An extremely early prediction of the 2005 season.

[EastStang]

I think the Baylor and TCU games will tell us a lot about the coming season. If we get beat badly in the first game (like Bennett's first game against Navy), it could be a long season. If the team either beats Baylor or comes close and follows that with a solid game against TCU, the team could have a decent conference season. Teams that will give us fits: Rice (unless Bennett has figured out how to defense that option offense), UAB, Marshall (especially if we play them in November). Teams that we will match up well against. Tulane, UTEP (lots of good JUCO's), Tulsa (some solid returning players), Houston (Briles has some good players) and ECU (Holtz has to fill a very empty cupboard). We might win 3-4 conference games.

[PlanoStang]

I think it is very possible SMU will win 3 games next year.

Assuming that is the case:

1) Coach Bennett will have been here for 4 years, having won 9 games and averaging 2.25 wins per season.
2) You would be hard pressed to assume he will recruit a materially better class than this most recent one, which Rivals ranks at #80, and, outside of David Allison, had no player receive quality offers from multiple BCS schools. That is 1 player out of 25 and is not acceptable if you want to compete at the highest levels.
3) He will enter the 2006 season with his last 3 recruiting classes ranked by Rivals at #76 (2004), #80 (2005) and #78 (2006, assumes the average of the previous 2 years).
4) For the foreseeable future, will continue to have momentum killing winless Septembers. Solution – schedule NTSU and Grambling and pray.
5) There will be more talk on this board about firing Bennett than ‘winning championships and going to bowl games’.

It is a shame really, because I suspect 90%+ on this board believe Coach Bennett has a true knack for evaluating talent and recruiting; I know I do. Score another victory for Ken Pye.

OK, Mr. Statistics, show us your calculations where the #78 team wins 3 games in the C-USA next year. I guess you've figured that Baylor, TCU, and ATM beats us.

Just how many games can the #78 team in Division 1a expect to win with an average schedule strength? What was our Rivals rating in 2003? Thought it was much better than the last 2 years.

If you can do those calculations, and show us all the figures, maybe we'll know how well Bennett is doing as coach after next year

[Horseshoe]

Wasn't our last win in the month of September the opening game at Ford? When was the last time SMU won 2 games during September? It had to be back in the days when we had a professional team.

After your last comment there, you may never again offer your "I [deleted] because I care" excuse. That's BS - you [deleted] because you get some sort of intelligence complex when you do. You are not a fan of SMU, and never will be.

[SmooPower]

I think we should beat Baylor and TCU in the opening two weeks.

Wasn't our last win in the month of September the opening game at Ford? When was the last time SMU won 2 games during September? It had to be back in the days when we had a professional team.

SMU went 3-1 in Sept 1992.

[OldPony]

Two wins. I don't find anyone on the schedule that I would call a sure win except maybe Tulsa. We are number 78 may be our battle cry.

[SoCal_Pony]

SMU is 13-50 during the months of August and September post DP. This includes a remarkable run of 3-32 over the past 35 games, with our only victories being against San Jose State in’04, Kansas in ’00 and Arkansas in ’97.

SMU’s record in August and September for the years 1972 to 1986 was 38-8.

Saragin had only one of our 2005 opponents ranked lower than us last year, ECU and when I did a search of 2005 preseason rankings at college football news, ALL of our opponents were ranked higher than us (we are ranked #102).

So there are no sure wins next season, especially road games…..Old Ponies should know better.

But since I value your opinion OP, tell me, if SMU wins 2 or 3 games next year, what type of recruiting success will Bennett have next year?

[Dooby]

Ugh, please. Sometimes this board gets overly pessimistic it is embarassing. The sense of dread is overwhelming. ECU was 2-9, people! Houston was 3-8! These are winnable games. I refuse to believe that this team is incapable of beating a team with a sub-.500 record. In my book that makes 6 winnable games. Note that I said "winnable", not that we are going to win them.

Our best recruiting class in years is coming into its own. The non-conference schedule is a little easier. We lost very little of consequence on eather side of the ball. We are in the second year of a new offensive system. We finally brought in some Juco position players, who at a minimum will add depth.

For the record, I believe I predicted 3 wins last year. Which, I guess means I am neither a sunshiner nor unfairly pessimistic. I didn't expect to beat TT, TCU or OSU.

Maybe I am nuts, but I think 4 wins is a mortal lock. And I am pretty tempted to predict 5. Nevertheless, the official Dooby prediction is 4 games.

[d_pony]

we will be greatly improved next year - we have a good solid qback who has an outstanding arm - our wide receivers are tall, fast and can catch -we have a solid proven running back with 2 talented but unproven running backs - with 5 jucos and our injured linebackers returning as well as our young dbacks coming of age -additionally nnabuife will be retuning to safety shoring up our dbacks and making us very strong in our dime package - we will win at least 6 games and probably 7 - no sunshine just facts --

[Dooby]

Saragin had only one of our 2005 opponents ranked lower than us last year, ECU and when I did a search of 2005 preseason rankings at college football news, ALL of our opponents were ranked higher than us (we are ranked #102).

At every win last year was against an opponent that was ranked higher at the time; even the SJSU game. Did you go to the coach's breakfast before the SJSU game? The staff was supremely confident they were going to win that game. For a 0-3 team coming off a winless season, I actually found their confidence unsettling.

Sagarin is interesting; even borderline useful. But once you get beyond the top 30, it is a joke. There are 23 1-AA teams currently ranked higher than SMU on Sagarin. Many of those are ranked higher than several bowl teams. No. 52 Independence Bowl Champ Iowa State would crush no. 37 Harvard. I am sorry, but with the possible exception of 1-AA champ James Madison, if SMU played any one of those teams, SMU would be favored by double digits.

[EastStang]

I saw JMU last year twice. They were quick, but no size. It would be one game where we would actually be bigger than our opponent. Ask BUS what that means.

[huntnfish]

how frustrating, we were 5-6 in 1992 in a MUCH better SWC and here we are hoping for a 5-6 record in much less competitive conference, and its 13 years later- it just goes to show you can't judge a recruiting class by what the coaches say- how many better than last year or ever classes have we had?

[DiamondM75]

But you have to remember, Cavan couldn't keep his players. He was always playing freshmen and sophmores. By the time they reached maturity, they had either quit football or transfered.

[Stallion]

there plenty of suckeage to go around. Tom Rossley is losingest Coach in the History of the Program. And in the prior 22 games before that GLORY YEAR with the 5-6 record he went somethng like 1-20-1. Don't understand your logic. SMU may not be in the SWC but it also doesn't have the SWC to sell its program which in the long run maybe more damaging in recruiting. Go check the number of Texas Top 100 players signing with non-BCS schools. Tom Rossley sucked at recruiting PERIOD. The only reason his record is not completely humiliating and ranking among the worst in the modern era of college football is because a) in 1992 he had 38 seniors most of which had either started or lettered for 4 years, b) Ramon Flanigan made something out of nothing in a punch and judy offense and c) he used the recruiting advantage of the SWC to beat horrible teams from lesser conferences. His record against former SWC teams and former Texas teams is simply horrendous. How many coaches can win 1 games in three separate years and 2 games in a fourth during a 6 year career and be considered a decent coach is beyond me. The fact that you consider the Tom Rossley the Glory Years of SMU football is just pitiful for both you and the university.

[huntnfish]

Stallion,

Once again your anti-Rossley bias comes shining through. I was just stating a fact of where we have been in the last 13 years and where we are now. I hope we do get better and these last three recruiting classes are as great as everyone has told us, if they are we should see results this year. I hope Phil Bennett does turn this thing around.

I did not want to make this a conversation about Rossley, but I will elaborate. Rossley did more with less (athletes, facilities, support, etc...) When was the last time we had a 5-6 or better season, with Rossley & Cavan with all of Rossley's players (while trying to keep Ramon from being the starter). His staff also had 4 pro coaches on it as well. You say some really smart things and then you say some really dumb things, I guess your schizophrenia explains it.

Forgot one other thing, FIRE JIM COPELAND, this I know we agree on!

[Stallion]

all you really need to know about Tom Rossley is that with his OWN players in his third, fourth and FIFTH seasons he was something like 4-28-2. He sucks-in fact it can be argued that his only real impressive season-the year in the SWC - he was playing with Gregg's recruits. If you can make that claim against Cavan the same can be made against Rossley. In Rossley's last season-SWC athletes SHOULD compete better with WAC players