big assumption. Once again, it ain't easy turning around a program like SMU when the school makes it very difficult to recruit the top Division 1A transfers and JC transfers or cut other corners. Essentially you have to maintain the success in recruiting for at least 3 years and hope they turn the corner before the program loses momentum. Cavan's first two full recruiting classes fit Ponyboys Model perfectly and here we are at 0-12. My question to both the optomistic and the pessimistic is WHY DOES SMU TIE ITS HEAD COACHES' HANDS BEHIND HIS BACK AND MAKE IT SO DAMN DIFFICULT TO TURN THE PROGRAM AROUND

[Hoop Fan]

This year has to be better, we only have 11 games. I'm just being stupid, but last year lingers for everybody: coaches, players and fans. It wont go away until we make it go away and nobody on our schedule is gonna roll over for us. Having said that, I am high on Chris Phillips, Foy Munlin, Richul Massey and the young linebackers in particular. This will be a better season, I am confident of that. How much better will depend on how the Oline steps up and protects our backfield and open holes.

[abezontar]

I don't know that Bennett really juggles QBs that much. His first year he hung tough with Tate Wallis, until it was beyond obvious that while he had the heart, he didn't have the talent to be a Div I QB, then he gave the ball to Bartel. Bartel started last year and if I remember he had the job until he violated team policy or something like that and didn't get the start for the Neveda game. It wasn't until the whole intramural thing happened that Bartel was out for good and Phillips was in. Granted I wish Bennett had given more playing time to Phillips once he decided to use him (Tulsa game) but I really think he was just trying to protect him. I really feel that whoever earns the starting job to begin the season will keep it unless something drastic happens off the field or there is an injury.

[ponyboy]

Agreed completely on the momentum thing, Stallion. It will be interesting to see if Bennett can maintain the success.

Let's talk about your Cavan comment, that his "first two full recruiting classes fit Ponyboys Model perfectly and here we are at 0-12." You'd done well to have made the argument that, according to "my" model (it's actually mostly yours since you're the one who places so much emphasis on talent versus coaching!), Cavan should have done well his last year in 01 as he had those two good classes from 98 and 99 as juniors and seniors. But you didn't. Last year's 0-12 is a no brainer.

[Stallion]

yeah but there's a caveat to that equation which you always ignore-highly recruited players who quit, flunk out or transfer don't help your football team-and anybody who followed SMU during those years knows that was exactly what happened to those classes especially with the Corlin Donaldson, Mosely et al class.

[ponyboy]

Another good point. Does that really happen here more than other schools, though?