Sagarin's Win/Loss Prediction for the Rest of Our Schedule

[redpony]

PS- I would say it is probably a little of both. We are playing much weaker teams than Baylor and aTm but we have also improved our play. I think we would still lose those first big games but perhaps by a lesser score.

[crazy horse]

Compare our offense in the Memphis and Houston games, against what we saw against SFA and UTEP. Gilbert, the OL and WRs are all performing much better now than earlier this year even against weaker teams. And no defense left on the schedule will rival A&M, TCU, or Baylor in talent.

4-0!

[redpony]

I will still argue that we could lose any of the Rice, UCF or Tulsa games. If we lose at UCF then this team may fold like they did last yr after So. Miss.

[ponyboy]

7 wins.

[crazy horse]

I agree. Anything can happen - injuries, turnovers, weather, a "let down" or whatever.

I just watched some of the SFA game. That first quarter was so painful to watch. The offense looked a whole lot sharper against Memphis and Houston. If that continues, along with the stellar play on defense, we have a very good shot in all 4 games.

[SMU_Alumni11]

Accepting, even being happy with 1 loss, is just sad. 4-0 ONLY

[ponyboy]

It's a different psychological approach than most coaches take, for sure. Problem with saying let's win all four is that the team will tend to tank after that first loss. Three of four gives the team "permission" to move on from a loss and win the others.

The negative of this approach is that a team might be within a touchdown or two of winning a game and give up -- which is NEVER acceptable. I prefer the one game at a time approach myself, but respect Jones' different style.

[SC Pony]

SMU is a nearly two point favorite versus Tulsa based on the predictor rankings and a 3.25 point home field advantage.

We are predicted to go 3-1 (of course two of the three predicted wins would be against teams ranked over 100).

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc12.htm

[ponyboy]

Actually, doing the math I believe there's a .06 point advantage in Tulsa's favor. Or a tossup in other words.