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Well, they only give us credit for a solid secondary. DL down, OL down, LBs sorta down, RB down, QB more of the same, WR sorta down.

I expect the OL to be about the same, QB better with fewer ints and more running plays. Shead or Line should do fine. I am hoping that Thompson has a break-out season, JJ continues to do well and someone else shows up.

Defense will not be as good, secondary will be better. Offense has to make up the difference.

What does that mean? If we can take TT or Rutgers we have a good shot at a bowl or at least 6 wins. I expect the offense to deliver it.

I expect us (Garrett Gilbert) to be vastly improved with a more dynamic offense thanks to a more dynamic rb in Traylon Shead and we win 6 games. If Houston and USF are as bad as they were this season then we could win 8 games.

Montana State
Memphis
Temple
UCONN
UCF

and Texas Tech/Rutgers/Houston/USF

couch 'em wrote:I agree that is low, but how many games did we win due purely to irreplaceable Margus?

Outside of his special teams play, he showed up in 2 games his whole career on defense....

I think #99 is too low, but I can appreciate his explanantion. Last year we benefitted from an insane amount of turnovers and points off turnovers. Hard to imagine a repeat of that kind of success. That means the offense will have to be more potent. I happen to think Gilbert and Shead/Line will be more productive, but defense takes a step back - at least in takeaways.

After watching some Big East games online recently, the competition is a little better than CUSA, but definitely not Big 12 better. UCONN, Temple and USF all look beatable. We don't play Louisville, and play at UC. Outside of those two, we have a shot in every game. Rutgers opens with Fresno, so that will provide a little insight into what to expect from Rutgers, another team I believe we can beat at Ford.

I say we win all home games except Tech* (Montana, Rutgers, Temple, UCONN, UCF).

And beat Memphis and USF on the road to get to 7 wins.

*I keep waiting for a June Jones coached SMU team to come out of the gate with a big, explosive win. Maybe this is the year?

PonyPlayer4 wrote:

couch 'em wrote:I agree that is low, but how many games did we win due purely to irreplaceable Margus?

Outside of his special teams play, he showed up in 2 games his whole career on defense....

Referring 100% to kick blocking. Totally chnged the other teams strategy. Many many field goals became 4-and-outs

Also don't forget Line is gone, nobody proven at all behind Jim

I always love the argument that goes, if we only didn't have these players we'd have sucked. Well, you did have those players, so find another argument. Same theme says, if we didn't have all these turnovers we'd have sucked. Good teams cause turnovers. So you did have those turnovers. Never take what if when you can have reality.

Grant Carter wrote:What is your prediction for our record? That is how he has ranked teams. You keep criticizing this guy because his analysis of the coming year's team does not fit into the range of the performance of the last four year's teams, but would it really be very insightful if he ranked everyone based on their Congrove 4 year trailing average?

Let me put it this way. If we only won the four as he predicted, we'd still be better than #99. Memphis, playing in the inferior CUSA, won four last year and was -- gasp -- #99. Don't forget harder conference, harder strength of schedule, higher ranking. 99 is way too low however you play it.

crazy horse wrote: I say we win all home games except Tech* (Montana, Rutgers, Temple, UCONN, UCF).

And beat Memphis and USF on the road to get to 7 wins.

*I keep waiting for a June Jones coached SMU team to come out of the gate with a big, explosive win. Maybe this is the year?

I think this is the way you have to look at the schedule (UCF will be a tough one). If we can't go 5-1 at home then we suck. Then, we BETTER beat Memphis. That puts us at 6 wins. Maybe 1 "shocker" win like TT. At USF is the "shocker" loss. Beat both and you have 8 wins and by far the best season post-DP. Hey, how about beating TCU and winning 9?!? (unfortunately, I don't see our interior defense holding up against TCU or TT unfortunately, but I hope it will).