We can still win CUSA

[SMUSIC 07]

UCF is a tough game for us. The other teams I think we match up really well against defensively.

UCF is the only team remaining on our schedule that has a good (moderately-250 per game) pass game. As beat up as our secondary is this is our big concern for the rest of the season and so agree we match up well against everyone else including Tulsa. So Miss could be a trap game as well as they have lost to some quality teams and played them tough including Central Florida in OT.

But we have So Miss at home, and we all know what a great home-field advantage Ford Stadium offers....

[JasonB]

W-L over the last few years indicates that Ford actually does provide a home field advantage.

So Miss still can't throw, that is why I am not as worried about them.

[SMU_Alumni11]

If defense can do that every game, im not worried as much until we hit UCF and Tulsa

[SMUSIC 07]

[quote="JasonB"]W-L over the last few years indicates that Ford actually does provide a home field advantage.

I think that stat is misleading.
Since 2007 SMU has the fourth worst home record in C-USA. I wouldn't call 2 games over .500 an advantage. Granted this does include the two 1-11 seasons, but if there was a home-field advantage, those teams would have won some of the games that were close losses.

[SMUPhil]

I think that stat is aided by the fact that we SUCKED on the road for years.

[ponyboy]

Including the two 1-11 seasons COMPLETELY skews those stats. How are we at home compared to away the last three years?

[SMUSIC 07]

14-4 Home, 7-12 Road

I can't complain with 14-4 especially when 3 of those losses are to BCS teams (TCU and Navy x2). However, we got lucky: that is an extremely weak home game schedule. In my opinion there was only one quality win out of the bunch (Tulsa in 2010). The fact is, teams play better at home because they feel comfortable in the physical atmosphere of the field: the sightlines, the markings, the feel of the turf, etc. But the crowd is supposed to be the proverbial 12th man and help teams eke out the close games or even the games they are not supposed to win. As someone who was at all but one of those games (Houston deluge in 2010) I can tell you there is no advantage to playing in front of the SMU crowd. It's not a good thing, and I'm not happy about it. I'm just saying the HUGE advantage that other teams have at home is lacking at Ford.

[ponyboy]

Are we really that bad compared to other schools? Maybe I'm not able to tell because I'm always yelling and screaming.

[SMUSIC 07]

Forgot to add this:

In 2009, our biggest home win was by 8 points to SFA. The other 4 wins were by a combined 19 points.

The 1-11 teams couldn't stop the opposition. The 2007 and 2008 teams averaged 28 and 21 points per game respectively but they obviously gave up more. A good home crowd is supposed to aid the defense with noise so the offense have difficulty calling plays and whatnot. Didn't happen, and SMU lost 3 games in '07 by a combined 7 points (2 in OT) and 3 games in 2008 by less than a touchdown (5, 5, and 6 points).

SMU will need to improve on this to win home games against BE opponents.

[SMU2007]

if we can just score 4 defensive/special teams TDs and start our offense in the red zone a few more times, I think we should have success.

[SMUSIC 07]

Are we really that bad compared to other schools? Maybe I'm not able to tell because I'm always yelling and screaming.

I know that it's apples and oranges, but I've been to two OU games the past two years, and the crowds [deleted] away. They know when to get loud (without a noise meter on the scoreboard and some heavy metal riff playing on the PA), and the place is silent when OU has the ball. It's almost surreal to see that many people and hear so little noise. Old and young, they are all standing and making noise. It's a completely different culture than the show up late, leave early sit-down fans at Ford.

Kyle field is ridiculous, but again, apples and oranges.

Tech is the same way, though extremely d-o-u-c-h-e-y.

Point is, if we want to have a "big-school" football program, we've got to have a "big-school" feel to the games. We have 1.2 million people in just Dallas proper alone, 40,000 alumni living in the area, and we pale in comparison to cities like College Station, Norman, and Lubbock. Lubbock!!!!

Granted, people won't come to see an inferior product, but we're not helping to build it up.

I don't have a solution, so it's a moot point anyway. I'm just trying to defend my position that the fanbase has a looooooong way to go before we actually can garner a true home-field advantage.

[ponyboy]

Not arguing with your points. But, regardless of golf clapping types, home field advantage means you win at home and 14-4 sure seems to be winning at home even if you load your schedule up with Carl's Carburetor College & Electrolysis Academy.

Got an idea what, say, UCF's home and away record was the last three years?

[JasonB]

14-4 combined with beating houston at home and losing to tulane on the road sounds like for whatever reason, we do have a home field advantage.

[ponyboy]

Ok, at issue here is whether we have a home field advantage. (Not whether our golf clapping fans are wearing out their maine lobster print slacks standing up and down after every play). So I pulled UCF data from the last three years as a comparison.

UCF was 15-7 at home for a 68% home win percentage and 9-6 away for a 60% win percentage. The plus percentage at home, then, is 8% for UCF. So there's your standard. 8% bump being at home versus on the road.

As stated above, SMU the last three years was 14-4 at home for a 78% home win percentage and 7-12 away for a 37% win percentage. The "home bump" is 41% for SMU.

I'd say we have an advantage playing at home versus on the road based on this small data set.

[ojaipony]

Maybe I'm missing something. Help clarify if I'm wrong.

Who cares about UCF and SoMiss? SoMiss is not in our division and isn't UCF suspended? (OF COURSE we have to beat them, but can't we still play the CUSA championship game if we lose to them - somiss hasn't even won a single game yet - like Houston, SoMiss is NOT the SoMiss of year's past - this year's team is terrible).

We HAVE to beat Memphis, Rice, and Tulsa and that gets us to 6 wins plus one more game in the CUSA championship game. Tulsa becomes our super bowl if we can beat Memphis (better!) and Rice (not going to be easy). And Tulsa is over-rated and are "run heavy" which feeds into our strength on defense.

I like our chances.

And I will NEVER miss out on a Hawaii Bowl again!