I have concluded that if Notre Dame and OU win out, ND gets in.
Here is my rationale:
Last year, until the end, the committee had TCU over Baylor. If you recall, the rationale was the Minnesota game. I personally never understood why Minnesota kept being ranked by the committee. And in the end, I think the committee's entire logic was the long con to help the Big 10/Ohio State because, hey, Ohio State beat Minnesota on the road.
This year, the evidence for such a long con favors Notre Dame. That evidence? 8-1 Navy ranked higher than 10-0 Houston.
When the final rankings come out, they are going to pick Notre Dame, because, hey, look, they beat Navy, who the committee ranked the highest nonP5 team for weeks.
I think you are right on the money on this one. Navy ranked that high is because they want another good win on Notre Dame's resume. It's the committee's way of shoring up their options.
If OU and ND win out, how on Earth do you put OU in over ND?
OU's one loss (and they got thoroughly outplayed in that game) was to a team Notre Dame whipped by five TDs. ND's one loss was on the road, by 2 points, to the #1 team in the rankings
2005 PonyFans.com Rookie of the Year Award Recipient