Wins this season

[GRGB]

The schedule really couldn't be better. I hate to predict, but logic dictates 8-4+ season this year.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ncaaf--fbc ... 7-smu.html

[Yahoo has us at 47...it's just one opinion. Other foes so far at bottom.]

Consider:

7 home games / 5 road, only 2 roads are out of state - UCF and TULANE.

4 games are against teams rated below 103, plus SFA (at UTEP, at Tulane, Memphis, at Rice, SFA).
That's 5 extremely probable "W's", 3 of which are on the road - leaving only 2 tougher road games (at Baylor, at UCF).

Of the remaining 7 games, we have 5 home games and 2 road games (only 1 of which is out of the state - UCF).

We need to go 3-4 to achieve 8-4 record, with these 5 home and 2 road games, and are currently ranked better than 4 of the 7 (3 of the 4 of which are at home):

49 S.Miss
51 Houston
58 at Baylor
69 Tulsa

09/02/12 at Baylor (FSN) TV NEW QB
09/15/12 vs. Texas A&M (FSN) TV NEW HC/QB/SYSTEM
09/29/12 vs. TCU (FSN) (Family Weekend) TV IT'S A HOME GAME AND TCU JUST PLAYED UVa?
10/18/12 vs. Houston (FSN) TV Ford Stadium NEW HC/QB/New WRs-
11/03/12 at UCF (CBS SN) * TV Orlando, Fla. ?? New QB
11/10/12 vs. Southern Miss (FSN) * TV New QB
11/24/12 vs. Tulsa (FSN) * TV Ford Stadium New QB

Can we squeeze 3 or 4 wins from the above grouping? Again, we are ranked slightly higher than 4 of those 7, and I assume that 2 more (UCF, maybe aTm) will be slightly better - in other words, we could lose to one or more of those four, but could probably beat one or more of the similarly ranked albeit higher-ranked.

Although clearly we don't know how our 5-star GG is going to play, all 7 -- at Baylor, aTm, Hou, at UCF, S.Miss, at UCF, and Tulsa -- start new QBs, and 3 have new HC's.

My analysis point is: Road games are hard, but 3 of the 5 are almost sure wins. Home games are advantageous, and we have 7 this year, 5 of which we are better than or very similar to match-up wise.

Thoughts?

46 SMU

49 S.Miss - New Head Coach / New QB / Backup QBs have 15 plays combined
51 Houston - New Head Coach / New QB
58 at Baylor - New QB (though significant starting experience), New RBs and WRs
69 Tulsa - New QB

103 Tulane
111 UTEP
112 Rice
117 Memphis

[AusTxPony]

I think you're right on what SHOULD happen. And your guess is as good as anyone's about what WILL happen, so... 8-4.

[NTXCoog]

[b]10/18/12 vs. Houston (FSN) TV Ford Stadium NEW HC/QB/New WRs-
...
Although clearly we don't know how our 5-star GG is going to play, all 7 -- at Baylor, aTm, Hou, at UCF, S.Miss, at UCF, and Tulsa -- start new QBs, and 3 have new HC's.
...
51 Houston - New Head Coach / New QB

Is a QB with 8 starts and 2600+ yards passing in the same system really new?

[SMU 86]

USM has a new HC as well. We should have no less than 8 regular season wins this year IMO.

[GRGB]

10/18/12 vs. Houston (FSN) TV Ford Stadium NEW HC/QB/New WRs-
...
Although clearly we don't know how our 5-star GG is going to play, all 7 -- at Baylor, aTm, Hou, at UCF, S.Miss, at UCF, and Tulsa -- start new QBs, and 3 have new HC's.
...
51 Houston - New Head Coach / New QB

Is a QB with 8 starts and 2600+ yards passing in the same system really new?

Piland has 8 Games Played 2600+ yards, 24 TDs, 14 INTs, and a 2-6 record (1-0 vs SMU) as a starter. I didn't say he was a ROOKIE, just that he was a new QB. He's about as good as KP was in Season 2. Still green.

The bad: The receiving corps is extremely untested; [b]none of the returning receivers caught more than 16 passes. The best wideout might be true freshman Deontay Greenberry, a four-star signee from Fresno, Calif., who originally committed to Notre Dame. The defensive line looks questionable, which will be magnified by the move from a 3-4 set to a 4-3 scheme. There is no proven pass rusher. Houston is looking for new return men.

[GRGB]

I think you're right on what SHOULD happen. And your guess is as good as anyone's about what WILL happen, so... 8-4.

Schedule-wise, it doesn't get much better (except unless we played easier non-conference of course). But road games are against the very weakest opponents, and we have evenly matched teams for the majority of our home games. plus extra home game. plus we catch a lot of teams with new HC and/or QBs

[NTXCoog]

10/18/12 vs. Houston (FSN) TV Ford Stadium NEW HC/QB/New WRs-
...
Although clearly we don't know how our 5-star GG is going to play, all 7 -- at Baylor, aTm, Hou, at UCF, S.Miss, at UCF, and Tulsa -- start new QBs, and 3 have new HC's.
...
51 Houston - New Head Coach / New QB

Is a QB with 8 starts and 2600+ yards passing in the same system really new?

Piland has 8 Games Played 2600+ yards, 24 TDs, 14 INTs, and a 2-6 record (1-0 vs SMU) as a starter. I didn't say he was a ROOKIE, just that he was a new QB. He's about as good as KP was in Season 2. Still green.

The bad: The receiving corps is extremely untested; [b]none of the returning receivers caught more than 16 passes. The best wideout might be true freshman Deontay Greenberry, a four-star signee from Fresno, Calif., who originally committed to Notre Dame. The defensive line looks questionable, which will be magnified by the move from a 3-4 set to a 4-3 scheme. There is no proven pass rusher. Houston is looking for new return men.

We're curious about the receivers, but not too concerned. Look at last year:
The #2 receiver in yardage and TDs only had 16 catches the season before, his previous best season.
The #1 WR in yardage and TDs, #2 in catches, was a former walk on.
The #1 WR in catches came to UH primarily for track, but UH kept a football scholarship open in case he wanted to do both.

Not exactly a stellar background, but they all turned out very well very quickly. The WRs on the roster now had a better high school pedigree. Let's just see how they show it on the field.

And the questionable DL, we'll see. We do return everyone from that DL which probably doesn't hurt. Losing the 2 LBs is the biggest loss on defense.

[DanFreibergerForHeisman]

Worst case 9-3.

[Grant Carter]

We're curious about the receivers, but not too concerned. Look at last year:
The #2 receiver in yardage and TDs only had 16 catches the season before, his previous best season.
The #1 WR in yardage and TDs, #2 in catches, was a former walk on.
The #1 WR in catches came to UH primarily for track, but UH kept a football scholarship open in case he wanted to do both.

Not exactly a stellar background, but they all turned out very well very quickly. The WRs on the roster now had a better high school pedigree. Let's just see how they show it on the field.

It sounds like you guys must have a great wide receivers coach to get those inexperienced guys up to speed so fast last year, I am sure he will do it for you again this year. Oh wait, maybe he will do it for SMU this year.

I expect UH will be fine at wr as you always are and obviously have some good recruits there, but the turnover in position coach has to be considered too.

[Harry0569]

It's time to take the next step. 10 win season.

[PonySnob]

It's time to take the next step. 10 win season.

That means June will have to beat more than one team with a winning record..................

[NTXCoog]

It sounds like you guys must have a great wide receivers coach to get those inexperienced guys up to speed so fast last year, I am sure he will do it for you again this year. Oh wait, maybe he will do it for SMU this year.

I expect UH will be fine at wr as you always are and obviously have some good recruits there, but the turnover in position coach has to be considered too.

No doubt Phillips is a good coach and great Coog. I wish him success no matter where he goes (except playing against UH of course).