SMUstangs22 wrote:If the Big 12 gets raided would we want in? Wouldnt they become the next AAC. Outside power status looking in? If they raid then TCU could also deliver DFW. Seems like regardless its a stretch at best.
Yes, we would want in. And it will happen at some point because of the revenue imbalance with the schools.
The biggest question is what is the number of top level schools when the merry-go-round stops. Right now the count is at 64. If all 5 stop at 14, then you get to 70. 80 is also a possibility because 16 team conferences make a lot of sense for certain reasons. I think 4 and 16 won't happen because some big names would get excluded when the Big 12 falls apart. 4 and 16 would have been a possibility if the ACC fell apart, but it is clear that won't happen now.
Our situation gets elevated right now with the Big 12 because we combo with Houston on a state infusion package. But when you look at the expansion candidates this is how they would line up right now outside in normal circumstances:
ND
BYU
Cincy
Houston
Memphis
Temple
UConn
Colo St
UCF
USF
Boise
SDSU
ECU
Hard to figure out where we lie in that list. History, airport, facilities, city, money are plusses. Size and last 20 years are killers. BYU and ND really only become part of the conversation if they expand to 80 because neither school is part of the Pac 12 conversation or Big 12 conversation right now. If the number goes to 80, we are a lock.
Worst case situation: Big 12 takes Houston, Cincy, Memphis, Temple. Pac stays local and takes SDSU and Colo St. I don't think the AAC leftovers will take from CUSA, so you will see some merger between the AAC and the better teams in the MWC.
I don't think that will happen, however. I think it is much more likely that the Pac 10, when they want to expand, gets sick of the west coast schools ignored in basketball and football and want to find a strong presence in the central US. It is a ranking and attention play as much as anything financial. They will try and steal UT and OU or go major market with SMU and Houston. The PAC won't go anywhere without a major airport because they will want to reduce travel expenses and student wear and tear. Getting to WSU is a pain as it stands. if they steal UT and OU, of course, that is when everything really blows up. But I think we are 6 years away from that happening.