Looks like Bennett's WR's were the best June had

[couch 'em]

Actually, production is not anywhere near non-Brennan levels. The lowest passing average from 1999-04 was 322.9 (highest SMU 282) and the only times Hawai'i was below 30 ppg (something SMU hasn't done) was in his first two years: 1999 and 2000. His two worst years at Hawai'i are just about even with his two best here--everything else at UH far surpasses his SMU output. Yes Colt Brennan was good at UH, but Jones also coached the all-time leader in passing yards in Timmy Chang.

No disagreement that the talent levels are not increasing. That's hard to argue against.

OK, I'm at the office, but I might as well take a break to answer this.

You cite total passing yards and clearly Hawaii far exceeded anything we have done at SMU. But that isn't offensive production nor does it tell the whole story. I took two semi-random years:

2001: Solid 9-3 year, QB Rolovich for most of the year, with Chang taking significant number of snaps also.
2009: 8-5 Hawaii Bowl year. Mitchell with a slight lead in total snaps taken over Padron.

Hawaii dominates the total passing yardage that year, 4461 to 3647, even with one fewer game. But that means little.

When you include rushing (I added in anyone with about 100 yards or more) you have Hawaii: 5397 yards to SMU: 4921.

Considering Hawaii had only 12 games to SMU's 13 (why no bowl for Hawaii???) you get H: 449.75 yds/game vs SMU: 378.5 yds/game.

In this comparison SMU only had 84% the yards per game of Hawaii. Clearly SMU isn't doing anything like what Hawaii was doing, right?

Not exactly. Hawaii took many more offensive snaps that year than SMU. Total yards in that case isn't apples to oranges. Let's look at how effective each offensive play was.

Total yards per attempt: Hawaii: 7.433884 yards/attempt, SMU: 6.882517 yards/attempt. That means SMU had nearly 93% as many yards per attempt. That isn't nearly different as everyone assumes.

It should be noted that Hawaii's scoring is far superior to SMU's. Hawaii scored 40.25/game or .665289/attempt vs SMU's 32/game or .584615/attempt. SMU scored 88% the points/attempt Hawaii did.

What does that say? SMU had 93% the yards/attempt but only 88% the points/attempt. This means Hawaii had a shorter field or just a better redzone offense. I don't have the data to say.

I can say that both teams gave up a very similar number of points, 26.5/game with Hawaii and 27.6/game with SMU. Not sure what to make of that. It may suggest, if you assume that Hawaii's offenses were weak as is the common consensus, and that SMU's defense is pretty good, that SMU's opponents have more potent offenses than Hawaii's opponents and that even with a superior defense SMU cannot out run their offenses. If, and that's a big if, that's the case, it explains why June was more successful at Hawaii - there weren't as many pass happy high scoring teams to deal with.

Bottom line is that SMU is doing pretty close to what Hawaii did with the ball, just slower.

I'll have to pick a more run-heavy year for Hawaii and try it again at some point.

[couch 'em]

Bump for gord

[ojaipony]

Thanks for sharing the numbers.

I wonder what the opposing defenses comparisons would look like (I have no interest or time to do that work).

My "gut" says SMU faced better defenses than Hawaii in the WAC especially if you consider us playing TCU, aTm, etc, every year. (even really solid in conference defenses each year like SoMiss, UCF).

I am NOT suggesting JJ gets a pass by any means - I am EXTREMELY disappointed in our offensively offensive numbers while JJ has been here).

[couch 'em]

Thanks for sharing the numbers.

I wonder what the opposing defenses comparisons would look like (I have no interest or time to do that work).

My "gut" says SMU faced better defenses than Hawaii in the WAC especially if you consider us playing TCU, aTm, etc, every year. (even really solid in conference defenses each year like SoMiss, UCF).

I am NOT suggesting JJ gets a pass by any means - I am EXTREMELY disappointed in our offensively offensive numbers while JJ has been here).

I think the numbers would show the defenses are better but it wouldn't be as easy to analyze it. I think if we were in the WAC 10 years ago we would be rocking but opposing offenses now score more and defenses are better at defending spread attacks.

[couch 'em]

I guess gord has no comment

[JasonB]

One comment I would have is that I believe the slower pace of the offense is intentional. At Hawaii, the pace was high because even if Hawaii's defense ran out of gas, June wanted to outscore the other team. He doesn't have the confidence in the offense to do that here.

From an offensive talent standpoint, I think the big differences between the teams are the huge Samoan offensive line he had in Hawaii that was awesome and the tall, fast outside receiver he always seemed to have to stretch the field. And of course we haven't had consistent QB play here yet.

[gord]

I guess gord has no comment

I've seen it, but such trivial matters as a job and a family preclude me from posting on a messageboard whenever I feel like it.

[Rebel10]

One comment I would have is that I believe the slower pace of the offense is intentional. .

Total garbage. He has had the same style every year he has been here.

[couch 'em]

I guess gord has no comment

I've seen it, but such trivial matters as a job and a family preclude me from posting on a messageboard whenever I feel like it.

You need to get your priorities straight. Wives come and go!

[gord]

You need to get your priorities straight. Wives come and go!

I don't know how it works in your house, but I'd like to make sure the first two words in your second sentence still pertain to me.

First of all, I commend you for actually using numbers, rather than lame, tired rhetoric to make your point.

On to your numbers: I'm not sure where you got your yards per play data, but according to official numbers on the NCAA web site (and doublechecked through media guides), Hawai'i averaged 6.49 yards per play in 2001 and SMU averaged 5.99 in 2009. That basically means the same thing: SMU's production is 92.3% as good.

Here's where I will slighty disagree with you: the difference between 6.49 and 5.99 doesn't seem like a lot, but when you consider that the difference between Hawai'i's average in 2001 and the No. 100 team in yards per play last year is only 1.49 yards per play (77.0%), we're not dealing with a huge disparity in YPP numbers. A 6.49 YPP average would have been 12th last year, a 5.99 YPP average would have been 36th.

Hawai'i scored nine more TDs on the season and accounting for offensive scores only, SMU scored 83% as much as Hawai'i did.

Defensively, in 2001 Hawai'i forced 35 turnovers and allowed 5.23 YPP and in 2009 SMU forced 28 TOs and allowed 5.56 YPP, so similar yardage allowed but UH forced more TOs.

Good use of numbers -- closer than I imagined.

Something I will totally disagree with is this:

I think the numbers would show the defenses are better but it wouldn't be as easy to analyze it. I think if we were in the WAC 10 years ago we would be rocking but opposing offenses now score more and defenses are better at defending spread attacks.

There could be better math to better explain underlying reasons, but seeing scores of 70-63 and 59-57 this year doesn't seem to me to indicate that defenses are better at defending ANYTHING, much less spread offenses.

2005: 3 teams over 40 ppg, 12 over 35 ppg
2012: 21 teams over 40 ppg, 34 over 35 ppg

I fully realize we're only halfway through the season and the 2012 numbers will drop, but teams are scoring today higher than ever. Are coaches more familiar with spread offenses now than 13 years ago? Sure, but I haven't seen anything that says they're any better at stopping them.

[couch 'em]

For record I used totalfootballstats.com, and took only the top players so the real total averages are not exact.

On the defenses and defending the spread - I would counter that with more teams with top talent running it, of course there will be more teams scoring tons of points, but would the average defense from 2012 do better than the average 2000 against the same opponent with the same talent level? I doubt it because the surprise or unusual factor is gone.

If everyone suddenly went to the flexbone triple option then rushing TDs would increase leave wide but surely Navy's success would decrease - the advantage of uniquness would be gone.

That doesn't even address the greater demand for a division of talent with appropriate skills.

[gord]

Just so we complete the numbers conversation, below are the Passing Yards per Attempt (PYA) and total Yards per Play (YPP).

Observations: passing yards per attempt has been about even (if not a tad better in non-Brennan years) at SMU (obviously discounting 2012), while total yards per play is below (but not by much) what he did at Hawai'i (again, non-Brennan years). With Brennan as a junior and senior, the numbers really stick out. IMO, the 2007 numbers would be even better if he played second halves in all of his games. Shows what a difference a great QB can make.

Everybody else can interpret the data as they wish.

Code: Select all

Year-PYA   / YPP (national rank)
2001-8.03  / 6.49 (7)
2002-7.40  / 6.68 (3)
2003-7.14  / 6.38 (8)
2004-6.92  / 6.28 (8)
2005-7.98  / 6.67 (4)
2006-10.05 / 8.58 (1)
2007-8.62  / 7.07 (1)

2009-7.77  / 5.99 (30)
2010-7.48  / 6.31 (19)
2011-7.51  / 6.08 (32)
2012-5.28  / 4.73 (109)

[couch 'em]

I'm really surprised how much the rank changes with minor change in yardahe